As most programs quietly head into their holiday break, Connecticut is gearing up for one of its most consequential weeks. The Huskies host two AP Top 25 teams over the next seven days before women’s basketball goes on a five-day hiatus.
The Huskies fell out of the undefeated ranks last week, leaving nine programs without a loss to their name. One is Tennessee, which set the NCAA Division I single-game 3-point record with 30 against NC Central in a 139-59 win on Saturday. No WNBA or NBA game has reached the mark. The 139 points are also a record for the program and the SEC. Four Big Ten teams are also still undefeated.
Assessing a new No. 1 after UConn’s loss
Four teams competed in my mind for the No. 1 ranking after UConn — which held the spot on my ballot since South Carolina’s loss to UCLA — fell to Notre Dame on Thursday in a game that wasn’t closely contested after halftime. The weekly assessment, in my estimation, is more a look at the best team to date this season and not an ordered list of which teams I think will win the national championship.
To see a clear picture of the top teams, here’s a blind look at their results organized by:
NET | NET Strength of Schedule | Quad 1 record | Wins vs AP Top 25 (record vs top 10) | vs Top 100 NET | Her Hoop Stats rating
Team A: 1 | 4 | 4-1 | 4-1 (3-1) | 8-1 | 1
Team B: 4 | 25 | 2-1 | 2-1 (0-1) | 5-1 | 2
Team C: 5 | 152 | 1-0 | 1-0 (1-0) | 3-0 |4
Team D: 6 | 7 | 3-2 | 3-1 (3-0) | 4-2 | 8
The numbers bore out the instinct I held heading into the exercise. Team C wasn’t in contention for No. 1 since its schedule was poor. The program was soundly beating up on teams it should destroy, but it wasn’t testing itself. The offensive and defensive stats were inflated. And it is difficult to assess how the team will fare against the best when it doesn’t play them.
Teams A and D were demanding their own improvement by going head-to-head with teams they could see late in March and even April at the Final Four. That holds more value. We know more about them in reality, not in their potential. And though Team A’s records were slightly better, Team D was undefeated against its most quality opponents and earned a win against Team B this week.
Notre Dame (Team D) surged into No. 1 with its third win over a top-three-ranked team. The two losses at the holiday tournament were awful blunders that look more like anomalies and not trends. It’s going to be difficult for any program to hang with Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles, and as the Fighting Irish pull back to full strength, their forward depth is going to be difficult to counter. Liatu King is the best transfer addition to any program so far.
Team A is South Carolina, which also bounced back strong after its early loss to UCLA. It has wins against NC State, Iowa State, Duke and TCU and will ride out the rest of 2024 with lighter fare in Charleston Southern and Wofford. UConn is Team B and isn’t plummeting in the rankings because the Huskies were without Azzi Fudd against Notre Dame. That doesn’t gloss over their issue of needing more offense beyond Paige Bueckers and Sarah Strong.
And Team C is UCLA. The Bruins are solidly constructed and rightly leaning on center Lauren Betts more in the offense than a year ago (13.6 FGA to 9.9). They’re winning games by an average of 32.5 points (10th) and have wins over Louisville and South Carolina, though the season-opening victory against the Cardinals isn’t looking as good as it once did.
Impact of conference realignment shows early
The margin for mistakes within the Big Ten and ACC conference schedules is more narrow given the offseason realignment. Georgia Tech’s win over North Carolina in a ranked matchup is a pristine example of that impact.
The Yellowjackets played one of their best offensive games of the year, shooting 51.7% and assisting on 21 of 30 baskets (70% assist rate) with a 1.24 assist-to-turnover ratio while neutralizing All-ACC fifth-year graduate wing Alyssa Ustby. The Tar Heels’ leading scorer attempted near a season-low in field goal attempts (six) and scored just two points off free throws.
North Carolina gave up a season-high 50 points in the first half and trailed in the second by 23, its largest deficit of the season. The Tar Heels won’t have a chance to adjust their game plan and even the season series. This was their only game against Georgia Tech, just as it will be their only game against nearly everyone in the ACC.
Because of teams added in realignment, the ACC and Big Ten moved to a schedule in which teams play every other team in their conference once, with the exception of two games against their traveling partner. The home and away matchups flip annually. In Georgia Tech’s case, it’s Clemson; North Carolina faces Duke twice.
That slight change could have an outsized impact on NET rankings, AP poll decisions and ultimately, the committee’s seed lines. There will have to be an elevated sense of urgency for each game, because there isn’t going to be redemption unless the stars align in the conference tournaments.
Richmond still teetering on top-25 status
As an AP voter, the most difficult rankings are not the quintuplet of teams at the top, but rather the ones at the bottom. There is a significantly large group of programs that could be ranked, an honor that draws more national attention and prestige. And parsing out the mid-majors is a tricky task because of the level of competition both in and out of conference.
Richmond (9-2) falls into that category. Heading into Week 7, the Spiders received votes in the last four polls. They have a NET 30 ranking through Sunday’s games (down from 26) with a 1-1 record against Quad 1 teams and two wins against Quad 2. Her Hoop Stats has them rated 31st after peaking at No. 16 in late November. They have wins against Oklahoma State (9-1), which is otherwise undefeated, and Columbia (7-4), but didn’t have enough against Madison Booker and then-No. 6 Texas (10-1) on Sunday. Richmond was within 10 with six minutes remaining.
The Spiders are the reigning Atlantic-10 regular season and tournament champions. Rachel Ullstrom is averaging 16.5 points while shooting 56.5% and 44.6% from 3 to lead the offense, followed closely by Maggie Doogan (14.5 ppg, 53.8%). Anna Camden, a 2023 transfer from Penn State, is also available after an offseason ACL injury kept her out last season.
They’re one of Division I’s best shooting teams, ranking second in effective field goal percentage (58.1) and second in points per scoring attempt (1.21). The defense is also top 25 and they’re elite at not fouling. But all those statistical rankings can be misleading given their competition, and the A-10 schedule won’t help them look better.
The Spiders’ last major attention-grabbing games are this weekend at the West Palm Beach Classic against Tennessee (8-0) and Alabama (10-1). A win in either could put them on more ballots. They’ll have to limit their turnovers (13th percentile) against a Tennessee pressure defense that thrives off them.
Game(s) of the Week
It’s a major March-defining week in Connecticut. The Huskies (9-1) play Iowa State on Tuesday (8:30 p.m. ET, FS1) in the Hall of Fame Women’s Showcase at Mohegan Sun Arena, arguably a third home arena for them. The highlight comes later in the week.
USC at UConn, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX): Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins, each No. 1 recruits dubbed generational talents, face each other for the second time in a calendar year after UConn won in the NCAA tournament regional final. Bueckers led UConn with 28 points (47.8 FG%, 50 3FG%), 10 rebounds, six assists, three steals, two blocks and two turnovers. Watkins paced USC with a less efficient 29 points (36 FG%, 33.3 3FG%), 10 rebounds, two assists, one steal, two blocks and four turnovers.
Official AP rankings
1. UCLA
2. South Carolina
3. Notre Dame
4. UConn
5. LSU
6. Texas
7. USC
8. Maryland
9. Duke
10. Oklahoma
11. Ohio State
12. TCU
13. Kansas State
14. West Virginia
15. Michigan State
16. Kentucky
17. Georgia Tech
18. Tennessee
19. North Carolina
20. Michigan
21. NC State
22. Iowa
23. Nebraska
24. California
25. Ole Miss
Yahoo Sports AP ballot
1. Notre Dame
2. UCLA
3. South Carolina
4. UConn
5. Texas
6. Maryland
7. Duke
8. USC
9. Oklahoma
10. LSU
11. Kansas State
12. West Virginia
13. Ohio State
14. Georgia Tech
15. TCU
16. Tennessee
17. North Carolina
18. Kentucky
19. Michigan
20. Michigan State
21. Ole Miss
22. Iowa State
23. Iowa
24. Illinois
25. NC State
