Six Nations 2024: Stakes are higher for Scotland in Calcutta Cup – Johnnie Beattie

As former Scotland head coach Scott Johnson used to say: “Boys, this week it’s either rocks or diamonds.” I may be leaving out an expletive or two, but the point stands. Which is it for Scotland against England at Murrafield – rocks or diamonds?

Scotland have won the past three Calcutta Cups and four of the past six. England are one from six. The Scots are at home. The English are in transition. Gregor Townsend is a human form of kryptonite to the visitors. Scotland are favourites. Surely nobody can deny that.

I’d also say the stakes are higher for Scotland. Having lost that hugely controversial game against France, they can’t afford to lose again. Another defeat and it’s the end of their hopes of getting to Dublin on the last weekend with something tangible to play for. This is must-win. There’s no hiding from that.

We all know good Scotland can be – England certainly know – but the years are running out for some guys in the team. They need to win this Test match not just to keep their hopes alive this season but to prove to themselves they’ve stepped up and are now contenders. The loss to France was a big blow. They cannot suffer another one.

So it’s hit or bust for Scotland. If they win then they kick on to Rome with confidence. If they lose then I don’t know what kind of damage will be done to their belief. There will be a bitter taste.

I’ve said repeatedly this is the best collection of Scottish players I’ve seen. They’ve done things the team I played on never did. They’ve won in places we couldn’t. They have played a brand of rugby that is, at its best, mesmerising.

Think back to the Calcutta Cup last year, not only to Duhan van der Merwe’s unbelievable solo run, but to the team try that won the match at the end. It was a score of breathtaking quality. That’s the kind of Scotland we need to see at Murrayfield. Fearless, creative, powerful, accurate.

England are building a new team and a new identity. Judging by their first two games, they have a way to go yet. They almost got to a World Cup final by playing – let’s be honest here – dismal rugby.

They have a new blitz defence under Felix Jones, the Irishman who was on the coaching ticket when South Africa won the World Cup last year. They’re trying to introduce it but the players are not yet used to it. Defensively, they’re not settled.

They got themselves in trouble against Italy in round one and only scraped past them, then just about came out the right side of a turgid affair against Wales. Two from two, yes. Theoretically, a Grand Slam is still open to them, but I’m not sure they know yet how they want to play in attack.

They don’t look comfortable with the ball and appear happier without it in a lot of instances. Sometimes they’re infuriating to watch. As a team, they’re almost the polar opposite to Scotland. One embraces risk. The other is more risk averse.

I’m giving England a little bit of flak, but deep down I’m also acutely aware that they might find a way to win on Saturday. If Jones’ blitz defence really steps up then I might find myself getting flashbacks from when his Springbok team completed shut down Scotland’s attack in Marseille.

That was a systematic hit job, a brilliantly executed plan that saw Finn Russell spend the 80 minutes in a strait-jacket. Scotland’s lethal runners never got the ball. If I’m worried about Saturday, it’s do with Jones and what improvements he might have made to England’s defence in the last fortnight.

Will Scotland be better equipped to handle the blitz this time? Will the attack have more – or some – variety in the face of the blitz? That is my biggest fear. If England’s defence doesn’t give Scotland much – a la France a few weeks ago – then will we see Plan B? Do they have the minerals to unlock that English system at Murrayfield?

Scotland should be two from two and they’ll have to use that loss to France as a driver this weekend, gather up all that emotional energy and bring it to Murrayfield. They can’t do anything about the France game now but they can still draw on it, still use it to propel them into the Calcutta Cup.

For all of Scotland’s dominance over England in recent years the games were still incredibly tight. A five-point win in 2021, a three-pointer in 2022, and a six-pointer last season when Scotland scored one of the country’s greatest tries to get the job done.

Scotland can be inspiring in a way this England team rarely are. Scotland have more tries in them, more attacking brilliance, more licence to create. As a team, they have more cohesion. Much of this side have been together for quite a long time in rugby terms.

Everything points to a home win, but the warning signs are not hard to spot for Scotland. The visitors look a stuffy side, but they have a lot of individual class, forward power and canny operators. They haven’t been impressive in their first two games but they’ve won both of them. They’re the underdogs and they may feed off that.

For a long time the Calcutta Cup was a bit of a procession for England but times have changed. Scotland are going for four in a row for the first time in more than half a century. Most of the pressure is on them. It’s going to be utterly compelling to see how they handle it.

Beattie was talking to BBC Scotland’s Tom English