The Bucks got off to a dreadful start this season, losing eight of their first 10 games to fall to the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings. That losing stretch overshadowed the fact that Giannis Antetokounmpo was playing amazing basketball, turning in better numbers than he did in either of his two MVP-winning campaigns.
He is overlooked no longer.
According to ESPN BET, Antetokounmpo is tied with Luka Doncic for the third-shortest odds to win the NBA MVP this season, behind only Nikola Jokic (-110) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+280). But, does he have a legitimate chance to win his third MVP this season? I say yes.
All odds are accurate as of time stamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.
Scoring leader
Antetokounmpo now leads the NBA in scoring at 32.7 PPG, and more importantly he has found a way to more effectively share the ball and team reins with running mate Damian Lillard.
And he has done so in a surprising way, actually increasing his usage percentage (percentage of possessions ended with a shot, assist or turnover) from 33.0% last season to 36.6% this season. Antetokounmpo led the league in Usage Percentage in 2019-20, the second time he won MVP, and again in 2022-23. But last season it seemed that Giannis and Lillard couldn’t find synergy with each other with both used to handling the ball to such a large degree.
This season, they seem to have found more balance by running more pick-and-roll action with each other as well as having their minutes staggered more effectively by coach Doc Rivers. The two-man game, featuring dribble handoffs along with the on-ball pick, seems to allow both to get touches and get in rhythm at the same time.
Improved chemistry
Antetokounmpo finally seems able to fully recreate the combination of downhill attacking and smart passing that made defenses once have to attempt to “build a wall” of defenders to keep him out of the paint.
With Lillard back to his elite offense-creation as the lieutenant and a roster full of 3-and-D player surrounding them, the Bucks are once again fielding the formidably balanced team offense and defense that led to so much success in previous years.
And that success is the key to Giannis’ MVP hopes. Because while his statistical resume compares to any, he can only be a viable MVP candidate if his team finishes the season among the top of the league. And the way they’ve played for the last month, the Bucks could be on track to contend enough to support his case.
At present, they have won 12 of their last 15 games and risen to the fifth-seed in the Eastern Conference. But they are only 1.5 games out of third. They also, at 14-11, have almost the same record as Jokic’s Nuggets (14-10, fifth seed in the Western Conference).
Giannis’ MVP chances
If Antetokounmpo continues to lead the league in scoring, and the Bucks continue to win at anywhere near this rate, he should move up in the MVP standings. His leading them to the championship game in the NBA Cup is also a boon, because it draws more attention to just how stellar he is playing right now.
I agree that reigning MVP Jokic should, at present, be in the front of the MVP race. And last year’s runner-up SGA also deserves to be in the thick of contention.
That said, Giannis is playing MVP-level ball, and more importantly his team is winning. His MVP odds have a lot more juice than either of the others that, in my opinion, also have a realistic chance of winning. Thus, I do find value in Giannis to win MVP at +700.
