No Steph Curry. No LeBron James. No Jayson Tatum or Giannis Antetokounmpo. No throwback Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics matchup.
Also, no problem, at least from one sportsbook’s perspective on NBA Finals odds. After all, there’s still two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokić and his red-hot Denver Nuggets and the continuing Cinderella story of Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat.
Kevin Lawler, head of trading for PointsBet USA, and savvy NBA bettor Rick Camp help us dive into NBA Finals odds markets ahead of Thursday night’s Game 1 in the Mile High City.
Let’s break down what should be an eventful NBA Finals.
Simply the Best
Some oddsmakers are rightly noting that a Heat-Nuggets championship series isn’t going to generate nearly as much action as a Lakers-Celtics series. But with the massive expansion of legal sports betting over the past five years, PointsBet has found that to be less of a concern.
In fact, the company’s U.S. base is in Denver, and sports betting is legal and thriving in Colorado. So there’s been no shortage of interest in the Nuggets. And Miami running all the way to the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed also provides a compelling storyline.
“Nikola Jokić and Jimmy Butler, to a lesser extent, have shone brighter than any [other big] names in this postseason, so we don’t see any dampener at all,” Lawler said. “Both these teams are popular, and the Nuggets particularly so in our home state. Ideally and selfishly, we’d probably prefer something like Nuggets-Sixers or Nuggets-Knicks, where we have two teams facing off from states in which we operate.
“But overall, we’re not expecting any drop in handle or business. Giannis has been gone since Round 1, and trading metrics have been great so far. Miami and Denver have been the best teams in the postseason. It’s as simple as that — the two best teams have made it through to the showpiece.”
Nikola Jokić outpaces Jimmy Butler as favorite to win NBA Finals MVP
Nick Wright, Chris Broussard and Kevin Wildes preview Game 1 of the NBA Finals featuring the Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets.
The Long Journey
After Miami eliminated Boston in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals, PointsBet opened NBA Finals series odds at Nuggets -400/Heat +300. There’s been little movement since then, with Denver -400 and Miami +310 as of Wednesday afternoon.
But both teams have come a long way from where they started. Before the 2022-23 season began, the Heat were +1600 and the Nuggets +2000 in odds to win the NBA Finals. Denver was pretty solid all season en route to the West’s No. 1 seed and was +800 entering the playoffs.
Miami, however, traveled a tougher road. The Heat finished eighth in the East and had to go through two play-in games — a loss to Atlanta and a win over Chicago — just to get into the playoffs. Bettors could’ve gotten Miami +5000 at PointsBet in January and +4000 at the start of the postseason.
Despite different paths and levels of success, both teams have seen plenty of attention at PointsBet.
“The Nuggets have been popular from the get-go,” Lawler said. “Clients were backing them from the start of the season, all the way through the Christmas period when they were atop the West, and into the playoffs as the 1-seed. Particularly in Colorado, clients have wanted to bet on their home team.
“Similarly, clients have believed in the Heat all the way through. They were one game from the Finals last year, and despite finishing in the play-ins with a mediocre regular-season record [44-38], they’ve been backed consistently all year.”
Miami shocked No. 1 seed Milwaukee in the first round, winning the series 4-1. The Heat then beat the Knicks in six games and the Celtics in seven to reach the Finals. Denver took out Minnesota in five games, Phoenix in six, then pinned a 4-0 sweep on LeBron and the Lakers.
Both teams are actually better for PointsBet customers than the book in the NBA Finals. Miami is a smaller loser than Denver for the book.
“Interestingly, Boston was the best outright result for PointsBet. But Miami thwarted that in Game 7,” Lawler said. “Miami is a small loser, with a couple of tickets in the +4000 range back at the start of the playoffs.”
[RELATED: NBA Finals prediction, picks, series odds]
The Sharp Side
Camp has a cornucopia of thoughts on NBA Finals betting, from series winner to alternate series markets to player props and, of course, who emerges as NBA Finals MVP.
Regarding who claims the title:
“After winning three straight in the fashion the Heat have, every analyst is making sure to give Miami credit before picking Denver to win the title. That should be a sign because the Heat winning the championship would be a great narrative, but the Nuggets have been beyond impressive in the playoffs.
“When looking at the matchup, the room for error is just so much larger for the Nuggets. No matter the lineup or rotation adjustments Erik Spoelstra makes, Denver has an answer for it, and it is a matter of picking your poison.”
On series/alternate series odds:
“The market is strong on the Nuggets as the rightful favorites, and there is no value on Denver -1.5 games. If someone is desperate to play the Denver side, an exact outcome of 4-1, with Denver closing it out at home, makes sense. But it’s not something I will personally be playing.”
And on the MVP chase:
“As for Finals MVP, this is the best player on the winning team a vast majority of the time. I do not believe there is value in Jokić or Butler right now. If I was forced to take a long shot, it would be Aaron Gordon at +31000 (310/1) at FanDuel because Gordon provides what Jokić cannot: great defense on Jimmy Butler. If he does a fantastic job shutting down Butler, scores near 20 per game, and the Denver offensive numbers are not great to where Jokić would have insane stats, there could be a slight chance Gordon gets there.”
Camp said it’s not so much a belief that Gordon can win MVP — again, he recognizes it’s a major long shot — but a play against what he sees as odds that are too long.
All the above duly noted, how does Camp see the NBA Finals playing out?
“I think the Nuggets win the series in five or six games, but a sweep would be more likely than this getting to Game 7,” Camp said while realizing Miami has proven that the NBA playoffs are anything but predictable. “Could the Heat win Game 1 and make me — yet another person — look like a fool? Absolutely.”
Florida Parlay
Not to be overshadowed, the Stanley Cup Final is also set, running fairly concurrent with the NBA Finals. The Florida Panthers face the Vegas Golden Knights for the right to lift Lord Stanley’s chalice.
There are striking similarities between the Panthers and their NBA neighbor Miami Heat. Obviously, both teams are based in South Florida. Both got into their respective postseasons as the eighth and final seed in the Eastern Conference.
Both then beat their respective league’s best regular-season team in the first round. The Panthers rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to stun the record-setting Boston Bruins 4-3. The Heat rolled to a 4-1 series win over the Milwaukee Bucks.
And now, both are in the championship series. So why not fire on a two-team championship parlay of Heat-Panthers?
If you do so at PointsBet USA — parlaying the Heat to win it all with the Panthers to win it all — then the odds are +740. So if you bet $100, the potential profit is $740.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Along with those aforementioned couple of tickets at +4000 on the Heat to win the NBA Finals, Lawler noted that PointsBet USA took a $4,000 bet on the Nuggets +2000 at the beginning of the season. Should Denver finish the job, that customer would land an $80,000 profit.
Lawler also said the Nuggets drew plenty of tickets at +800 before the playoffs began. And again, the Nuggets are now -400 to win the NBA Finals.
Of course, not many bettors want to lay -400, meaning it takes a $400 bet to net a $100 profit. So if they like the Nuggets, then they’re looking to other markets. Caesars Sports noted one customer piling up on Denver making this a quick series:
– $20,000 on Nuggets sweep +600
– $10,000 on Nuggets sweep +550
– $40,000 on Nuggets sweep +525
If Denver sweeps Miami 4-0, that bettor’s $70,000 in wagers will yield a hefty $385,000 in profit.
A DraftKings Sportsbook customer also put $100,000 on the Nuggets +900 to win the Finals for a potential profit of $900,000.
Obviously, for these types of bettors, this is Monopoly money. So as always, while enjoying the NBA Finals, never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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