2026 College Football Playoff Bracket, Dark Horses, National Champion Predictions

The most wonderful time of the year is here: college football season. Where else can you experience the weird traditions, the unhinged fan bases or the irrational optimism that this is the year your team will finally win it all?

In 2026, the College Football Playoff remains a 12-team field – though expansion discussions are ongoing – with a few notable tweaks. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions are all guaranteed spots, as is Notre Dame if it finishes in the top 12. The highest-ranked Group of Six team also earns an automatic berth. Had those rules been in place last year, ACC winners Duke and Notre Dame would have clinched playoff spots, while Miami – which lost to Indiana in the national championship game – would have been left out. 

This year’s national championship game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Monday, Jan. 25. But before we get there, here are FOX Sports’ CFP predictions for this season:

12-Team Prediction

Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Indiana, Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Texas Tech, USC, BYU, Ole Miss, Boise State

Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame are looking to return to the CFP after missing the postseason in 2025.

Entering the 2026 season, it certainly feels like there’s a handful of programs that are all but guaranteed to reach the College Football Playoff barring any kind of catastrophic injury situations and off-field disasters. 

The top seven in this year’s AP Poll, released on Aug. 17, are simply better than everyone else right now thanks to high-level coaching, top-notch player acquisition and a history of shrewd portal evaluations. Those schools are Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana and Miami.

Beneath them are a slew of worthy contenders who, if certain conditions are met, can crash the party. This group includes the oft-discussed second tier of both the Big Ten and SEC, the sport’s preeminent conferences, and a handful of dark horses from the Big 12, ACC and Group of Six. Some of those programs — like Boise State, Texas Tech and Ole Miss — are recent visitors to the promised land who are eager to maintain their upward trajectory. Others, like USC and BYU, are trying to crack the CFP code for the first time. 

Naturally, the trendy surprise pick is USC under the direction of head coach Lincoln Riley, now in his fifth year. The Trojans have upgraded seemingly every facet of the program both on and off the field during Riley’s uneven tenure, and now they’ve injected the nation’s No. 1 high school recruiting class into the mix ahead of the 2026 campaign. Is that enough for USC to finally gain entrance to the CFP? If not, Riley might be the highest-profile name to receive a pink slip once the coaching carousel kicks into gear. It’s now or never for the Trojans. 

Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Indiana, Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Texas Tech, USC, LSU, Ole Miss, North Dakota State

Head coach Tim Polasek is 26-3 in two seasons with the Bison. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

North Dakota State sticks out here, but it shouldn’t surprise you if you read my 138 rankings. NDSU has a clear path to the CFP in Year 1 with a lighter schedule and a program that has grown a habit of winning. I don’t believe it’s difficult to see NDSU running the table as a new member of the Mountain West, given its pedigree and how difficult winning at the Fargodome has become for opposing teams. 

While there’s still Boise State, UNLV and perhaps Navy — yes, Navy — in contention for the only guaranteed spot in the G6, I believe NDSU can do what only James Madison, Tulane, Boise State and Cincinnati have managed: earn their way into the 12-team CFP. 

Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana, Miami, Texas Tech, LSU, Oklahoma, SMU, Boise State

These picks are pretty heavy on established powers who have been to the CFP before. Seven teams from last year’s bracket could legitimately return, in Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Notre Dame, Texas, SMU and Boise State have made the field in the past. LSU hasn’t been to the CFP since winning the title during the 2019 season, but it’s hard to think that if the SEC is getting four teams in, that Lane Kiffin won’t find a way, despite the Tigers’ challenging schedule.

This projected group would include four teams from the SEC, three from the Big Ten, two ACC, one Big 12, plus Notre Dame and the highest-rated Group of Six team, which could very likely be Boise State. There aren’t really any surprises in this particular 12-team field. It’s somewhat chalky in the fact that 11 teams are in the preseason AP top 25 (with Boise State being the outlier). 

That’s what is so difficult about preseason predictions though. These teams are all loaded with a mix of returning veterans and transfer portal stars. There’s plenty of continuity on the rosters and coaching staffs, making it tricky to identify a true Cinderella who could crash the party. But we know that’s likely to happen because what sport could possibly be more dramatic than college football? 

Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Miami, BYU, Notre Dame. Texas Tech, LSU, Navy

Brent Venables and John Mateer look to lead the Sooners back to the CFP this season. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

No surprises at the top here. 

The Big Ten has a pretty clear upper crust in Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. I’d be relatively surprised if any of those three teams missed the CFP — although I am curious how OSU fairs against a brutal schedule compared to last year’s cakewalk.

The top of the SEC have familiarity with the playoff, in Georgia and Texas, but I’m going out on a limb and saying Oklahoma surprises and challenges for the SEC title. I’m a huge believer in quarterback John Mateer and, now that he’s finally healthy, the public can see what few saw during his time at Washington State.

Notre Dame, too, should be one of the best teams in America this year, and missing the playoff would be a genuine shock. Remember, this is the first year of the new CFP deal, meaning that if the Fighting Irish finish inside the top 12, they get an automatic bid — a la a conference champion. I love quarterback CJ Carr and this might be Marcus Freeman’s best team on paper since he’s been in South Bend.

Parsing through the final few slots, I’m not necessarily buying an LSU CFP berth in Year 1 under Lane Kiffin, but I couldn’t find another team I felt better about (Ringing endorsement, I know). There’s an immense amount of talent, but I’m in a bit of “believe it when I see it” mode with the Tigers this fall.

Finally, Navy! The Midshipmen should be uber-efficient on offense with offensive coordinator Drew Cronic back, and I love head coach Brian Newberry’s crew to roll through the American this fall given all the coaching turnover within the conference. 

I also considered Boise State and UNLV for the Group of Six slot.

Playoff Dark Horses

Can Matt Campbell turn things around in his first year leading the Nittany Lions? (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

Despite plenty of changes in Happy Valley following the firing of head coach James Franklin last fall, the Nittany Lions are well-positioned to contend for a spot in the CFP, thanks to a favorable schedule. Penn State avoids Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State and Iowa this fall and won’t face a power-conference opponent in the non-conference portion of its schedule, either. Not a bad way for new head coach Matt Campbell to start his tenure. 

Can Jeff Brohm lead the Cardinals to an ACC championship this season? (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

All the Cardinals have done across three seasons under head coach Jeff Brohm, formerly of Purdue, is win 28 games and secure twice as many victories as defeats in conference play. This season, Louisville returns eight starters on offense from a group that averaged nearly 30 points per game. If Ohio State transfer quarterback Lincoln Kienholz proves himself a reliable starter, then the Cardinals can contend in a thin ACC.

Can Navy continue its dominant run under coach Brian Newberry? (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

This one might be more of a longshot due to the Group of Six possibly receiving just one bid in a 12-team field, but the Midshipmen are a legitimate threat. Navy has won 21 games over the last two years under head coach Brian Newberry — the best two-year run in program history — and returns 11 starters from a team that went 11-2 last season. Keep an eye on the Oct. 31 showdown between Navy and No. 4 Notre Dame. 

Tim Polasek and the Bison enter their first season as an FBS team. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

As I wrote in my 138 ranking, “I ranked North Dakota State just out of my initial top 25, and that piqued the interest of many. It might shock you that I believe the Bison will not only enter FBS immediately and be competitive but the best Group of Six team in the sport.

“This season they’ll have to prove just that, as the rules state only one Group of Six program is guaranteed a spot in the CFP — regardless of whether or not that team won its conference title.

“When the Bison announced their move to FBS earlier this year, I asked Bison coach Tim Polasek a pointed question.”

“Do you think your team is capable of competing for the College Football Playoff?” I asked.

“I think I like our team,” Polasek told me. “We’re going to have some learning and growing to do about our opponents, but I really like our process, the year-round work that we do and how we practice. Those things position us to be very competitive in every game. And if you happen to knock them down one at a time, there’s no reason NDSU can’t be in the conversation for the College Football Playoff.”

A new era is underway in Stillwater as Eric Morris takes over as Oklahoma State’s head coach. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

As I wrote in my 138 ranking, “if you’re looking for a team that could flip its fortunes with one coaching move and a devastating eye for portal talent, then Oklahoma State is your team.

“After a breakthrough year as head coach of North Texas, Eric Morris picked up his 12-win team and moved it to Stillwater. That means Oklahoma State, a 1-11 program in 2025, now possesses a 4,300-yard passer in Drew Mestemaker, a 1,400-yard rusher in Caleb Hawkins and a 1,200-yard receiver in Wyatt Young. But that’s not it. Morris got busy in the portal with the addition of former Tarleton State tailback Tre Page III, who rushed for 839 yards on just 112 carries, as well as former Akron wideout Israel Polk, who caught 33 passes for 525 yards with eight touchdowns last season.

“If the Cowboys manage to pull an early-season upset against Oregon or beat in-state rival Tulsa, you’ll see them skyrocket into everyone’s top-25 rankings — not just mine. Oklahoma State is the most improved team in college football coming out of the offseason. Now, the Pokes have to realize that potential.”

All eyes are on James Franklin in his first season as the Hokies head coach. (Photo by Matt Kelley/Getty Images)

As I wrote in my 138 ranking, “James Franklin might be quoting LL Cool J’s “Mama Said Knock You Out” — “Don’t call it a comeback. I been here for years, I’m rocking peers, putting suckas in fear” — when the 2026 season is done. But for now, he’s trying to turn the Hokies into a team that can rock the ACC with former Penn Stater Ethan Grunkemeyer at quarterback, former Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry at defensive coordinator and picking off 11 former Penn State commits. 

“The schedule is manageable with just one preseason top 25 program (at SMU) to face. It’s there for the Hokies to make us all remember how tough it used to be to go into Blacksburg and come out with a win.”

Kevin Jennings enters his third season as the Mustang’s starting quarterback. (Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

 If the ACC gets two teams into the CFP, I like SMU to be the second behind Miami. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is back for a third year as the starter. Last season, he threw for 3,641 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He already has experience leading his team to the conference championship game and a CFP berth.

Can Trinidad Chambliss lead Ole Miss back to the CFP? (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

Let’s run it back – why not? After going through all the drama of Lane Kiffin’s departure before last year’s CFP, Ole Miss made a resilient run to the semifinal under new head coach Pete Golding. This year, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is back and so is star running back Kewan Lacy. The Rebels’ SEC schedule isn’t for the faint of heart, but perhaps an early win over LSU on Sept. 19 will get everyone in Oxford believing again.

Tony Elliott looks to lead Virginia back to the ACC championship since (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)

Another potential ACC sleeper. The Cavaliers went 11-3 last year. They have stability in head coach Tony Elliott, who is about to embark on his fifth season at UVA; and most of all, the program landed former Penn State and Missouri transfer QB Beau Pribula this offseason. They also don’t have to play Miami, Clemson or Louisville during the regular season, so they could make a run.

Both Rocco Becht and Jamis Patton head to Penn State  (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)

The one Big Ten team I’m way higher on than most is Penn State. James Franklin didn’t leave the cupboard bare in Happy Valley, and Matt Campbell brought essentially the best of Iowa State with him.

The schedule is also incredibly forgiving. Campbell’s crew gets USC and Michigan in back-to-back weeks in October, but they should be favored in almost every other game the rest of the year.

Tosh Lupoi enters his first year as the Golden Bears head coach. (Photo by Matt Kelley/Getty Images)

If I’m going way off the board for a few teams that could come out of nowhere, I’ll take Cal and South Carolina.

Cal has one of the best young quarterbacks in the country in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and head coach Tosh Lupoi has done yeoman’s work in the transfer portal, bringing in talented receivers Ian Strong (Rutgers) and Chase Hendricks (Ohio) to complement his young signal-caller. The Golden Bears’ schedule is also incredibly forgiving as Cal avoids Miami and gets Clemson at home in September. The Oct. 24 game at SMU could determine if the ACC gets a second playoff team into the field. Is a CFP berth in Year 1 of the Lupoi era asking too much? Probably, but that’s why the Golden Bears are a dark horse.

LaNorris Sellers returns to South Carolina after 4-8 campaign last season. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images)

As for South Carolina, I’ve spent the last five-plus years living in Gamecock country, so I’m a little higher on head coach Shane Beamer’s bunch than most. We should see quarterback LaNorris Sellers look more like what we expected last year with offensive coordinator Kendal Briles now running the offense. Throw in a pair of absolute freaky athletes in edge rusher Dylan Stewart and receiver Nyck Harbor and I like the pieces here. 

Beamer enters Year 6 at South Carolina on a hot seat. I’m a little skeptical of how warm it really is, but getting into the CFP mix would certainly help his case.

CFP Champion

Dante Moore returns for his second season as Oregon’s starting quarterback. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Is this the year something finally changes for head coach Dan Lanning on the biggest stage following back-to-back mollywhoppings in the College Football Playoff? Smashed by Ohio State in 2024 and gutted by Indiana in 2025, the Ducks approach this season having brought back 13 starters and accumulating the nation’s No. 3 high school recruiting class. 

There’s a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback in Dante Moore and what should be the most fearsome defensive line in the country with four potential draft picks. The biggest concern is how the Ducks will fare after losing both coordinators to head-coaching positions last winter. 

The Buckeyes look like the most complete team in the sport, and they’ll have a chance to show that on October 17 when they face the Hoosiers in Bloomington. They’ve also demonstrated they can navigate the modern age of the sport and win the national title, having won it just two years ago. They’ve got a quarterback in Julian Sayin, who was a Heisman finalist last year, a wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith, who was a Heisman finalist last year, and a defense that can be as suffocating this year as last year. 

For OSU, the problem to solve should not present itself until the postseason. I believe they’ve learned from last year’s losses to Indiana and Miami and addressed them: Chiefly, the Buckeyes need a run-game. That’s what offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was brought in to make better. If the Buckeyes are formidable in their rushing attack against top 10 opponents, they could become the second program in history to finish their season 16-0.

The Longhorns are entering their sixth year under Steve Sarkisian. And this time, they have all the bells and whistles – a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback in Arch Manning, playmakers around him, and some of the best defensive stars in the country, like Collin Simmons and Rasheem Biles. There’s also a nice mix of continuity and freshness on the coaching staff with the addition of Will Muschamp back as defensive coordinator. 

Texas got off to a rocky start last year before finishing strong with wins over rival Texas A&M and then Michigan in the bowl game. This year, it’s about learning from mistakes, being physical each week through a nine-game SEC schedule, passing an early non-conference test against Ohio State and ultimately, winning the national championship.

Steve Sarkisian is 48-20 in five seasons as the Longhorn’s head coach. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

If not now, when for Texas and Steve Sarkisian?

Sark has the quarterback. He has the elite receiver. He has the defensive pieces. It’s hard not to love what the Longhorns look like on paper and, again, the schedule is at least mildly forgiving as far as SEC slates go.

If Texas beats Ohio State in Week 2, I don’t think it’s crazy to say the Longhorns run the table. Then, of course, comes finishing things off in the postseason, but this team feels ready-made for a deep CFP run.