There’s a fine line between confidence and arrogance.
Florida basketball survived a challenging three-game stretch to start SEC play, bouncing back with back-to-back wins over former No. 1 Tennessee and at Arkansas after losing at No. 9 Kentucky to start the conference season.
Now, the No. 4 Florida Gators (15-1, 2-1 SEC) return home to face Missouri on Tuesday night (9 p.m., ESPNU). The Tigers (13-3, 2-1 SEC) are back on track under third-year coach Dennis Gates. After going 8-24 last season, Missouri beat No. 10 Kansas during its non-conference slate and is coming off back-to-back conference wins over LSU and Vanderbilt.
Florida has won 16 straight at home, with its last loss at the O’Connell Center coming on Jan. 4, 2024, against Kentucky (87-84). After Missouri, Florida will conclude a two-game homestand hosting Texas on Saturday (ESPN/2, 2 p.m. or 4 p.m.)
“We have to come home and handle a really tough challenge and not allow ourselves to believe we are off the hook just because we are playing here at home,” Florida basketball coach Todd Golden said. “Our guys have been really good that way, but Missouri is going to be incredibly challenging.”
Here are three storylines to watch for Florida entering its matchup with the Tigers:
Can Florida basketball sophomore forward Alex Condon continue his high level of play?
Condon earned SEC co-player of the week honors after averaging 12.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.5 blocks in wins against No. 1 Tennessee and at Arkansas. He posted back-to-back double-doubles against the Vols (12 points, 12 rebounds) and Razorbacks (12 points, 10 rebounds) and now has three double-doubles on the season.
Moving into the starting lineup this season hasn’t fazed the 6-foot-11, 230-pound Condon, who is averaging 11.0 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in his sophomore year after earning freshman All-SEC honors playing off the bench.
“Just playing with more confidence, I think,” Condon said.
Condon sank a big 3-pointer down the stretch against Arkansas to put UF up 68-58 with 2:01 remaining and is shooting 42.9% (9-21) from beyond the arc so far this season. He credited point guard Walter Clayton Jr. for finding him on the perimeter for the open shot.
“I was talking to Walt right before, I was like, ‘They’re converging when you are driving, it’s going to be wide open next time,’” Condon said. “He ended up driving, he made the right play, he played off two and it was a wide-open 3 so credit to him for making that play.”
Can Florida basketball guard Walter Clayton Jr. protect the ball and shake a two-game shooting slump?
Clayton has posted an assist-to-turnover ratio of 15-12 through his first three SEC games and is just 7 of 25 from the floor and 3 of 15 from 3-point range over his two games.
“He’s one of the best offensive players in America,” Golden said. “Teams are going to try really hard to bother him, to kind of get him playing on his heels.”
Despite the recent slump, the 6-foot-3 Clayton still ranks seventh in the SEC in scoring (17.2 ppg) and tied for 10th in assists (4.0 apg).
Missouri forces 15.8 turnovers per game and will press on occasion to try to dictate tempo. Clayton and his teammates will need to handle that pressure.
“We are asking him to do so much more than we ever have before,” Golden said. “Playing on the ball, guarding harder, rebounding, orchestrating our offense and he’s done it at an insanely high level. I am really proud of him and he’s a big reason we are having the success we are.”
Can Florida basketball defend effectively without fouling?
Missouri is a dangerous offensive team, averaging 85.1 points per game with three starters averaging double figures in scoring, led by Duke transfer forward Mark Mitchell (13.5 ppg) and senior guard Tamar Bates (13.0 ppg), who averaged 25.5 ppg in two games against UF last season.
The Tigers are averaging 20.8 made free throws per game in 29 trips per game. Florida is coming off a game in which three of its players fouled out ― forward Thomas Haugh, center Rueben Chinyelu and guard Alijah Martin. Arkansas got to the free throw line 35 times against UF but made just 22.
“They shoot a lot of free throws,” Golden said. “So, if they aren’t making baskets, they are getting fouled. They make it very hard on you. That means we have to do a better job defending without fouling. That was an issue for us on Saturday. We can’t let them live at the line tomorrow night. We have to make them finish over us and limit them to one shot.”
Prediction
Florida 81, Missouri 72: Florida will maintain its home win streak behind another balanced scoring effort. Clayton will break out of his shooting slump to lift the offense. UF will withstand Missouri’s on-ball pressure and provide its own on the boards with its four-player frontcourt rotation.
Kevin Brockway is The Gainesville Sun’s Florida beat writer. Contact him at kbrockway@gannett.com. Follow him on X @KevinBrockwayG1
This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Florida basketball vs Missouri scouting report, prediction for SEC game
