It has been an up and down year for the UConn men’s basketball team in its quest for a third-straight NCAA title under Dan Hurley.
After a difficult start to the season, the Huskies currently sit at 19th in the latest AP Top 25 poll released on Monday, with an overall record of 14-5 (6-2 in Big East play).
A November skid saw UConn go 0-3 at the Maui Invitational, with losses to Memphis, Colorado and Dayton. After leaving Hawaii, the Huskies got back on track, winning nine in a row. In the month of January, they are 4-2 in Big East play.
So, with the rollercoaster start to the season, where do the Huskies stand in the NCAA tournament conversation?
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UConn men’s basketball bracketology analysis
UConn is still projected to safely make the big dance less than two months out, but its seed line could drastically change depending on how it’s remaining schedule plays out.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi currently has UConn making the tournament as a No. 6 seed in the latest Bracketology projections, dropping from the 5 line in last week’s projection. But don’t fret Husky fans, this is a familiar spot for the team, winning at multiple seeding positions.
In 2014, Connecticut won the National Championship as a 7 seed over No. 8 Kentucky. In Hurley’s first championship run with the program two years ago, the Huskies were a 4 seed before repeating against Purdue as a 1 seed.
According to the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), a system in use since the 2018-19 season that is used to rank programs and assist in selecting teams for the NCAA tournament, UConn ranks at 34th in the country, down two spots from it’s previous ranking.
UConn men’s basketball past schedule analysis
The Huskies already have a strong number of quality wins under their belt this season. According to the quadrant system in the NET, which organizes the quality of wins and losses into four quadrants (1 being the best, and four being the worst) UConn has a 3-2 record in Quad 1, and a record of 7-5 in the first two quadrants (4-3 in Quad 2).
UConn has Quad 1 wins over then 8th-ranked Gonzaga and No. 15 Baylor, and Texas, with losses to Memphis and Villanova. Both Gonzaga and Baylor have dropped out of the AP Top 25 since, leaving UConn with no wins over currently ranked opponents, and only one win over a current top 20 team in NET rankings (No. 19 Gonzaga).
In Quad 2, Connecticut has beaten Xavier, DePaul, Georgetown and Butler. The Huskies also have losses against Dayton and, most recently, Creighton at home on Saturday.
Connecticut had no additional losses outside of the first two quadrants until the neutral court loss to Colorado dropped to a Quad 3 loss. UConn is now 7-1 in Quads 3 and 4, but any additional losses in one of those quadrants could be a blow to the Huskies’ seed line.
UConn men’s basketball upcoming schedule analysis
Though Connecticut doesn’t currently have the resume that its last two championship teams had, there is an opportunity to significantly bolster its quality wins over the coming weeks.
Connecticut still has two games each remaining against No. 10 Marquette and No. 20 St. John’s, both of which are ahead of UConn in Big East standings by a game. All four of those games will be Quad 1 opportunities. One win against each team could be enough to give Connecticut some viable credit heading into March, and a sweep of one or both teams would be a much-welcomed bonus.
The Huskies other remaining games in Big East play are at home against DePaul, Seton Hall, Villanova, and Georgetown, and away against Xavier, Creighton, Providence and at Seton Hall.
Each of those games listed above project to be Quad 2 and 3 opportunities, with the one exception being a home game against Seton Hall (Quad 4).
If Connecticut goes 1-1 or better against Marquette and St. John’s, and handles its business against their remaining opponents, the Huskies should easily receive a seed line of 7 or higher. If they drop one or more Quad 2, 3, or 4 opportunities, that seed line could drop.
Additionally, Connecticut will have additional opportunities if it advances in the Big East tournament. A share of the Big East regular season title and/or a run to the championship game in the conference tournament could also bump its seed line.
UConn men’s basketball team breakdown
The reigning champion Huskies lost four of their five starters to the NBA in the offseason: Stephon Castle (San Antonio Spurs), Donovan Clingan (Portland Trail Blazers), Tristen Newton (Indiana Pacers) and Cam Spencer (Memphis Grizzlies). Junior Alex Karaban was the lone mainstay, and the forward is averaging career-highs of 15.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3 assists per game this season.
Aside from Karaban, sophomore guard Solo Ball, senior center Samson Johnson and fifth-year guard Hassan Diarra have been constants in Hurley’s starting five through the first half of the season.
Five-star freshman wing Liam McNeeley was the other constant, until he suffered a high ankle sprain in the second half of an 81-68 road win over DePaul on New Year’s Day. Hurley said earlier this month that the freshman would be out “weeks, not days.” There is no official timetable for his return.
McNeeley started his career averaging 13 points and 6 rebounds through Connecticut’s first 11 games. He was the No. 10 recruit in the country, according to 247sports.com.
This article originally appeared on The Bulletin: Where does UConn land in the latest NCAA tournament projections?
