The back-half of the NFL season has arrived.
Here’s where I’m putting my money ahead of this weekend.
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Undrafted rookie quarterback Joe Fagnano will be making his first career start for the Ravens. Fagnano struggled mightily in relief duty last week, going 10 for 21 with 91 yards and an interception. I expect more of the same on Thursday night.
The Bengals are coming off a game in which they scored 41 points, had 510 yards of offense and averaged an impressive 7.3 yards per play vs. the Titans. The Falcons have been inconsistent on defense, and I think getting stops will be a challenge against the high-powered Bengals.
Hill’s Pick: Bengals Over 27.5
The Jets have gotten accustomed to being near the bottom of the AFC standings, and while they find themselves there once again, they have been competitive in nearly every game. With a 1-5 record in one-score games, the Jets aren’t good, but perhaps a bit underrated. I’ll take them getting 10 here.
Hill’s Pick: Jets +10
The Lions got a big division win last week against the Vikings, but suffered a number of key injuries on defense. The Dolphins have been feisty as an underdog all season. I’ll back them getting seven points here to keep it close.
Hill’s Pick: Dolphins +7
The Giants are threatening to run away and hide in the NFC East, as they take on a beleaguered Eagles team. I’m looking at a rushing prop here, and betting against a beat-up Saquon Barkley, who ran for just 30 yards last week and is clearly nowhere near 100 percent healthy.
Hill’s Pick: Saquon Barkley Under 57.5 rushing yards
There are whispers of a Matthew Stafford shoulder injury, and last week he only threw for 157 yards and was hesitant to throw the ball deep. I’m betting on another quiet day for the reigning MVP.
Hill’s Pick: Matthew Stafford Under 256.5 passing yards
Last week, the Broncos won a game where they trailed by double-digits in the fourth quarter. After a big comeback win against the Chiefs, I think they get tripped up against a Panthers team that is hungry off two straight losses, as well as rested, having not played since last Thursday.
Hill’s Pick: Panthers +7
The Cowboys had one of the more embarrassing losses a team can have last week, blowing a 17-3 home lead to the Cardinals. The Cowboys are favored by 5.5 here, and can’t be trusted to win by that many points against anyone with their lack of defense.
Hill’s Pick: Colts +5.5
It looks like it will be Shedeur Sanders getting the start at quarterback for the Browns on Sunday. The Saints are home and off a bye. I think they have too much offense and will get by what is a limited Browns offense.
Hill’s Pick: Saints -3
The 49ers are off a bye and should be getting healthier going into this game with the Raiders. The Raiders have been dreadful defensively in recent weeks, including last week, when they allowed 33 points and 439 yards to the Jets. I expect the 49ers to light up the scoreboard.
Hill’s Pick: 49ers Over 30.5
The Chargers are winless as the calendar hits November and have yet to cover a point spread this season. I’m sure they’ll cover one at some point, but I’m not backing them until they give me a reason to.
Hill’s Pick: Texans -4.5
The Packers simply cannot run the ball with any effectiveness, but running back Josh Jacobs catching the ball out of the backfield has served as somewhat of a substitute. Jacobs has 11 catches for 68 yards in two games this season since returning from suspension. I like his over 22.5 receiving yards.
Hill’s Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 22.5 receiving yards
“Minshew Magic” helped propel the Cardinals to a comeback win last week in Dallas, but there’s a reason Gardner Minshew has spent much of his career as a backup. I’ll bet on him throwing one to the other team this week, as he draws a tough road matchup against the tenacious Seahawks defense.
Hill’s Pick: Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 interceptions
The Bears look the part of a legitimate Super Bowl contender, but they’re off of a short week and being showered with lots of hype and praise after their Monday night win in Seattle. The Buccaneers have a stout defense and are very good against the run. They are top five defensively in yards per rush and rushing yards allowed per game. I’ll back the road team to keep it close.
Hill’s Pick: Buccaneers +6
The schedule ramps up for the previously undefeated Vikings, as they turn to Carson Wentz at quarterback. It didn’t hit last week, but backing Vikings star kicker Will Reichard to make over 1.5 field goals has been a solid bet all year. I’ll go back to it again this week.
