Each year of Dennis Gates’ tenure, the Braggin’ Rights matchup in St. Louis has proved something about that year’s version of the Missouri Tigers.
In 2022, it proved that people’s belief in the turnaround of Gates’ first season was real.
The team could force turnovers and hit 3s with the best in the country and it was ready to compete with Kobe Brown and D’Moi Hodge leading the way.
Last year, the matchup proved the Tigers weren’t set to repeat their NCAA Tournament appearance as they were out-run, out-shot and out-classed by an Illinois team that would go to the Elite 8.
The parts of the Tigers that have been either exalted or worried about early in the season in the first two years of Gates’ time in Columbia came out in major ways in those matchups.
The same was true Sunday at Enterprise Center. And I think Illinois coach Brad Underwood said it best a couple of times.
“That’s a really good Missouri team that will be participating in March,” Underwood said.
But the route they might take there has continued to become more and more clear each game and I think the Braggin’ Rights performance has solidified them.
The Tigers are going to get out-rebounded again this year, probably every game from here on out except against Alabama State – and maybe even against Alabama State.
Missouri as a team doesn’t set up to be strong rebounders most of the game. But the Tigers force enough turnovers to usually make up the difference, like they did Sunday.
“I call it, ‘Choas.’ Nobody does that better than Missouri,” Underwood said.
The Tigers got out-rebounded 42-30 in the end, slightly improving on an even bigger halftime deficit by winning the battle for the boards 21-19 after halftime.
And the Tigers forced 17 turnovers while committing nine.
Gates’ analytic philosophy says offensive rebounds plus turnovers forced equals extra possessions, and the more extra possessions the better.
Illinois had 12 offensive rebounds and Mizzou committed nine turnovers, that’s 21 extra possessions. The Tigers had nine offensive rebounds and forced 17 turnovers for 26 extra possessions.
So the Tigers won the analytic battle for possessions, they have the ability to win that combined battle against good teams. They proved that in the Border War and they proved it again Sunday.
Mizzou will get out-rebounded game after game this year, and the Tigers will still come out with extra possessions because they force turnovers, while taking care of the ball themselves. Though I’m sure scrolling through Mizzou Twitter will continue to be complaints about the rebounding. That’s fair, it’s ugly and a little demoralizing to watch your team get crushed on the boards.
But overall, being able to win that battle against the best teams is very positive.
The Tigers also proved their desire to attack the basket will continue and they will do it well.
“We did a good job of forcing them to see bodies in the paint,” Underwood said. “They didn’t pass it out, you know, we had a pretty good idea that they weren’t going to pass, so once they got it in there, they were shooting it over whoever.”
That desire led to 37 free-throw attempts and 28 makes. They missed in some key situations with both Mark Mitchell and Trent Pierce coming away with empty trips to the line late in the game, but 75 percent as a team will be enough most games if they continue going to the line 35 or more times.
One of the biggest issues with Gates’ teams the past two years was they never got to the free-throw line. That’s certainly not the case this year.
But one of the strengths both years was the 3-point shooting, and without Caleb Grill, that’s just not the case this year.
With only three makes from deep Sunday, the Tigers have 10 combined 3s in the three games against power-conference opponents they have played without Grill.
But he did warm up before Sunday’s game, so it seems more and more likely that he’ll be back for conference play.
If you add in competent 3-point shooting, the Tigers win; if they don’t shoot 8-of-20 on layups, the Tigers win; if they only miss five free throws, the Tigers win.
The Tigers proved Sunday that unlike last year, they’re a real contender heading into conference play. A team that will beat you at the free throw line and by getting steals and playing in transition.
And they proved that games this year are going to be exciting again.
“I think we gave them a pretty good show today,” Underwood said. “Those were two really good basketball teams.”
