NASCAR Contender Rankings: Which Driver Takes Top Spot Ahead Of The Chase?

Who has the best chance to win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series title?

Welcome to the FOX Sports Contender Rankings. Now that the regular season is over, the focus is on the 16 drivers in The Chase.

I have ranked the top-10 contenders based on what I believe their chances are to win the title and will update each week with a short outlook to the upcoming track.

On The Verge (Alphabetical Order):

Chris Buescher (RFK Racing No. 17 Ford, -70 points behind leader): He’s too inconsistent. He nearly won at Darlington in 2024 but has just one top five there in Next Gen era.

William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet, -85): He just hasn’t had the pace this year. Maybe Darlington, where he won in May 2023, will be the place he finds it.

Austin Cindric (Team Penske 2 Ford, -95): His fifth place at Darlington earlier this year was his first top 10, so if he can get off to a good start, maybe he can be a factor.

Ryan Preece (RFK Racing No. 60 Ford, -100): He vaulted himself into The Chase but does that make him a contender? He has never had a top 10 in Darlington.

Daniel Suárez (Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevy, -75): He only has seven top 10s this year and will need more than that over the next 10 races to win the title (and has just two career top 10s at Darlington).

Bubba Wallace (23XI Racing No. 23 Toyota, -90): He has been so up and down, so who knows? He has potential at Darlington with five top 10s.

Contender Rankings

Hocevar could just as easily finish in the top five in the standings as he could 16th. He has speed and an aggressive attitude, which pays dividends but can also be costly. He has a ninth and a fourth in his last two Darlington starts.

Logano is a three-time Cup champion and knows how to handle the pressure. The question is whether he has enough speed. He won the first Next Gen race at Darlington in 2022 but has only one top 10 in his last eight starts there and was awful there in April.

Elliott has led laps in just three of the last nine races, and that likely won’t be enough to be a threat. He doesn’t have a top five in Darlington in his last eight starts, so getting off to a good start in the Chase could be a challenge.

Larson’s winless streak has reached 50 races. What’s wild is he has led 659 laps this year without a victory. He will likely need some fortune and others to have some misfortune to have a shot at the title, but his resume includes wins at eight of the 10 Chase tracks. He won at Darlington in 2023, but it’s also a place where he’s visited the medical center a little more than he would like.

Gibbs just probably needs a little more experience and a little more polish to challenge for The Chase title. He was second at Darlington in May 2024 and was sixth in April, so if he can start off strong, he could be more of a factor.

Briscoe tends to hang around to give himself a chance, and this JGR No. 19 team is well tested in the postseason. He has won the last two Southern 500s, although he was 12th at this track in the spring. 

Reddick is a two-time O’Reilly Series champion, so he is used to performing under pressure. The question is can he regain the momentum he had when he won the first three races of 2026 and then added two more to give him five wins in the first nine events. One of those was Darlington, so he has to feel good with The Chase starting there.

The 2023 Cup champion has consistently been the best Ford this year with three victories. He was third at Darlington in the spring for his best finish ever at the track. His pit crew has not always performed to a championship level, and that could be the key. He also needs to keep earning stage points, as he has earned the most of any driver in the regular season.

Bell doesn’t have a win this year but he already has a career-best 11 top-five finishes — including seven second-place finishes this year. He has been more consistent in racking up the stage points as of late, and he will need to continue to do that in The Chase. He has mixed results at Darlington, where he finished third in the 2024 Southern 500.

Hamlin saw his 89-point regular-season lead on Ryan Blaney cut to 25 as part of The Chase reset and that was after having at least a 250-point gap on all but Blaney, Reddick and Gibbs. So he is the favorite going into The Chase. Hamlin has a win and three top fives in the Next Gen era at Darlington. He has won at all of The Chase tracks in his career.