NBA Cup 2024: The knockout round is here! Let’s break down the juicy quarterfinal matchups

After an alternately exciting and confusing group stage, the 2024 Emirates NBA Cup now moves on to the knockout rounds. Eight teams, four from each conference, will compete in quarterfinal contests on Tuesday and Wednesday for the right to move on to the semifinals in Las Vegas, where they’ll have the chance to compete for the NBA Cup, for whatever bragging rights go with it — your mileage may vary on just how “forever” that particular flag flies — and, of course, for the estimable stacks of cold, hard cash that await the winners.

Before our quarterfinal quartet tips off, let’s reset the table as we return to our irregularly scheduled tournament, already in progress:

Where we left off

We detailed that frantic final evening of group-stage play, with 13 teams vying for the final five spots in the knockout round.

There was drama in Dallas, where the Mavericks had to roar back from a 15-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Grizzlies to keep their hopes alive … and they did just that. Behind a monster final frame driven by the playmaking of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, hot shooting from P.J. Washington and Spencer Dinwiddie, and a disastrous five-turnover, 15-foul stanza from Memphis, the Mavs overtook the Grizz, edging out the at-that-point-still-alive Suns and Trail Blazers to land the West’s wild-card spot.

There was intrigue in Manhattan, where the Knicks were beating the brakes off the Magic to such a degree that the visitors’ chances of securing a knockout spot — previously deemed all but a lock, as Orlando entered with a league-high +60 point differential — were suddenly in doubt. Fears of a total collapse proved premature, though, as the Magic clawed back to a respectable enough final margin to ensure that both participants in that finale advanced — the Knicks as the winners of Group A, and the Magic as the East’s wild card.

By the time the evening ended, we had our eight.

In the West: the defending Western Conference champions (Dallas); a recent NBA champion led by one of the greatest players ever (Golden State); and the teams with the conference’s two best records this year (Oklahoma City and Houston).

In the East: a recent NBA champion led by one of the greatest players ever (Milwaukee); one team that boasts one of the NBA’s most devastating offenses (New York); another that features one of its most suffocating defenses (Orlando); and the only team in the NBA to knock off both the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers (twice) this season (Atlanta).

All told: a pretty fun bunch!

What to know about the quarterfinal matchups

(4) MAGIC AT (1) BUCKS — TUESDAY, 7 P.M. ET (TNT)

• Magic: East wild card, 3-1 record, +45 point differential (W vs. Hornets, W vs. 76ers, W at Nets, L at Knicks)

• Bucks: East Group B winner, 4-0 record, +50 point differential (W vs. Raptors, W vs. Pacers, W at Heat, W at Pistons)

It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Bucks thus far: a dismal 2-8 start marked by disjointed offense and ghastly point-of-attack defense, followed by a 9-1 stretch featuring four group-stage wins to land the East’s No. 1 seed.

This Milwaukee team hasn’t looked as formidable as its predecessors, with head coach Doc Rivers shuffling the deck searching for answers: sliding defense-first wing Andre Jackson Jr. into the starting lineup, finding more minutes for sharpshooter A.J. Green, trying to weather shaky starts from a number of rotation pieces, etc. The Bucks remain dangerous, though, for one very simple reason: They have Giannis Antetokounmpo — playing arguably the best ball of a career that already includes two MVP trophies — and you don’t.

That promises to be a tough challenge for the Magic, who have been one of the NBA’s hottest teams over the past month, but who enter missing both of their star forwards.

Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner have both proven capable of dominating early this season; they’re also, somewhat oddly, now both on the shelf with torn oblique muscles. The Magic have struggled mightily without them, scoring just 102.7 points per 100 possessions in minutes without either of their primary playmakers on the floor — a league-worst level of offensive production.

Jamahl Mosley’s always-tough defense will continue to make Milwaukee work for everything it gets. Jalen Suggs will have to consistently puncture the Bucks’ porous perimeter defense, and Orlando’s bigs will have to create extra possessions on the offensive glass against a Bucks frontline that ranks sixth in defensive rebounding rate. If they can’t, the Magic might have a hard time matching firepower with an Antetokounmpo-and-Damian Lillard-led offense that’s been a top-10 unit over the past month.

(4) MAVERICKS AT (1) THUNDER — TUESDAY, 9:30 P.M. ET (TNT)

• Mavericks: West wild card, 3-1 record, +46 point differential (L at Warriors, W vs. Pelicans, W at Nuggets, W vs. Grizzlies)

• Thunder: West Group B winner, 3-1 record, +45 point differential (W vs. Suns, L at Spurs, W at Lakers, W vs. Jazz)

Oklahoma City enters the Tuesday tilt having won 10 of its last 13 since losing ascendant big man Chet Holmgren to a fractured hip. Dallas has been even hotter, winning seven straight and 11 of 12, even with MVP candidate Luka Dončić missing a half-dozen of those contests. The Thunder and Mavericks are two of five teams that rank in the top 10 on both sides of the ball, along with the Celtics, Cavaliers and Grizzlies; this is a matchup between two of the most balanced, toughest and imposing teams the league has to offer.

It’s also a rematch of an excellent series from the second round of the 2024 NBA playoffs, which saw Dallas take out the higher-seeded Thunder in six games, thanks in large part to complementary Mavericks forwards P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. having the shot-making series of their lives. Jones is gone, but Washington’s still around … and still torturing OKC, as evidenced by his 27-point, 17-rebound performance in Dallas’ win over the Thunder last month:

That game came during the Thunder’s injury-fueled shift to super-small-ball. Since 7-footer Isaiah Hartenstein came back from a fractured hand, Oklahoma City has won seven of eight, outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions overall — and by a whopping 17.7 points-per-100 with Hartenstein, its top free-agent addition, on the floor.

The playoff loss to Dallas spurred OKC’s addition of Hartenstein and Alex Caruso. Now, we get a chance to see whether those acquisitions have sufficiently plugged the Thunder’s few structural holes around the star perimeter tandem of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams … and whether Dallas’ own dynamic duo, Dončić and Irving, can find a way to punch some new ones.

(3) HAWKS AT (2) KNICKS — WEDNESDAY, 7 P.M. ET (ESPN)

• Hawks: East Group C winner, 3-1 record, +15 point differential (W at Celtics, W vs. Wizards, L at Bulls, W vs. Cavaliers)

• Knicks: East Group A winner, 4-0 record, +30 point differential (W at 76ers, W vs. Nets, W at Hornets, W vs. Magic)

For those who crave a little sizzle with their steak, we proudly present: Trae Young in Manhattan.

Both teams have changed dramatically since that ceremonial bow back in 2021. After its big swing on Dejounte Murray missed, the Hawks have pivoted toward long, dynamic athletes — including Dyson Daniels, the NBA leader in steals; No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, holding his own as a 19-year-old starter; and rising star Jalen Johnson, who averaged 20-12-7 in group play — to insulate Young on defense and finish his feeds on offense. So far, so good: Young’s leading the NBA in assists, the Hawks have a league-average defense for the first time in four years, and Atlanta has racked up some impressive wins … including one over New York, with Risacher scoring 33 points.

Since that loss, the Knicks have posted the East’s best net rating. Propelling that rise to the top of the efficiency leaderboard: an offense that not only leads the NBA in points scored per possession, but that ranks as one of the most potent attacks since the ABA-NBA merger in 1976.

Tom Haberstroh and I dug into how importing Karl-Anthony Towns to pair with Jalen Brunson has supercharged New York’s offense on The Big Number:

As overwhelming as the offense has been, though, the Knicks’ defense, which sits 17th in points allowed per possession, has just been … um … whelming.

If Young can get the Knicks off-balance and on their heels early, he could put himself in position to take another bow at MSG — this time, for forcing New York to bow out of its bid for the NBA Cup.

(3) WARRIORS AT (2) ROCKETS — WEDNESDAY, 9:30 P.M. ET (ESPN)

• Warriors: West Group C winner, 3-1 record, +8 point differential, (W at Mavericks, W vs. Grizzlies, W at Pelicans, L at Nuggets)

• Rockets: West Group A winner, 3-1 record, +40 point differential (W vs. Clippers, W vs. Trail Blazers, W at Timberwolves, L at Kings)

The Rockets have soared to within arm’s reach of the top spot in the West on the strength of an uncompromising defense that suffocates opponents into turnovers … which, in turn, kickstarts a surprisingly strong Houston offense that thrives on attacking in transition, generating second-chance opportunities and working its way to the free-throw line.

You have to win the possession battle that way when you’re one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA … and Houston didn’t win it in the Bay last week, falling to a Warriors team that was missing both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green because Golden State cut off the Rockets’ offensive oxygen:

Curry and Green should both be on the floor against Houston on Wednesday. The Warriors have blitzed opponents by 11.4 points-per-100 with the two franchise cornerstones on the court. Whatever else has looked shaky with Steve Kerr’s club — namely, the offense whenever Steph sits down, as the search for a No. 2 scorer continues — when Steph and Draymond are out there, Golden State’s got a shot against anybody.

Will that dynastic partnership run the Warriors’ winning streak over the Rockets to 16 straight? Or will Houston bounce back from last week’s loss to the Dubs — which head coach Ime Udoka called “one of our softest games since I’ve been here, for sure” — by exerting its collective will and physicality to secure a spot in the semis?

What comes next?

The four winners of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s single-elimination quarterfinal games will advance to Las Vegas, where the semifinals will be held on Saturday. The championship game for the NBA Cup will take place Tuesday, Dec. 17.

That championship game will be the only one in the entire tournament that won’t also count toward participants’ regular-season record and statistics. For those two teams, it will count as Game 83. The four teams that lose in the quarterfinals will each play one regular-season game against one another, too, with the games coming on Dec. 12, 13, 15 or 16.

Making the quarterfinals guarantees every player on the participating teams a payout; to the winners, though, go greater spoils, with the tournament champion taking home the biggest bank.

For the inaugural in-season tournament, the prize pool operated in nice round numbers: $50,000 for each player on teams that lose in the quarterfinals; $100,000 for players on teams that lose in the semifinals; $200,000 for players on the team that loses in the final game; and a crisp $500,000 for everyone on the team that hoists the NBA Cup. The math’s a little wonkier this year, thanks to a passage in the collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and its players union stipulating that those prize payouts rise by a “growth factor” tied to any increase in the basketball-related income (BRI) that the league generates.

BRI went up from last season to this one; ergo, so have the payouts:

Granted: not quite as clean as all those zeroes on last year’s winnings. Somehow, though, I don’t think the players will mind.