It’s time for this week’s Sportsbook Whispers.
As indicated in last week’s story, the whole world was indeed on SMU -3/-3.5 against Florida State in the Week 1 finale and any contrarian Seminoles bets pushed at +3 and cashed at +3.5.
All early movers on SMU at smaller numbers got to the window, as this number hovered between PK and -1.5 all summer.
Numbers matter!
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“We got crushed on SMU moneyline,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told me from Las Vegas. “So many people that placed a moneyline parlay over the weekend needed SMU to take care of business and they did.”
The Mustangs turned the ball over four times, but their offense truly did whatever it wanted to the tune of 585 total yards. Wise guys who make power ratings were impressed with SMU but much more unimpressed with FSU.
“I’ve downgraded Florida State six points in two weeks,” one former bookmaker-turned-bettor we’ll call Slice told me over the phone.
“That program continues to head in the wrong direction.”
Speaking of heading in the wrong direction, holy Clemson.
The Tigers got annihilated 51-10 by LSU in Baton Rouge. Lane Kiffin’s Tigers outgained Dabo Swinney’s Tigers by 499 yards and won the first down battle 38 to eight.
It was an a– kicking, plain and simple.
“I took Clemson from the level of Florida and dropped them to the level of Pittsburgh and Illinois,” Slice said. “That was alarming.”
“It’s difficult to determine after just one game whether a team is as good or as bad as they looked,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told me. “Clemson certainly didn’t show any positives in this matchup, but we’ve seen past examples where the first game can be misleading.
“Last year, Florida State’s performance against Alabama made Alabama look much worse than they were, while Florida State proved to be nowhere near as good as that result suggested. That’s why we try not to overreact too much to a single game. We’ll take the result into consideration, but it’s important to let more information develop before making drastic adjustments.”
One drastic adjustment came in the Heisman market, with Miami star receiver Malachi Toney. He was as high as 40/1 coming into the Canes’ cross-country clash with Stanford.
You can kiss that price goodbye.
“Toney was our biggest mover in the Heisman market,” Feazel reported. “He had an incredible performance to start his second season at Miami, which immediately caught the attention of bettors.
“We shortened him significantly from 35/1 to 10/1.”
Toney’s teammate, Darian Mensah, is now the Heisman favorite at +550, followed by Texas’ Arch Manning, Toney, Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss.
I had an interesting conversation with retired Vegas bookmaker Ed Salmons about the nuances of tinkering with power ratings after the first week. As you can imagine, not every hike or dip is created equal.
“I try not to go overboard on smaller teams that get drilled by much better teams,” Salmons said. “Take Florida Atlantic for instance. They played Florida and got drilled, but you can find good stuff in the middle of that game. I don’t lower them a ton because they got blasted by a much superior team.”
Then there’s a team like Michigan, who needed an extra play at the end of regulation to beat Western Michigan 13-12 as a 28-point home favorite.
Now the Wolverines host Oklahoma on FOX’s Big Noon Saturday. The look-ahead number hovered around Oklahoma -1 all summer and now almost every shop is out to Oklahoma -5.5.
Seems high, no?
“It’s either bet Michigan at a good number if it ticks up some or pass,” Salmons said. “There’s no way I would play Oklahoma here.”
Anything else?
“I think Ohio State and Texas should be a pick ‘em this Saturday,” Salmons admitted. “And I despise betting this Texas program as a favorite.
“I’ll be on the Buckeyes.”
