College football Week 10 odds have a host of huge games attracting bettors’ attention. But the matchups don’t get any bigger than Miami vs. Notre Dame.
Last year’s meeting — won by the Hurricanes at home (27-24) in Week 1 — was ultimately pivotal to the College Football Playoff. This year, with the Fighting Irish at home, both teams aim to stay on track for the CFP.
To say Miami-Notre Dame will be well bet is an understatement.
“We’ve had this game circled for weeks on our calendar,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “By Saturday evening, it would not be surprising to see this become one of the biggest-bet college football games of the season.”
Bookmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that matchup, along with unbeaten UCLA vs. Minnesota on FOX, the SEC showdowns of Alabama vs. LSU and Georgia vs. Ole Miss, and more in college football Week 10 betting.
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Notre Dame ended up the odd man out in last season’s CFP, failing to make the 12-team field. Miami made the Playoff and ultimately got all the way to the title game before losing to Indiana.
This year, the first CFP rankings of the season landed on Tuesday night, and the Fighting Irish are No. 11 — which means they don’t really have any wiggle room.
Notre Dame is 7-1 straight up (SU) and 4-4 against the spread (ATS), having lost at BYU 28-24 in Week 7. On the flip side, Miami (8-0 SU/5-3 ATS) is No. 1 in the CFP rankings and can take a huge step toward locking in its Playoff spot with a road victory in this 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
And it would be an upset if that happened. Caesars Sports opened Notre Dame -4.5, got to -5.5 in short order on Sunday, then Wednesday made stops at -6/-6.5/-7 on the way to -7.5 (-102).
One key reason for the Wednesday moves: Miami wideout Malachi Toney, who was among the top contenders in Heisman Trophy odds, is out Saturday — and likely much longer — after suffering an ankle injury in practice.
“We’re still seeing decent two-way action,” Feazel said on Thursday afternoon. “They’re taking Notre Dame on the spread and Miami on the moneyline.”
That includes sharp play on Notre Dame -4.5.
“Our best-case scenario right now is Notre Dame winning by 1-5, but we anticipate that being 1-7 by game day. We’re hoping for that Super Bowl middle on our side,” Feazel said.
CJ Carr will look to make a Heisman and NFL Draft statement against Miami (Getty Images).
Oh Say Can You SEC
The SEC has four matchups with CFP ramifications on Saturday. The two biggest are No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 14 LSU and No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 Ole Miss.
Alabama (6-2 SU/4-4 ATS) has the higher ranking, but LSU (6-2 SU/4-4 ATS) is approaching a touchdown favorite in this 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Tigers opened -4.5 at Caesars and were up to -6 on Thursday afternoon.
“Our customer base in Louisiana has consistently taken LSU this year,” Feazel said. “So we’re seeing more LSU action here, and more Over action. But we never don’t see Alabama money. There are a few takers on Alabama moneyline.”
With that in mind, it’s possible Caesars will want another of those Super Bowl middles: LSU winning and Alabama covering. The need on the total is already much more certain.
“We’re definitely gonna need the Under,” Feazel said.
The total is at 52.5, up a tick from the 52 opener.
At 7:30 p.m. ET — going against Miami-Notre Dame — No. 2 Georgia (7-1 SU/6-2 ATS) visits No. 10 Ole Miss (6-2 SU/4-4 ATS). Caesars opened the Bulldogs as 3-point road favorites, and it’s been Georgia -3.5 almost all week.
“These are two heavily-backed public teams,” Feazel said. “Action is pretty much balanced up to this point. A little bit more on Georgia and a little bit more on the Over.
“Our need will mostly be the Under, but probably Ole Miss, too.”
The total hadn’t moved from 56.5 as of Thursday afternoon. But with the public masses still to come on Saturday, don’t be surprised if that number climbs.
College Football Rocks On FOX
UCLA is money in the bank for bettors this season, going 8-0 SU and ATS so far. That’s got the Bruins at No. 8 in the initial CFP rankings, heading into a noon ET Saturday meeting with Minnesota (5-3 SU/6-2 ATS).
Make no mistake, the Golden Gophers are a threat. Two weeks ago, Minnesota was a 7.5-point home underdog and upset Iowa 13-10. Last week on the road, the Gophers took Indiana to overtime before losing 23-16 as massive 20.5-point underdogs.
Caesars opened UCLA as a 6-point favorite and initially nudged up to -6.5. But the Bruins went to -5.5 on Monday and remained there on Thursday afternoon.
“There’s some sharp action on Minnesota, with how the Gophers have been playing. And overall, it’s been mostly Minnesota action so far,” Feazel said. “But I’d anticipate this being more balanced action heading into kickoff.”
First-year head coach Bob Chesney will aim to keep the Bruins undefeated this week (Getty Images).
On-Campus Sharp Side
College football betting expert Paul Stone nailed Florida-Georgia last week. The Bulldogs were 11.5-point favorites and rolled 27-8.
Stone is keeping it in the SEC for college football Week 10 odds. No. 7 Texas (6-2 SU/3-5 ATS) visits No. 18 Missouri (6-2 SU/4-4 ATS) at noon ET Saturday, in what could serve as a CFP eliminator.
Stone noted that this is only the second true road game of the season for the Longhorns. Missouri is a 2.5-point underdog, but Stone likes Mizzou moneyline +120, eyeing the outright win.
“Texas has been wildly inconsistent and additionally figures to be without a handful of key players due to injury,” Stone said. “I’m looking for Missouri quarterback Austin Simmons to outplay Arch Manning.”
Especially since, as Stone noted, the Longhorns could be quite shorthanded. Running back Hollywood Smothers (shoulder/knee) is out, and wideouts Cam Coleman (shoulder) and Ryan Wingo (quad) are questionable.
“Missouri defeated Florida and Texas A&M by a combined 49 points in its past two home games. I believe the Tigers get it done Saturday against the Longhorns,” Stone said.
Holy War
Saturday’s BYU vs. Utah clash will have a big impact on which of those Big 12 teams gets a CFP boost.
No. 3 Utah is among the best bets on the board this season, at 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS. No. 9 BYU is a money-maker, as well, at 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS, including that aforementioned Week 7 home win vs. Notre Dame.
Caesars opened Utah -6, then made stops at -5.5/-5 while dipping to -4.5 by Wednesday night. And the Utes remained -4.5 on Thursday afternoon. Feazel noted BYU drew sharp action at +6.
“But there’s more action on Utah thus far, on the spread and the moneyline. I’d anticipate that continuing. The Utes have been good to bettors,” Feazel said.
