Last season’s College Football Playoff ended with Indiana lifting the trophy after a 27-21 victory over Miami. So it’s no surprise this season to see the Hoosiers featured in FOX’s opening Big Noon Kickoff.
Equally unsurprising in College Football Week 1 odds: Curt Cignetti’s squad is quite popular, even though it’s nearly a six-touchdown home favorite vs. North Texas.
“Action is one way. They’re laying the 40 points with Indiana,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their Week 1 college football betting insights on a handful of the most notable matchups.
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High On The Hoosiers
Indiana was great on the field all of last season, then late in the year became a betting-window behemoth. In their last five games, the Hoosiers went 5-0 straight up (SU) and 4-1 against the spread (ATS).
That included an impressive three-game win-and-cover streak:
- A 13-10 victory over Ohio State as a 3.5-point underdog in the Big Ten title game
- A 38-3 blowout of Alabama as a 7.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals
- A 56-22 beatdown of Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite in the CFP semis.
Indiana then capped its 16-0 SU season with that victory over Miami in the CFP championship game, falling just short of covering as a 7.5-point favorite.
The public betting masses often remember what they last saw and react to it. That’s the case at Caesars with North Texas vs. Indiana, in a noon ET Saturday kickoff on FOX.
Caesars opened the Hoosiers as massive 40.5-point favorites, briefly went to Indiana -41.5, then actually backed up to -39.5. As of Wednesday afternoon, it’s Hoosiers -40.
North Texas was great to bettors throughout last season, going 12-2 SU/10-4 ATS. But things have greatly changed since then.
“North Texas is not the same team as last year. Coach Eric Morris and the majority of the team moved on to Oklahoma State,” Feazel said, while noting the Hoosiers are 19-10 ATS over the last two seasons. “Indiana has been very good to bettors the past couple years.
“We anticipate a lot more bets coming in on Indiana by kickoff.”
Lane Leads LSU
Lane Kiffin enters his first season as head coach for the Tigers (Getty Images).
Clemson vs. LSU is arguably the biggest Saturday game in college football Week 1 odds. Dabo Swinney is trying to put Clemson back on the CFP map, while a new era begins at LSU under Lane Kiffin.
Caesars opened LSU as a 9.5-point home favorite and stretched to -10.5 on Aug. 19. The line has been at LSU -10 since Monday.
“There was a little pushback at 10.5,” Feazel said, alluding to Clemson interest. “It’s two-way action, but I anticipate that changing once we get closer to game time. I expect more action on LSU, especially on parlays and moneyline parlays.”
Feazel also noted early sharp money on Under 51.5, with the total dipping to 50.5.
Top-25 Tilt
No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss is the lone Week 1 meeting of Top 25 teams. The Rebels, behind QB Trinidad Chambliss, are coming off a stellar 13-2 SU campaign (9-6 ATS).
Kiffin led that charge in the regular season, before darting to LSU. Pete Golding then guided Ole Miss all the way to the CFP semifinals, where the Rebels lost a thriller to Miami, 31-27, as 3.5-point underdogs.
Golding then went from interim to full-time Ole Miss coach. And with Chambliss returning this year, bettors are high on the Rebels in college football Week 1 odds.
Ole Miss opened -6.5 at Caesars and is up to -7 as of Wednesday afternoon, for a 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday neutral-site game in Nashville.
“No surprise, we’re seeing more Ole Miss action coming in. I wouldn’t expect that to change, with the depth and talent of this team,” Feazel said. “The Rebels have one of the better quarterbacks in this draft class, and Chambliss is getting action on Heisman Trophy odds, too.”
On-Campus Sharp Side
Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin is also at 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday, going up against Louisville-Ole Miss. It’s a quasi-neutral-site game at Lambeau Field, 2.5 hours from the Badgers’ campus.
College football betting expert Paul Stone picked Notre Dame to win the national title. However, he’s not on the Fighting Irish in Week 1, at least on the spread as a 20.5-point favorite.
Stone believes Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph could keep the Badgers within the lofty number. Stone recommends taking the points, and he actually got Wisconsin at +21.
Joseph played last season at Old Dominion, where he threw for 2,624 yards and ran for another 1,007, accounting for a total of 34 touchdowns.
“In Old Dominion’s season-opening 27-14 loss at Indiana last year, Joseph broke free for long touchdown runs of 75 and 78 yards,” Stone said. “If Joseph can use his legs to generate some offense, I think the Badgers can keep it within the generous number.”
On the flip side, the public masses — as expected — are on Notre Dame this week.
“Notre Dame has been one of the championship futures darlings, and that’s gonna translate into action on Week 1,” Feazel said. “Right now, we’re seeing heavy, heavy action on Notre Dame.
“Although 20.5 is a lot of points, that’s not stopping bettors from laying that number here, even for a game in Wisconsin’s backyard.”
Oh Say Can You ACC
College football Week 1 odds wrap up with a Monday night ACC clash. SMU travels to Florida State for a 7:30 p.m. ET kick.
The Seminoles are coming off two straight sub-.500 seasons. Then in last week’s season opener, the ‘Noles (1-0 SU/0-1 ATS) were unimpressive in a 34-17 win as hefty 31.5-point home favorites vs. New Mexico State.
With those elements in mind, the Mustangs are a growing road favorite this week at Caesars.
“Florida State played last week and struggled against the number,” Feazel said. “So we saw some line movement as a result, from SMU -1.5 through -2 and -2.5, up to -3.
“There’s pressure pushing back on the 3. It’s gonna be a highly bet game, and so far, bettors are backing SMU. I expect action to be one-sided on SMU leading up to game day.”
