Where do Xavier Musketeers stand in latest NCAA Tournament bracketology?

NEW YORK CITY − A season littered with “what-if?” moments continued for Xavier in Manhattan Wednesday night.

The Musketeers let a 16-point second-half lead slip away against No. 20 St. John’s at Madison Square Garden before eventually falling 79-71 in overtime.

It was a loss that followed a similar script. Xavier has proven it can go toe-to-toe with some of the best teams in the nation. Sealing the deal in crunch time is a different story.

“They (Xavier) were the better team,” St. John’s head coach Rick Pitino said postgame.

As Xavier knows best, sometimes the better team doesn’t win. For Xavier, it was another gut-wrenching defeat while at the doorstep of a signature win.

“By the way, against Marquette, that we just won, we did the same thing. We just hung on,” Xavier head coach Sean Miller said of his team’s previous upset of the Golden Eagles. “For whatever reason, we can’t get better in that area.”

A victory over St. John’s would’ve had Xavier walking hand-in-hand with the NCAA Tournament bubble. Instead, there’s ground to make up.

It’s the nature of the business. With 52 days until Selection Sunday, the March Madness conversations are starting to heat up. Where does Xavier stand at 12-8 overall (4-5 Big East)?

What are Xavier’s chances of making NCAA Tournament?

Xavier ranks No. 53 in the NCAA NET Rankings, which is one of the key resources the NCAA Tournament selection committee uses to determine which teams make the dance.

Of course, the 68 best teams in the NET don’t make up the NCAA Tournament bracket. Xavier is now 1-6 in the all-important Quadrant 1 category and 4-2 in Quadrant 2 contests.

According to TeamRankings.com, Xavier has a 31.2% chance of making the NCAA Tournament.

Xavier could receive an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament by winning the Big East Tournament at Madison Square Garden. That’s a pretty big stretch to say Xavier could run the table, though, with the Musketeers sitting in seventh place in the Big East.

The most likely avenue for getting the Musketeers to March Madness is through an at-large bid (25.2% chance).

What do bracketologists say?

Prior to Wednesday’s overtime loss, Xavier was listed in the “Next Four Out” by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Of note, the UC Bearcats were part of the “First Four Out.”

Fox Sports’ Mike DeCourcy had a better outlook in his Wednesday afternoon update, listing Xavier as one of the last four teams to make the tournament. DeCourcy had Xavier as a No. 11 seed playing SMU in the First Four.

DRatings.com, a sports ratings, prediction and analysis website, listed Xavier as one of its “Next Four Out” in a Tuesday update and projects the Musketeers as a No. 2 seed in the National Invitational Tournament (NIT). Xavier lost in the first round of the NIT last season and won the tournament in 2022.

Is Xavier running out of chances to make up ground in NCAA Tournament chase?

There are no off nights in the Big East, but some wins ultimately carry more weight than others.

Xavier’s in the midst of one of its toughest stretches of the season. Up next is No. 19 UConn at Cintas Center Saturday, followed by a road matchup against Creighton. UConn is currently No. 34 in the NCAA NET Rankings, which makes Saturday’s game fall in the Quadrant 2 category. Of course, if UConn improves to end the year, it could move to a Quadrant 1. Xavier’s trip to Omaha to face Creighton Jan. 29 is a Quadrant 1.

After that, Xavier will have just one more game (March 1 vs. Creighton) against the top four teams in the Big East.

Xavier’s NCAA Tournament chances could hinge on its final two January matchups. The schedule softens up in February and Xavier has fewer opportunities to gain ground.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Where does Xavier stand in latest NCAA Tournament bracketology?