After the Bears and Panthers combined to score 96 points last Sunday, you can imagine how popular these Bears “Overs” will be.
Go figure — I saw a Friday morning post from BetMGM’s John Ewing saying 87% of bettors have “Over” in Bears-Vikings.
Eight-y-seven-per-cent.
With that, naturally, every bone in my body wants to go “Under.”
We know you’re here for informed wagers and I assure you I vet everything through multiple handicappers, oddsmakers and betting buddies who know what they’re doing. Those that do well in this racket know the how, what and why, and that’s always my goal.
Also, this will never be the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the wagers I love the most and ones that I’m betting with my own money.
Let’s go to work.
(2026 Record: 3-5-1, -2.5 units)
We talked about the Ohio situation earlier this week. I’m being told QB1 Nick Poulos, currently listed as questionable, is not going to play. There’s also the matter of QB Matt Vezza being banged up, too. This line got smashed from South Alabama -4.5 to -7 on Tuesday and, naturally, some of the +7 was knocked back. I envision Poulos being ruled out tomorrow and that line getting back to -7 or higher. Find a 6.5 and hit it.
This Red Raiders team feels panicky. It obviously isn’t as strong on defense as it was last season, and now, head coach Joey McGuire is tinkering with more and more Thomas Castellanos at quarterback. That doesn’t exactly give me a ton of confidence in starter Will Hammond. Former bookmaker Ed Salmons told me he bet Houston +8.5 on the open and there’s plenty of sharp support throughout the week on the Cougars.
Sammy P’s Pick: Houston (+7.5)
I liked Ole Miss as a home dog before the whole charade with LSU’s injury report. In case you missed it, the Tigers surprisingly listed starting quarterback Sam Leavitt as “doubtful” on Wednesday night. Ole Miss was instantly bet from +3 to as low as +1, then it got shoved right back to 3. Now Leavitt is “questionable,” yet most people expect him to play. I still love this Ole Miss offense catching points and think the Rebels defense is good enough to slow LSU down. I also wouldn’t rule out Lane Kiffin going for two to win the game late.
Sammy P’s Pick: Ole Miss (+3)
I know, I know — the Titans stink. But the Philadelphia offense left a lot to be desired last Sunday afternoon. The Eagles only had 10 first downs against Washington. Ten. This game has all the ingredients to make an absolute rock fight and I think Robert Salah can scheme up a solid plan to negate what Jalen Hurts does well. You’ll hate my guts if Philly goes up 14-0 in the first quarter, but I’m plugging my nose and taking the seven here.
Sammy P’s Pick: Titans (+7)
If I heard the conversation at the water cooler correctly this past week, the Chiefs are good enough to make a playoff run and the Colts are missing the playoffs. Overreact much? Sure, Patrick Mahomes looked solid in his first game back from his torn ACL and LCL, but 168 of his 184 passing yards came after the catch. That’s an absurd stat. The Colts got blasted by Baltimore, but if they can get Jonathan Taylor going early, they should hang around on Sunday night.
