The 2026 championship is Kyle Larson’s to lose. No doubt.
The Hendrick Motorsports team will say all the right things, but they’ve got to feel good about their position for Larson to win his third Cup title. And everyone else needs a Hail Mary for sure.
At more than 70 points back, the six drivers who remain in contention likely need to win at least one of the final two races — if not both of the races — to have a good shot.
Yes, Larson could have trouble. But these contender rankings, with Martinsville this weekend and then the finale at Homestead remaining, are pretty much based on drivers’ chances to sweep the final two races.
Eliminated (Alphabetical Order)
Chris Buescher (RFK Racing No. 17 Ford)
William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet)
Austin Cindric (Team Penske No. 2 Ford)
Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet)
Ty Gibbs (Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54 Toyota)
Carson Hocevar (Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevrolet)
Ryan Preece (RFK Racing No. 60 Ford)
Daniel Suárez (Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevrolet)
Bubba Wallace (23XI Racing No. 23 Toyota)
Contender Rankings
Reddick was involved in the first big one at Talladega and his 37th-place finish was just another day in a roller coaster season. He has just one top 10 in Next Gen races at Martinsville and he was 15th in the spring. He won at Homestead in 2024 and was eighth a year ago.
6.
Briscoe wrecked out in the second big one at Talladega to finish 33rd, and while he’s fourth in the standings, the final two tracks are not good ones for him. Briscoe hasn’t won at either track in the Next Gen era, with a best of fourth at both tracks. He was 14th at Martinsville in the spring and fourth a year ago at Homestead.
5.
Logano ended up on his roof at Talladega, seeing a possible victory turn into a 34th-place finish. He’s all but out of the title hunt. Logano has not won a Next Gen race at Martinsville and Homestead. He was third in the spring at Martinsville and 14th a year ago at Homestead, where he doesn’t have a top five in the Next Gen car.
4.
Blaney said his title chances were on life support with his 38th-place finish at Talladega. But he is a driver who has won his share of elimination-type races. He won the elimination races at Martinsville in 2023 and 2024. He was sixth there in the spring. He has two runner-up finishes in the Next Gen car at Homestead, where he blew an engine in the 2025 race.
3.
Bell placed 35th after a self-induced spin as he was trying to pit early at Talladega. He’ll need a miracle to win the title. Bell has a win in the Next Gen car at both Martinsville and Homestead. He was seventh in the spring at Martinsville and 29th in the 2025 race at Homestead.
2.
Hamlin placed eighth at Talladega to move up to second in points. He can win the next two but would still need Larson to have two very pedestrian days. Hamlin led 292 laps on his way to a second-place finish in the spring at Martinsville, where he has one win in the nine Next Gen races. His Homestead record in Next Gen isn’t good — one top 10 and a fourth a year ago.
1.
Larson is in the driver’s seat when it comes to the title after his victory and 71-point day at Talladega. He has three combined wins in the Next Gen car at Martinsville and Homestead, including the win last year at Homestead. He was ninth in the spring at Martinsville, where he has six top-five finishes in the nine Next Gen races. He can start planning the championship party.
WHAT YOU SHOULD READ NEXT
The Chase looks like it’s Kyle Larson’s to lose, but with two races to go, he’s not getting ahead of himself.
