NASCAR Contender Rankings: Can Kyle Larson Go Back-To-Back?

Only three drivers were able to cut into Denny Hamlin’s margin in a wild race at World Wide Technology Raceway.

The 1.25-mile track — located across the river from St. Louis and commonly referred to by its previous Gateway name — featured a race where nearly all Chase drivers were involved in an incident one time or another.

Here are my Chase contender rankings with eight races left, the next one coming Saturday night in the Bristol Motor Speedway night race.

On The Verge (Alphabetical Order):

Chris Buescher (RFK Racing No. 17 Ford, -111 points behind leader): A brake failure at St. Louis resulted in him losing 23 points to Hamlin. He did win at Bristol in 2022 but hasn’t had a top 10 in his last four starts there.

William Byron (Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet, -114): The good news is Byron, who finished fourth at St. Louis, didn’t lose any points to Hamlin last weekend. The bad news is that he didn’t gain any. He was already 114 points behind and hasn’t had a top five at Bristol since 2022.

Austin Cindric (Team Penske No. 2 Ford, -108): Cindric moved up a couple of spots to 12th in the standings after a 10th-place finish at St. Louis but still didn’t gain on Hamlin. His average finish at Bristol is 22.7.

Carson Hocevar (Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevy, -88): Hocevar was eighth, one spot ahead of Hamlin at St. Louis, but the battles with Brad Keselowski and other drivers could still haunt him. And Bristol is a track where you need friends. He was 10th there in the spring.

Ryan Preece (RFK Racing No. 60 Ford, -111): Preece was 17th at St. Louis, nowhere near good enough to rally. He has never led a lap in Cup at Bristol.

Daniel Suárez (Spire Motorsports No. 7 Chevy, -119): Suárez had a day to forget at St. Louis (in 29th) and his main hope is to just get higher in points. Bristol is one of his worst tracks, a place where he has a 19.7 average finish.

Contender Rankings

With a 14th-place finish, Wallace had a rough race at St. Louis. But there are some of his better tracks coming up in the final eight races of The Chase. Unfortunately, Bristol isn’t one of them. He has just two top 10s in 14 career starts there. He was 11th in the spring.

Logano is seventh in the standings but until this team can show it will have the speed on the 1.5-mile tracks, it’s hard to feel good about them being able to rally. He needed a win at St. Louis, but he did gain 21 points at Hamlin with a third-place finish. He has had two back-to-back top-10 finishes at Bristol after a string of nine finishes outside the top 10 at the track.

Elliott was showing more speed at St. Louis than he typically has. That was until the brake rotor failure ended his day. He has two second-place finishes in the Next Gen era at Bristol but has finished 15th or worse in his last three starts at the track.

Whether Gibbs (18th at St. Louis) can rally is debatable, as it typically would require a driver with more Chase experience to navigate the final two months. Gibbs did win at Bristol in the spring, so it is possible that it could be a springboard.

Reddick’s car seemed like a magnet at times, as he had a couple of incidents where he received damage and wound up 25th. Can he find that magic from the first two months of the season? He’ll need it. Bristol is far from his best track. He had seven consecutive finishes outside the top 10 until he was fourth in the spring.

Briscoe was one of the few drivers whose incident late in the race had nothing to do with anything other than being at the wrong place at the wrong time. If there is a driver and team that can come back from this type of deficit, it’s Briscoe (and maybe Logano). He has two top fives in the Next Gen era at Bristol, including a fifth in the spring.

Blaney’s brake rotor issue came at a track where the Fords had one of their best chances to get a win. He does have three consecutive top fives at Bristol, including a second-place finish in the spring.

Bell (19th at St. Louis) missed a golden opportunity to take the points lead and be in control of The Chase. Those don’t come around too often. Bell, though, is the defending winner of the Bristol night race and has four top-five finishes in the Next Gen era at the track. He was 27th in the spring.

Larson gained 40 points on Hamlin, thanks to his St. Louis victory. If he gets on a roll, he’ll be tough to beat. Larson has two wins and six top-five finishes (including a third in the spring) in the seven Next Gen races at Bristol. It could be a Hamlin-vs.-Larson battle if they can separate themselves next week.

He hasn’t had two great races but has retained the lead. Only three drivers cut their gap to Hamlin in the race at St. Louis. He’s due for some big points’ days, and the tracks coming up are among the best for him. It starts with Bristol, where he has only one finish outside the top 10 in the Next Gen era, including two victories. He was ninth in the spring.

WHAT YOU SHOULD READ NEXT

It’s official. Josh Berry will replace John Hunter Nemechek in 2027.