The USC Trojans’ Pac-12 women’s basketball championship hopes lasted about 42 hours. From the end of the Colorado game late Friday night to the end of Sunday afternoon’s loss to Utah, USC harbored realistic aspirations of being able to win a share of the last Pac-12 regular season title in women’s hoops. That dream died with the 74-68 defeat dealt by the Utes in a hard-fought game in the Galen Center.
Is the immediate result disappointing? No question. Yet, the larger picture is that USC made a great run at a conference championship which seemed out of the question for a good portion of the season. Let’s gain some perspective on the current balance of power in the Pac-12, but also on the journey USC took to get to this point:
STANFORD JUST HAS TO WIN A LAYUP GAME
The Stanford Cardinal clinched a share of the Pac-12 title on Sunday by beating Arizona State. They will go to Corvallis for a very tough game at Oregon State on Thursday. However, they can lose that game and still win the outright Pac-12 title by beating last-place Oregon on Saturday in Eugene. Stanford will probably be close to a 20-point favorite in that game. The Cardinal are 99-percent likely to win the Pac-12 outright. For all intents and purposes, USC’s title chase ended with the loss to Utah.
USC’S PATH CLOSES
USC has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Stanford due to a win over the Cardinal. Had the teams tied in the standings, USC was in position to get the No. 1 seed at the Pac-12 Tournament. However, USC’s loss puts the Trojans two games behind Stanford. The Cardinal just need to win one of two this week in Oregon to finish ahead of USC. It’s an opportunity missed for the Trojans.
2 SEED STILL RIGHT THERE
Oregon State lost to Washington on Sunday. This keeps USC in second place. USC has the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Beavers. If the two of them tie, USC gets the higher seed.
COLORADO-UCLA ON MONDAY
Colorado visits Pauley Pavilion on Monday to play UCLA. The winner ties USC and OSU at 11-5 in the Pac-12, two games behind Stanford. The loser falls to fifth place and would not be in position to get a first-round bye at the Pac-12 Tournament. That’s a huge incentive for the Buffs and Bruins.
USC ARIZONA TRIP
USC visits Tucson on Thursday to face Arizona. Then the Trojans go to Tempe to play Arizona State on Saturday. If the Trojans win both games, they will get a first-round bye at the Pac-12 Tournament, no matter what. A split could complicate matters. Two losses would almost certainly mean a first-round game and a loss of NCAA Tournament seeding position. There is plenty to play for. This team does not need an extra game in Vegas in two weeks.
THE JOURNEY
Remember that USC lost its Pac-12 opener at UCLA, and then lost both games on the Mountain road trip in mid-January at Utah and Colorado. One week after the Mountain trip, USC lost at home to Washington. USC was 4-4 in the Pac-12. The conference title was nowhere in sight. It was not taken seriously as a real possibility for this team.
7-GAME WINNING STREAK
USC won at home against the Arizona schools and Colorado. It swept road trips to the San Francisco Bay Area and the state of Oregon. USC took down Stanford, a likely No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and Oregon State, a possible No. 2 seed, on the road. Suddenly, USC — 4-4 in the Pac-12 through eight games — had improved to 11-4, one game behind 12-3 Stanford entering Sunday. USC won’t catch the Cardinal, but it’s amazing that they came as close as they did.
LOADED LEAGUE
USC came very close to winning a conference which has five teams projected to be top-four seeds in the NCAA Tournament, and six teams with top-six projected seeds. Stanford, Oregon State, USC, Colorado, UCLA, and Utah are as good a six-team group as any conference in the country. Realistically, it’s the best six-team group in the United States, and no other conference comes especially close. The Pac-12 could easily put six teams in the Sweet 16, and the odds are good that the league will put at least four teams in the second weekend of the Big Dance.
USC almost won a league this stacked and this loaded. It’s quite impressive what the Trojans have done, even with the loss to Utah on Sunday.
