Sometimes, how good — or bad — a result is depends on which oddsmaker is relaying the news. NFL Week 4 odds provided a good case in point.
The Vikings were 9.5-point home favorites vs. the Dolphins. With Minnesota up 15-10 just before the two-minute warning, tight end T.J. Hockenson could’ve scored and likely given the Vikes a 22-10 win and cover.
Instead, he slid down just before the goal line, and QB Kyler Murray then ran out the clock on three kneel-downs.
“We needed the Vikings. If Hockenson scores, that’s a huge difference for us,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said Sunday night.
Alternatively, from BetMGM trading manager Adair Horne: “We ended up with a nice result due to the late kneel by Hockenson. If he had scored the touchdown, it would have been in our top-two worst results for the week.”
Oddsmakers from Las Vegas and across the country chimed in to recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
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Over the first three weeks of the season, Josh Allen and the Bills erased most of the Rams’ edge in Super Bowl futures odds. The two teams are now virtually co-favorites at several sportsbooks.
And the public betting masses expected Buffalo to keep rolling in Week 4, as a 7-point home favorite vs. the Patriots. But New England didn’t get the memo.
Drake Maye led a late 73-yard touchdown drive, capped by a 23-yard touchdown pass to Efton Chism III, and the Pats upset the Bills 29-26.
“While bettors enjoyed several marquee wins throughout the [early] slate, the Patriots’ shocker remained the result that did the most damage to parlays and gave the book its biggest sigh of relief,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
The Jaguars topping the Bengals 22-17 as 2.5-point road underdogs, and the Cowboys outlasting the Texans 34-30 as 3-point road underdogs also dinged the masses in Sunday’s nine-game early window.
“Beyond the massive New England upset over Buffalo, a couple of under-the-radar results helped the house,” Feazel said. “Jacksonville and Dallas both chipped away at customer profits, making for a rare week where the book was happy to be a Cowboys fan.”
At BetMGM, Horne also highlighted the Pats and Cowboys wins, along with the Panthers’ 32-26 Sunday night upset as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Lions.
“Overall, it was not the best day for bettors, with a few outsiders winning and only four favorites covering the spread,” Horne said.
Carolina was one of those outsiders, helping blow up plenty of moneyline parlays that finished with Detroit on Sunday night. Based on BetMGM’s closing numbers, the Colts, Rams, Bears and 49ers were the only favorites to cover.
Drake Maye and the Pats turned Bills bettors into losers on Sunday (Getty Images).
Performing For The Public
Horne pointed to three games that fell most favorably for BetMGM customers.
“The biggest losers for the book this week were the Colts vs. Commanders, Ravens vs. Titans and Steelers vs. Browns,” Horne said.
Indianapolis was a 5-point favorite and beat Washington 30-13 in London, in a game that saw Commanders QB Marcus Mariota suffer an early knee injury. South Point’s Andrews concurred with Horne on that result.
“We really needed the Commanders, and the quarterback gets hurt in the first quarter,” Andrews lamented.
Cleveland was a 2.5-point home ‘dog in the Thursday night game and beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on a waning-seconds field goal.
Baltimore built a 24-7 halftime lead over Tennessee, but didn’t have Lamar Jackson for the second half due to an ankle sprain. The Ravens still won 24-18, while failing to cover as hefty 11.5-point favorites.
However, Baltimore was seen as a Bingo free space in countless moneyline parlays. So just by winning, regardless of margin, the Ravens were a shot in the arm for the betting public.
Plus, per usual, Ravens running back Derrick Henry was hugely popular in the First Touchdown Scorer/Anytime Touchdown Scorer markets. Henry gave the masses a two-for-one by scoring the first TD, less than three minutes into the game.
Other notable wins for the bettors: the Rams, Giants and Bears.
“The Rams’ comeback and cover was the standout game result, paying off for bettors both pregame and in-play,” Feazel said. “The ever-popular Giants also delivered, while the Bears were among the biggest team winners of the day.”
The Rams trailed the Eagles 20-10 well into the fourth quarter. But L.A. scored two TDs in the final four minutes to win 24-20 and cover as a 3.5-point road favorite.
The Giants were 2.5-point home underdogs to the Cardinals and trailed 14-3 in the first quarter. But New York ultimately turned the game into a shootout and clinched a 36-24 win on Deonte Banks’ 98-yard interception return for a touchdown as time expired.
The Bears were never really threatened by the hapless Jets, winning 23-12 as 3.5-point home favorites.
The Rams’ comeback win over Philly was a boon for bettors (Getty Images).
On Campus
As much as the public betting masses wanted nothing to do with Florida against Ole Miss in Week 4, they were all over the Gators in Week 5 at Missouri.
Florida was a 5.5-point favorite and was among the most-bet teams at all the big national sportsbooks. BetMGM’s Saturday pretty much hinged on whether Florida covered the spread.
Interestingly, much like Ole Miss imploded against Florida, losing 52-28, the Gators got flattened by Mizzou 45-17.
“It was a topsy-turvy day for the book,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “But Mizzou outright was a colossal result, especially on the in-play book.”
Indeed, bettors jumped on Florida as it fell behind 20-10 at halftime, certain that a big Gators comeback was looming. It wasn’t.
“That’s what really made that game a huge winner for the book, on top of the lopsided pregame need,” Magee said.
Notre Dame also bit the public masses Saturday by failing to cover as a 21-point road favorite vs. North Carolina. The Tar Heels made this game far more interesting than expected, pulling within 21-20 on Jaden Jefferson’s 98-yard kick return to open the second half.
Carolina ultimately lost 37-26, but easily covered the spread.
Magee noted a couple of favorable outcomes for the customers.
“Bettors had a great result on Ohio State winning big at Iowa, and also had a nice outing on Miami covering against Clemson,” he said.
The Buckeyes were 14.5-point favorites and notched a 31-14 win and cover. The Hurricanes had even less trouble, rumbling to a 41-13 victory as 14-point road favorites.
