Buckle up: Over the next two weeks, we’re ranking baseball’s best active players at every position.
Our nine-part series begins with starting pitchers, where a reigning Cy Young winner is still without a team just a few weeks out from Opening Day. How did that impact the rankings?
Let’s dive into the top 20 starters heading into the 2024 season.
1. Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
2023 stats: 20-5, 3.86 ERA, 186.2 IP, 281 Ks, 5.5 fWAR
2024 ZiPS projection: 15-6, 3.28 ERA, 161.2 IP, 234 Ks, 4.6 fWAR
It was tough to pick between Strider, Gerrit Cole, and even Zack Wheeler for the No. 1 spot. Ultimately, Strider holds the edge for last year’s league-leading strikeouts (281), and nobody was particularly close. Along the way, his chase and whiff rate improved to the 95th percentile or better, and his walk rate has been steadily decreasing since his rookie year. Even though ZiPS projects Strider to fall back to earth in 2024 with fewer strikeouts and innings pitched, his ERA is expected to improve and his age (25) gives him more upside than other elite starters in the league.
2. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
2023: 15-4, 2.63 ERA, 209 IP, 222 Ks, 5.2 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 11-8, 3.53 ERA, 186.1 IP, 201 Ks, 3.5 fWAR
3. Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
2023: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 192 IP, 212 Ks, 5.9 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 11-7, 3.61 ERA, 172 IP, 172 Ks, 4.5 fWAR
4. Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles
2023: 10-8, 3.39 ERA, 193.2 IP, 200 Ks, 3.4 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 10-7, 3.46 ERA, 179.1 IP, 191 Ks, 4.0 fWAR
5. Pablo López, Minnesota Twins
2023: 11-8, 3.66 ERA, 194 IP, 234 Ks, 4.5 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 10-7, 3.68, 173.2 IP, 189 Ks, 3.7 fWAR
The right-hander with the fifth-best strikeout rate (29.2%) in MLB last year is now a top-five pitcher. The change of scenery from the Marlins to the Twins was a boon in 2023. He went from pitching in a deadly NL East to facing far less intimidating lineups in the AL Central, where his Twins won the division. That should help López once again find success in 2024, particularly if he can hold on to the effectiveness of his sweeper, which was the newest pitch in his repertoire. López limited opposing hitters to a .173 average on his sweeper last year while being aided by jumps in strikeouts and velocity. The 28-year-old has been consistent these past couple of years, so expect him to match or improve his recent production in his second full season in Minnesota.
6. Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
2023: 14-9, 3.34 ERA, 197 IP, 219 Ks, 3.4fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 12-8, 3.27 ERA, 176.1 IP, 187 Ks, 3.9 fWAR
7. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
2023: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 216 IP, 194 Ks, 4.9 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 13-9, 3.33 ERA, 192 IP, 166 Ks, 4.1 fWAR
8. George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
2023: 13-10, 3.35 ERA, 190.2 IP, 172 Ks, 4.4 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 12-8, 3.48 ERA, 168 IP, 151 Ks, 3.5 fWAR
Command artist, much? The right-hander has immaculate control that gives him more wiggle room than most when he does make a mistake. Kirby’s command also aids his elite chase rate, getting hitters to swing on the rarer occasions when he’s not filling up the strike zone. Kirby’s 2023 walk rate (2.5%) was not only MLB’s lowest, but the best by a starting pitcher since 2014. While his relationship with bases on balls is expected to regress in his third full season, he’s proven he can consistently deliver six-plus strong innings per outing.
9. Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
2023: 12-9, 3.16 ERA, 185 IP, 237 Ks, 5.3 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 12-7, 3.46 ERA, 169 IP, 184 Ks, 3.8 fWAR
10. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
2023: 17-6, 1.16 ERA, 171 IP, 176 Ks (Japan Pacific League)
2024 ZiPS: 14-7, 3.63 ERA, 171.1 IP, 168 Ks, 3.9 fWAR
The Japanese hurler is definitely a bit of a mystery as he gets ready for his MLB debut. But he has comfort in Los Angeles, alongside mentor Shohei Ohtani, to get acclimated to a foreign country. Yamamoto’s innings figure to be a bit limited in 2024, as the Dodgers roll out a six-man rotation to maintain the once-a-week routine he’s accustomed to in Japan. Yamamoto’s 95-plus mph fastball, filthy slider, curveball and splitter should all play well in the big leagues, particularly in his rookie year, while opposing hitters are unfamiliar with his repertoire. Here’s guessing he’ll be able to adapt to some basic changes, like a different ball and mound size.
11. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
2023: 12-9, 4.46 ERA, 193.2 IP, 202 Ks, 3.9 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 12-8, 3.84 ERA, 180.2 IP, 188 Ks, 4.9 fWAR
12. Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
2023: 17-9, 3.47 ERA, 210 IP, 220 Ks, 5.2 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 13-9, 3.57 ERA, 186.1 IP, 175 Ks, 2.8 fWAR
13. Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
2023: 12-11, 3.45 ERA, 198 IP, 200 Ks, 4.3 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 14-8, 3.34 ERA, 185.2 IP, 168 Ks, 3.2 fWAR
14. Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
2023: 10-7, 3.53 ERA, 120 IP, 162 Ks, 3.2 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 10-5, 3.58 ERA, 118.1 IP, 147 Ks, 2.4 fWAR
15. Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
2023: 8-1, 2.55 ERA, 77.2 IP, 80 Ks, 1.9 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 11-5, 3.27 ERA, 129.1 IP, 118 Ks, 2.8 fWAR
16. Blake Snell, free agent
2023: 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 180 IP, 234 Ks, 4.1 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 13-8, 3.37 ERA, 160.1 IP, 204 Ks, 3.1 fWAR
Snell is at risk of dropping even lower in these rankings the longer he waits to sign somewhere. By now, clubs are well underway in their ramp-up schedules for starting pitchers, and Snell is decidedly behind in his buildup. However, beyond lacking a home, Snell is unlikely to replicate the outstanding Cy Young success he saw last year — including posting a historic 1.30 ERA in his final 19 starts of the season. And, given his hectic, extended free agency, he is at greater risk of injury if he rushes to get back into form. Moreover, Snell’s 2023 walk year was the only one in which he didn’t miss time. He sustained injuries every year from 2019 to 2022. There has always been a ton of risk to Snell’s game, and 2024 will be no exception.
17. Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles
2023: 12-7, 2.83 ERA, 168.2 IP, 168 Ks, 3.8 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 10-8, 3.71 ERA, 155.1 IP, 148 Ks, 2.3 fWAR
18. Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
2023: 13-7, 3.73 ERA, 190.2 IP, 189 Ks, 3.2 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 11-8, 3.51 ERA, 182.1 IP, 168 Ks, 3.2 fWAR
19. Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
2023: 12-10, 3.86 ERA, 165.2 IP, 210 Ks, 3 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 10-9, 3.86 ERA, 151.2 IP, 173 Ks, 2.8 fWAR
20. Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays
2023: 16-8, 3.50 ERA, 177.2 IP, 186 Ks, 4.8 fWAR
2024 ZiPS: 12-7, 3.37 ERA, 146.2 IP, 143 Ks, 3.4 fWAR
Honorable mentions: Bobby Miller (Los Angeles Dodgers), Kodai Senga (New York Mets), Jordan Montgomery (free agent), Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers), Shota Imanaga (Chicago Cubs), Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins), Grayson Rodríguez (Baltimore Orioles), Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs), Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals), Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
RANKINGS SCHEDULE:
Tuesday: Closers
Wednesday: Catchers
Thursday: First Basemen
Friday: Second Basemen
Monday, 3/11: Third Basemen
Tuesday, 3/12: Shortstops
Wednesday, 3/13: Outfielders
Thursday, 3/14: Designated hitters
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
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