Week 8 is (kinda) the NFL halfway point.
That went by fast, didn’t it?
Here’s where I’m putting my money ahead of this weekend.
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The Packers have no running game and are completely reliant on Jordan Love throwing it nearly every down. With his attempts prop set at 35.5, and considering he’s averaging nearly 40 throws per game, I’ll go Over.
Desperation time for the last-place Ravens, as they sit at 4-3 and face the Bills and Jaguars in a five-day span. The last three meetings between these teams have all been decided by a field goal or less, and I’m going to forecast two-time MVP Lamar Jackson making his return. I like the Ravens to keep this game close.
Hill’s Pick: Ravens +3
The Bengals are fourth in the NFL in points per game, and surprisingly, eighth in the league in points per game allowed. I like the well-balanced Bengals to bury the hapless Titans.
Hill’s Pick: Bengals -11
The Cowboys made a concerted effort last week to run the ball more, including seldom-used backup running back Jordan Goodson getting 10 carries for 38 yards. Goodson’s rush prop is set at 19.5. I’ll go Over against a vulnerable Arizona run defense that is near the bottom of the league, allowing over 126 yards per game.
Hill’s Pick: Jordan Goodson Over 19.5 rushing yards
The Vikings are 6-0 and the star of their offense has been kicker Will Reichard, who once again kicked three field goals last week in a 16-10 win over the Colts. I’ll go Over 1.5 makes this week against a weak Lions defense.
Hill’s Pick: Will Reichard Over 1.5 made field goals
The Raiders’ 3-0 start is a distant memory, but they are simply a much better-coached team than their opponent Sunday, so I’ll pick them to snap their four-game losing streak.
Hill’s Pick: Raiders +1.5
The first-place Browns are getting 3.5 points in Pittsburgh on Sunday and the total is 39.5. In what should be a close, low-scoring game, I’ll take the points with the surprising Browns.
Hill’s Pick: Browns +3.5
The Falcons upset the 49ers last week, but a closer look at the box score reveals there was some good fortune, as the Falcons were out-gained by 1.5 yards per play and won the turnover battle 4-0. I’ll back the underrated Bucs off their blowout win in Carolina.
Hill’s Pick: Buccaneers -2.5
The Colts have spent the week shipping off talent, as they are clearly in rebuilding mode. I predict they will struggle this week in Jacksonville.
Hill’s Pick: Colts Under 17.5
The Chargers are somehow still winless entering November, but they are off of a bye. At some point, the Bolts will somewhat resemble the team they were supposed to be prior to the season. I’ll take them to keep it close in the battle of Los Angeles.
Hill’s Pick: Chargers +6.5
These teams met in Week 1, and it was Chiefs’ running back Kenneth Walker that embarrassed the Denver defense, rushing for 173 yards. I expect the Broncos to remember that and make it a point of emphasis to not let it happen again.
Hill’s Pick: Kenneth Walker Under 89.5 rushing yards
The Dolphins have been feisty this year and are coming off of their first victory. Quarterback Malik Willis’ rush prop is set at 34.5. He’s cleared this number in four of six games.
Hill’s Pick: Malik Willis Over 34.5 rushing yards
The Commanders being favored by six over the Eagles doesn’t feel right, but the Eagles have dropped five straight and have been completely decimated by injuries. I like the Commanders to win by a touchdown.
Hill’s Pick: Commanders -6
Sam Darnold has thrown eight interceptions in just over five games played this season. Even against a shaky Bears defense, I’ll bet on Darnold to throw one to the wrong team.
