If you want to find a way to light money on fire with NFL odds, then bet the biggest favorites on the board to cover the spread each week. Or even bet them on the moneyline just to win the game.
Double-digit favorites have lost outright multiple times this season and nearly did again in NFL Week 8 odds.Â
The Bengals barely survived the Titans, saving the day for a Vegas high-roller.
More on that big-bet sweat, an 11-leg NFL parlay that somehow got to the pay window and a lucky 7s wager that wasn’t so lucky, torching nearly $800,000.
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Late Saturday morning, a high-net-worth customer of Station Sports walked into Red Rock Resort in suburban Las Vegas and fashioned this three-leg moneyline parlay:
- Bengals -750 vs. Titans
- Patriots -340 vs. Dolphins
- Rams -295 vs. Chargers
With all three teams solid favorites, the final odds on that ticket didn’t even add up to even money (+100), falling just short of that at -104.Â
And despite the track record of big favorites this season — at least one favorite of 7 or more points has lost every week — the bettor plunked down a whopping $300,000 on the bet.
All three teams actually made it challenging to some degree.Â
New England trailed Miami 13-3 at halftime, then scored the next 21 points while winning 24-19. The Rams were up just 10-9 at halftime but went on to a 24-9 victory.
But Cincinnati was the real heart-stopper.Â
Joe Burrow led the Bengals to a thrilling victory over the Titans in NFL Week 8 (Getty Images).
The Bengals, 13.5-point home favorites, trailed Tennessee 13-0 before the first quarter even ended.
Ultimately, it turned into a back-and-forth battle, with Cincy getting a late touchdown to tie the game at 36 and force overtime. The Bengals then won 43-36 in OT on a Joe Burrow 9-yard touchdown run.
At the expense of the bettor’s blood pressure, the parlay won and profited $289,152.55, for a total payout of $589,152.55.
When it comes to parlay bets, even if you keep the number of legs semi-reasonable — say, four or five legs — your odds of cashing that ticket aren’t great.Â
Eleven legs? Highly improbable.
It’s why this cliché is loaded with truth: Parlays are a bookmaker’s best friend.
So if you’re compelled to bet an 11-leg parlay, keep your bet size and your expectations reasonable. I’d say like $20.
But a Caesars Sports customer said $250. And got there with an 11-leg ticket on Sunday NFL Week 8 odds.
Six legs involved just three games:
- Broncos moneyline -103 and Broncos-Chiefs Over 40.5 points (-115)
- Bengals moneyline -800 and Bengals-Titans Over 46.5 points
- Jaguars moneyline -480 and Jaguars-Colts Over 46.5 points
The other five legs:
- Bills moneyline -173 vs. Ravens
- Rams moneyline -270 vs. Chargers
- Steelers moneyline -190 vs. Browns
- Patriots moneyline -335 vs. Dolphins
- Cardinals +7 (-112) vs. Cowboys
Obviously, the Bengals were a huge sweat there, as were the Broncos, who stopped the Chiefs in the shadow of the goal line to seal a 28-24 victory.
The Cardinals were down 24-10 one minute into the fourth quarter and 27-17 with just 3:54 remaining. Yet Arizona not only covered as a 7-point underdog but stunningly won outright 33-30 in overtime.
Ultimately, all 11 legs got to the finish line and that $250 turned into a healthy $54,000.
Not a bad day’s work.
The largest reported wager of the weekend landed at DraftKings Sportsbook, on Sunday night’s Eagles vs. Commanders game.Â
A customer put an eye-popping $777,777 on Eagles +6, even with Philadelphia wracked by injuries.
Just 11 minutes into the first quarter, the major wager looked brilliant. A Jake Elliott field goal and Saquon Barkley touchdown run gave the Eagles a 10-0 lead.
But Philly didn’t score a point the rest of the game, losing 27-10. So that’s more than three-quarters of a million dollars donated to the house.
If you’re the type of person who likes to bet in-game on seemingly hopeless situations, then Sunday was your kind of day.
The Cardinals were 7.5-point road underdogs vs. the Cowboys. That correlates to the Cards being around +290 on the moneyline to pull off an upset.
But just covering the spread, never mind winning outright, seemed hugely unlikely during the game. As noted above, the Cards were down 14 one minute into the fourth quarter.
With the two-minute warning looming, Arizona trailed 27-17, and Fanatics Sports had the Cardinals a massive +6000 to come back and win.
Arizona then put up a touchdown to pull within 27-24, gave up a Dallas field goal a minute later to trail 30-24, then remarkably tied it at 30 on a Michael Wilson 13-yard TD catch with six seconds left.
Just as remarkably, Chad Ryland missed the extra point, sending the game to overtime. But Ryland redeemed himself with a 42-yard game-winning field goal as the Cards shockingly won 33-30.
If you’d put just 10 bucks on that +6000, then you’d be sitting on $600 today.
Almost similarly, the Broncos trailed the Chiefs 24-13 in the fourth quarter, and a well-endowed Polymarket trader decided to get involved in a big way.
At that point, Denver was given just an 11% chance to win, which correlates to odds of about +800. The customer ponied up $47,105.13 — yes, 13 cents, too.
The Broncos came back to win 28-24, and the trader banked a profit of $385,448.87, for a total payout of $432,554.
It’s not all about making big bets or cashing out huge on a 10-leg parlay. Which, to be clear, is rare.
Sometimes, it’s about putting 10 bucks on a single straight bet, backing a long shot or semi-long shot and getting a solid return on investment.
For example, at DraftKings, Cowboys tight end James Mitchell was a hefty +8000 to score the first touchdown of Sunday’s game vs. the Cardinals. And he did so in the most fortuitous way.
James Mitchell of the Dallas Cowboys scored on a fumble against the Cardinals on Sunday (Getty Images).
On second-and-goal from the 4-yard line, Dallas running back Javonte Williams got to the 1-yard line but fumbled. Mitchell recovered in the end zone for a TD to make it 7-0.
If you’d put $10 on Mitchell, then you would’ve cashed out for $800. If you got frisky and put $100 on that prop, you’d be up $8,000.
In that same game, DraftKings had Cardinals running back Tyler Allgeier +4500 to score two or more TDs. Allgeier broke loose for a 67-yard TD run late in the third quarter, then caught a short TD pass early in the fourth quarter.
A tenner on that player prop would’ve netted $450 profit.
As noted above, the $777,777 Eagles wager was the largest reported wager of the week. But there were several other big-dollar bets, including another one at Station Sports that was an upset victim in college football Week 9 odds.
A Vegas high-roller put $250,000 on Ohio State -5.5 (-130) vs. USC. But the Buckeyes never led Saturday night in a 30-18 loss, lighting that quarter-million on fire in the process.
Other notable bets:
- $220,000 Texas Tech moneyline -180 vs. Arizona (DraftKings). The Red Raiders trailed at multiple junctures, but ultimately won 34-26. So the customer profited $122,222 (total payout $342,222).
- $117,000 Packers -3.5 (-117) vs. Panthers (Caesars). Green Bay won and covered 27-19, and the bettor banked $100,000 profit (total payout $217,000).
- $74,471 Colorado moneyline +100 vs. Kansas State (Caesars). The Buffaloes pulled out a 27-24 overtime victory, and the bettor doubled up, profiting $74,471 (total payout $149,942).
- $59,999.75 Iowa moneyline -134 vs. Wisconsin (Caesars). This was a no-sweat bet, with the Hawkeyes winning 30-0. The bettor netted $44,775.93 (total payout $104,775.68).
Just to remind: These high-rolling customers have the disposable income to not only make big bets but absorb jaw-dropping losses. Keep your expectations in line with your budget. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.