A year ago, Ohio State and Texas collided in a massive Week 1 showdown, with the Buckeyes notching a 14-7 home victory. It was among the most-bet college games all season.
So oddsmakers know what to expect when these two teams meet again, in easily the biggest game on the college football Week 2 oddsboard.
“Both teams are public darlings,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “This game will take a significant amount of money. It will probably still be top-five by the end of the year.”
Bookmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on a handful of notable matchups, including the FOX Big Noon Kickoff pitting Oklahoma against Michigan.
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Loving The Longhorns
Ohio State and Texas are both 1-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), with easy Week 1 tune-ups. The Buckeyes drubbed Ball State 56-3 as monster 50.5-point home favorites, while the Longhorns (-29.5) smoked visiting Texas State 59-7.
In turn, Caesars Sports gave a very slight edge to Texas for Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff. On Sunday, the Longhorns opened as 1.5-point home favorites, and that’s where the number sat Wednesday night.
“So far, we’re seeing two-way action. There’s a little bit more on the Longhorns and a little bit more on the Over,” Feazel said, noting a total that’s already climbed from 47.5 to 49.5. “I would not expect this total to keep getting higher.
“It may even go down. We may see some sharp action on the Under.”
As for the spread, Feazel doesn’t think two-way action will persist either.
“I think as we get closer to kickoff, we’re gonna see more Texas action,” he said. “The public is gonna come in on Texas late Friday and early Saturday.”
College Football Rocks On FOX
Another SEC-Big Ten battle starts Saturday’s festivities, when No. 11 Oklahoma travels to the Big House to face fortuitous Michigan at noon ET on FOX.
As everyone knows by now, the Wolverines pulled a great escape in Week 1. Michigan was a 27.5-point home favorite, yet needed a Hail Mary — two, in fact — to edge Western Michigan 13-12.
On the flip side, Oklahoma blanked UTEP 51-0 as a 40.5-point home favorite.
On Sunday afternoon, Caesars opened Oklahoma as a 5.5-point road favorite and quickly got out to -6/-6.5. The line has been steady at Sooners -5.5 since Monday afternoon.
“Despite Michigan playing poorly and Oklahoma looking good, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line go down to 4.5,” Feazel said, noting that before Week 1, the Oklahoma-Michigan lookahead line was Sooners -1.5. “Sharps tend to see some value in the overreaction.”
In fact, Michigan +6.5 drew sharp action. But come Saturday, there won’t be enough sharp money to overcome the public betting masses.
“It’s gonna be one-way traffic,” Feazel said. “The public is on the Sooners, with a lot bets written at -6.5 and more at -5.5. I don’t expect that to lighten up at all.”
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone is already involved with Oklahoma vs. Michigan. But he’s not looking at either side in this game.
Rather, he’s on the total, betting on Under 43.5.
That’s due in no small part to Michigan’s eyesore of a Week 1 showing. Stone noted that before the controversial 47-yard Hail Mary TD pass, Michigan had just 229 total yards.
“I believe Michigan is going to keep it tight for at least three quarters,” Stone said. “And if it’s close, it’s going to be a defensive slugfest, not an offensive track meet. Oklahoma has one of the nation’s top defenses, but still lacks playmakers on offense, outside of receiver Isaiah Sategna.
“First team to 21 wins.”
Eliminator Game?
The Group of 6 will again have one team in the College Football Playoff. Memphis or Boise State could potentially be that team.
Memphis is already 2-0 SU and ATS, including a solid victory over UNLV in Week 0. The Tigers were 4.5-point road underdogs and won 27-21.
Boise State is 0-1 SU and ATS, but had second-ranked Oregon in big trouble last weekend. The Broncos were 24.5-point road underdogs and led 17-7 late in the second quarter.
Boise State stuck around throughout, but ultimately lost 34-27.
Feazel said this 6 p.m. ET kickoff could see quite a bit more action than you’d expect.
“It might be sneakily up there in handle,” Feazel said. “We’re at Boise State -8.5, that’s what we opened at, and that’s what they’re betting, too. There’s more on Boise State and more on the Over.”
The total opened at 54.5 and sits there on Wednesday night, though it poked up to 55.5 for several hours Sunday.
Big 12 vs. B1G
Iowa and Iowa State renew their annual instate hostilities for a 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday start.
There are times in this series when neither team can put up 14 points. Or both. In 2022, Iowa State won a 10-7 snoozer on the road. Last year, the Cyclones won a 16-13 slog at home.
Yet this year, the No. 22 Hawkeyes (1-0 SU and ATS) are 14-point home favorites at Caesars. Oddsmakers seemed at least a little intrigued by Iowa’s 40-0 punchout of Northern Illinois last week, when the Hawkeyes were 29.5-point home favorites.
And bettors are interested in the Hawkeyes this week.
“We’re seeing more Iowa money coming in, and that’s to be expected,” Feazel said. “Fourteen points for a team that usually doesn’t score a lot is a lot to ask. But bettors feel it’s worth the squeeze on Iowa -14, and I don’t anticipate that changing.”
