The 2026 UCI Road World Championships week is coming to a close in Montréal, and all eyes are on the elite road races this weekend. A brutally attritional course awaits, and Tadej Pogačar is out of contention for the men’s race. Suddenly, the race predictions look considerably harder to call.
Pundits, riders, fans and bookmakers all have their picks. We asked AI to weigh in and provide its predictions, along with the bookmaker odds.
The predictions are ChatGPT’s picks for who will win and join them on the podium. But the percentages translate bookmakers’ betting prices into an implied chance of winning. The two numbers don’t always agree. For example, AI narrowly chose Del Toro for the men’s road race, while the bookmaker’s favourite is Evenepoel.
AI’s predictions for the elite time trials were spot on, but then again, Marlen Reusser and Remco Evenepoel, both defending champions, were the all-out favourites. Betting against them would have been a risk. Will it be correct about the road races, too?
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|
Date |
Race |
AI’s Likely Winner |
AI’s Other Podium Picks |
|---|---|---|---|
|
September 26 |
Women’s Elite RR |
Demi Vollering — 58.3% |
Katarzyna Niewiadoma — 6.7%; Elisa Longo Borghini — 6.7% |
|
September 27 |
Men’s Elite RR |
Isaac del Toro — 25.0% |
Remco Evenepoel — 30.8%; Paul Seixas — 20.0% |
*Odds sources include bwin, BetUS, The and Sports Geek.
Women’s elite road race: another Vollering–Niewiadoma showdown?
(Image credit: Getty Images)
The Race:
The 180.4km route includes eight laps of Montréal’s 13.4km Mount Royal circuit and a total of 2,570 metres of climbing.
What AI predicts:
In its predictions, AI reproduced the Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift podium, favouring Dutch rider Demi Vollering‘s attacking strength over Kasia Niewiadoma-Phinney (Poland) and Elisa Longo Borghini (Italy). Its concern was a less selective finale.
“If [Belgian’s Lotte Kopecky] survives the final climbs with the leaders, the finishing-speed balance changes sharply in her favour,” AI said of Belgian Lotte Kopecky.
Our race favourites:
Even after pre-riding the course myself, I’m finding it difficult to make definitive predictions. Yet it would be silly to bet against Demi Vollering. The Dutch woman is the top favourite, with the results to back it up. This season, she not only won both Grand Tours she entered but dominated in the spring as well, winning Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, the Tour of Flanders, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and La Flèche Wallonne.
Undulating and attritional, this course certainly suits someone who excels in punchy Ardennes Classics races, and that includes Vollering. She’s also lining up with a strong Dutch squad who are “all in” for Vollering, so it would be quite a surprise if she does not end up in the medals.
In the Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift in August, Kasia Niewiadoma-Phinney was Vollering’s main rival. But historically, the Polish rider hasn’t had the best luck at the World Championships.
She won bronze in Leuven in 2021, but since then, her best result was a 10th-place finish in Kigali last year. Still, with wins at the Amstel Gold, Flèche Wallonne and Trofeo Binda to her name, this course could be a turning point for the Pole.
Another rider I’ll be looking at is Kim Le Court-Pienaar (Mauritius). With only one other compatriot in the race, she won’t have the level of team support that her rivals can rely on, but the course suits her strengths. With wins at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Tour of Britain overall and stages in Tour de France Femmes avec Zwift, she specialises in long, rolling terrain and steep, punchy climbs.
Similar in ability to Le Court is Belgian’s Lotte Kopecky. But she’s a bit of a question mark. The former World Champion does well on the punchy climbs and took some resounding wins this season at Milan-San Remo, Nokere Koerse and a stage of La Vuelta Femenina. But we haven’t seen much of her later in the summer, and it’s hard to gauge how her form is.
The World Championships are notorious for delivering surprise winners – just ask Magdeleine Vallières Mill. As such, there are a few dark horses I’ll throw in: Kate Courtney (USA), Paula Blasi (Spain) and Franzi Koch (Germany).
Men’s elite road race: Del Toro gets AI’s vote
(Image credit: Getty Images)
The Race:
The 273.7km route includes more than 3,800m of elevation gain and 12 laps of the Mount Royal circuit and Camillien-Houde climb (2.3km at 6.2%).
What AI predicts:
Bookmakers say Remco Evenepoel (Belgium) will follow up his time trial medal from earlier this week with another gold on Sunday. But AI’s vote went to Mexican star Isaac del Toro, pointing to del Toro’s victory in the GP de Montréal earlier this month.
“The counterargument is national-team support,” AI argued with itself, explaining that Del Toro will race without the UAE team support that normally surrounds him in trade-team competition.
What we predict:
Yes, Evenepoel is indeed a clear favourite after his win in the time trial this past Sunday, but he’s far from the only one. Belgium is lining up with both Evenepoel and Wout van Aert as co-leaders, giving the team options but also a tactical challenge. Evenepoel can attack from distance, while Van Aert provides a formidable option if a small group reaches the finish together. The question is whether Belgium can make those strengths work together.
Still, Evenepoel’s palmares speaks for itself. Beyond his time-trialling and climbing prowess, the 26-year-old has long proven himself in punchy one-day races, with wins at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Amstel Gold Race, Clasica San Sebastian, and Worlds to his name. His recent win at the GP de Québec is another reason to expect him at the sharp end on Sunday.
But Van Aert is having quite the year himself. His Paris-Roubaix victory in the spring, followed by two stage wins and the green jersey at the Vuelta a España, suggests he’s arriving with both confidence and form. The repeated climbs could take the sting out of his sprint, but he’s exceptionally good at surviving hard races and still finding something extra at the finish.
Another rider everyone will be watching is France’s Paul Seixas. Having only just turned 20, he’s young enough to remain something of a question mark, but his results are already those of a serious contender. This season, he won La Flèche Wallonne and the overall at Itzulia Basque Country, finished fourth in the Tour de France and took second at the GP de Montréal. Clearly, the terrain suits him.
Then there’s Mathieu van der Poel (Netherlands), who’s playing down his chances and suggesting the course might be a little too difficult for him. The accumulated climbing is a fair concern, but betting against him would be unwise. The former World Champion’s 174km solo victory at the Tour of Luxembourg last week suggests he’s in form. So if the favourites hesitate or let the race come back together, he’s exactly the rider who could make them regret it.
And finally, a dark horse pick:
Team USA is lining up with a very deep field. It’s hard to tell whether they’ll go for Brandon McNulty, who has won in Montréal before, or Quinn Simmons. Et GP de Montréal earlier this month, McNulty and Simmons placed third and fourth, respectively. Then, in the time trial last Sunday, McNulty was just 12 seconds off from a medal, so his form is certainly there. Speaking to Cycling Weekly earlier this week, he said: “I think there’s a chance. If we do everything perfect, to have a good shot at a medal.”
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