A short, complete list of the races which Tadej Pogačar has entered and not won in 2026: Paris-Roubaix, and the Vuelta a España. At the former, the world champion finished second. At the latter, things were progressing normally – ie, the Slovenian was cruising to victory, four minutes ahead of his nearest rival – until he crashed on Saturday, proving that nothing is ever inevitable in cycling.
In the eyes of many cycling commentators, the Vuelta’s red jersey had been all but handed to the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider before a pedal had been turned in anger, but after seven stages, things looked sewn up, with three stage wins, and a comfortable winning margin with two weeks still to go. Record books had been searched for the last rider to lead a race for all 21 days, and accounts of one of the all-time great years were being prepared. There had even been a scare on a descent on stage six, which Pogačar survived, because luck is always on his side. Until it wasn’t.
News editor at Cycling Weekly, Adam brings his weekly opinion on the goings on at the upper echelons of our sport. This piece is part of The Leadout, a newsletter series from Cycling Weekly and Cyclingnews. To get this in your inbox, subscribe here. As ever, email adam.becket@futurenet.com – should you wish to add anything, or suggest a topic.
We are left with a race then, devoid of the best bike rider in the world, but one now with an engaging battle for the overall crown, one which feels could go one of four ways, if not more. The biggest star has departed, but the Vuelta now feels wide open, shorn of its overwhelming favourite.
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After Jonas Vingegaard’s exhibition at the Giro d’Italia, and Pogačar romping to a fifth Tour de France title, we have a Grand Tour on our hands that isn’t pre-destined, and one which has a serious chance of going to a new winner, for the first time since the 2023 edition, won by Sepp Kuss. But who is best placed to pounce?
The man in red currently is Enric Mas of Movistar, who had never led his home Grand Tour until Sunday, who finished second thrice at the race between 2018 and 2022. A Mas victory would be unexpected, given he finished 32nd at the Giro d’Italia earlier this year, and last finished in the top 10 of a WorldTour stage race at the Critérium du Dauphiné last June. However, the Movistar rider is an expert at the Vuelta, and everything is unexpected right now.
Behind him is Primož Roglič, a man used to winning the Vuelta, four times in fact. The Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe rider is 1:18 behind Mas, but has come into the race after a strange season, which has seen him only win in the TT at the Slovenian National Championships. Like Mas, he has the experience, but his actual form remains a bit of a mystery. The deeper into this race he goes in contention, however, the more likely that the old Roglič will turn up.
In third at the moment is Felix Gall of Decathlon CMA CGM, who is having the best season of his career so far, already having finished second at the Giro d’Italia, minutes behind Vingegaard. The Austrian, on paper, is perhaps the biggest threat, but he is 1:39 behind Mas. However, with multiple serious mountain stages to come, could be the rider to beat, although the 32km time trial on stage 18 could be his undoing. That said, his other main rivals, apart from Roglič, will be similarly wary of the day against the clock.
Finally, Netcompany-Ineos’ Oscar Onley is looking the part for his new-ish team after a season interrupted by illness and injury. He’s 2:20 behind Mas, but in the see-saw fresh start of this Vuelta, that might not be as much as it looks on the results sheet. He has already gone further in the Vuelta than ever before; in 2023 he lasted just one stage, and having got over stomach problems, touch wood, should get better through the race. Gall beat him at the Vuelta a Burgos last month, and a TT is not his strong suit, but the 23-year-old is making up for lost time. An Onley triumph is not improbable, which would have seemed improbable just three days ago.
They are not alone, but they are the four within two minutes of each other. Richard Carapaz, Mattias Skjelmose and Sepp Kuss are all not completely out of the race, with the former and the latter knowing what it takes to win over three weeks. However, I think we will see one of the top four in red in Granada in just under two weeks. Whoever wins, it will be a surprise – either Roglič after his odd season, writing himself into the record books, or a new Grand Tour champion in Mas, Gall, or Onley. It’s game on.
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