Jan. 16—SOUTH BEND — For the third time in the College Football Playoff-era and eighth time since 1999, the betting favorite to win the national championship is at least an 8.5-point favorite.
No. 8-seed Ohio State (13-2) opened up Friday, Jan. 10 as 9.5-point CFP title game favorites over No. 7-seed Notre Dame (14-1). That number has shrunk to 8.5 with just four days remaining before the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish play for the third time in as many seasons.
National Championship favorites are 17-9 since 1999 and have lost just thrice in the playoff-era. The favorite has covered the last five times, including the Georgia’s 65-7 rout of TCU in 2023. The Bulldogs were 14-point favorites over the Horned Frogs.
So, with sportsbooks and betting experts heavily on Ohio State, what can the Fighting Irish do on the field to not only close the gap, but pull off the upset?
CHEW CLOCK, MAINTAIN THIRD DOWN SUCCESS
Part of Notre Dame’s success this season has been the overwhelming number of long, back-breaking scoring drives. The Irish have put together 33 drives lasting nine or more plays. They’ve scored on 25 of them.
In terms of drives lasting over five minutes, Notre Dame has scored on 10-of-18.
That should be the gameplan against a high-flying Ohio State offense averaging over 37 points this postseason.
Limiting the Buckeyes’ possessions can be a double-edged sword, after all, it’s been Notre Dame’s defense that has largely led them to the championship, but if there is one thing a battered Irish defense can afford, it’s rest, and OSU freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith on the sideline.
One way Notre Dame can prolong these drives is continue their recent success on third down.
Entering the postseason, the Irish were a middling 49-of-129 on third down. That’s a success rate of just 38%. In the three-game playoff run, Notre Dame is 22-of-44, up 12 points to 50% in the postseason. Against Penn State, possibly the most physical of the Irish’s three defenses faced, the Irish were 11-of-17.
This newfound success is the route to go. Ohio State’s size advantage in the trenches and stellar secondary will be Notre Dame’s toughest test yet, but if they can piece together these long scoring drives, it’s the first step to hanging with the Buckeyes.
DON’T ABANDON MAN DEFENSE
As previously mentioned, keeping OSU’s Jeremiah Smith on the sideline is a win for the Irish. Smith, the most dangerous of the strong receiving targets for Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, has been a major weapon against man defense all season.
Notre Dame will obviously need to change theirs, but a complete abandonment of their man defense would be a poor decision. The Irish have been the top pass-efficiency defense over the course of the past two seasons — that includes a game against the Buckeyes in South Bend last season where Benjamin Morrison held Marvin Harrison Jr. to just three catches. Harrison captured just as much attention by opposing defenses as does Smith, so in a way, even with Morrison sidelined, ND knows what it’s facing.
The easiest choice would be to lock up Smith and have the Irish defense take their chances with Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. Xavier Watts, Christian Gray, Leonard Moore and Jordan Clark have been able to fill different roles this season, and, for at least the start of Monday’s title game, they should be given the chance to hold their own against Ohio State’s best pass catchers.
TURNOVERS, TURNOVERS, TURNOVERS
It’s probably the most obvious answer, but for Notre Dame to pull off a monumental upset, they’re going to have to steal a possession or two.
That’s not a lot to ask, either. The Fighting Irish have led the country in takeaways almost all season. With 32 turnovers acquired, Notre Dame averages over two a game. Seventeen have come from interceptions. The good news: OSU’s Howard isn’t the cleanest.
The Buckeyes’ QB threw two against Michigan and one in narrow wins over Penn State (20-13) and Nebraska (21-17).
Howard threw his 10th of the season against Texas, which was a tied game with seven minutes to play in the Cotton Bowl CFP Semifinal. In games where Howard doesn’t throw an interception, OSU has a 5-1 record and have outscored opponents 256-66.
As important as it is for the Notre Dame defense to create a few takeaways, it’s equally important to not feed the Buckeyes’ own defense.
Ohio State hasn’t been quite as good at taking away possessions, but they sure are opportunistic when they do. In the Cotton Bowl where Texas was a yard away from tying the game, Jack Sawyer’s 83-yard fumble return put the game on ice.
Simply put, Notre Dame must put together long, clock-draining scoring drives and play to its strengths defensively. Do that, and the Fighting Irish can pull off the largest upset in the national championship game in terms of point-spread since 2003.
Reach Matt Lucas at 574-533-2151, ext. 240325, or at matt.lucas@goshennews.com.
