Michigan State basketball is projected to make the tournament, but it’s far from a lock, one day away from Selection Sunday.
The latest bracketology projections have MSU (19-14) on the right side of the bubble in the tournament field, but the Spartans are projected to be one of the very last at-large teams to secure a bid. The Spartans came up short of securing their spot with a win over Purdue, a projected 1-seed, in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. MSU played Purdue tough in the 67-62 loss, but struggled to contain Zach Edey and hit shots on the offensive end.
MSU went 1-1 in the tournament with a second-round win over Minnesota, 77-67, on Thursday.
Now, Michigan State must wait for the rest of the conference tournament games to play out before finding out their tournament fate on Sunday evening. Based on the NCAA’s metrics, the NET rankings, MSU has a tournament resume, ranked No. 25, based on a strong net rating despite the lack of volume in the marquee win department (3-9 against Quad 1 opponents).
Plenty of teams are still alive in conference tournaments that are not projected as locks for the tournament field but could steal a bid as an automatic qualifier with an unexpected conference tournament win. The best-case scenario for Michigan State would be favorites winning over other teams on the bubble or projected to miss the tournament.
Here are national bracketologists’ latest tournament projections as of Friday and Saturday.
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ESPN: MSU in last four byes
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has MSU as one of the last eight teams to make the tournament field in his ‘last four byes’ group, just missing the first-round play-in games in Dayton. MSU is projected as a 10-seed in the Midwest region against 7-seed Gonzaga. The projected 2-seed is Tennessee, with the games located in Charlotte, North Carolina. If MSU made a Sweet 16 run, they’d be playing in Detroit. Other top Midwest seeds that could be playing at Little Caesars Arena are Purdue (1), Creighton (3), Kansas (4) and South Carolina (5).
Oakland, who locked up an automatic bid last weekend by winning the Horizon League, is projected as a 14-seed in the East region facing 3-seed Kentucky.
CBS Sports: MSU a 10-seed
CBS’ Jerry Palm has MSU in the same matchup as a projected 10-seed in the East region playing 7-seed Gonzaga. 2-seed Iowa State would face 15-seed South Dakota State, and the second-weekend games are in Boston. Oakland is a projected 14-seed facing 3-seed Creighton in the South region, with Washington State as the projected 7-seed and a First Four winner in the second round. The projected top Midwest seeds that could play in Detroit are Purdue, Marquette, Baylor, Auburn and Utah State.
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Fox Sports: MSU a 10-seed
Shortly after MSU’s loss, Fox’s Mike DeCourcy updated his tournament projection and has MSU as a 10-seed in the South region facing off against 7-seed Clemson. On the other side of the first weekend matchups is 15-seed Oakland, facing off against 2-seed Marquette. A potential MSU-Oakland rematch in the first two rounds would be fun, but unlikely to unfold in the real bracket.
The projected top Midwest seeds are Purdue, Iowa State, Creighton, Auburn and Saint Mary’s.
Bleacher Report: MSU third-to-last team in
Bleacher Report has MSU as the third-to-last team in the tournament field, describing their resume as “probably good enough” to make the field. In this projected bracket, MSU is playing in the First Four games in Dayton mid-week as an 11-seed against Oklahoma, for a chance to make the 64-team bracket to play 6-seed Saint Mary’s in the Midwest region. Oakland is a projected 14-seed in the West region facing off against 3-seed Baylor. The projected top Midwest seeds are Purdue, Iowa State, Creighton, Alabama and San Diego State.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: MSU’s March Madness bracketology predictions for 2024 NCAA tournament
