Mizzou is back on the road, and back on the grounds of another highly ranked team.
For the second time in as many Southeastern Conference road games, Missouri basketball will face a top-five team when it travels to face No. 5 Florida on Tuesday evening in Gainesville, Florida.
The Tigers (13-3, 2-1 SEC) bounced back from a loss at now-top-ranked Auburn to open SEC play with home wins over LSU and Vanderbilt.
Florida (15-1, 2-1) lost its conference opener on the road at Kentucky in a 106-100 shootout, and has since defeated Tennessee at home by 30 points and Arkansas on the road.
Here’s what you need to know about the Gators before the Tigers head to play in the O’Dome:
What are Florida’s strengths?
The Gators are an elite outfit on the boards.
CBB Analytics ranks the Gators in the 99th percentile in Division I for offensive rebounding percentage, turning 41.4% of their missed shots into extra possessions. Florida is also exceptionally adept at turning those chances directly into points, averaging 23 second-chance points per game in SEC play. For comparison, Missouri has averaged 13 second-chance points per game in league play.
On the defensive glass, Florida ranks in the 80th percentile in the country, allowing opponents offensive rebounds on just 27.2% of missed shots. That’s second in the SEC only to Kentucky.
Mizzou has actually won the rebounding margin in each of its three SEC games. That will get put to the test Tuesday.
Where can Mizzou get to the Gators?
The biggest disparity between the two teams is how often they each get to the free throw line. Missouri shoots the most from the stripe in the SEC and the third-most in Division I with 28.6 attempts per game. Florida, meanwhile, takes 7.5 fewer free throws per contest.
If Missouri can accentuate that difference — and capitalize when it gets to the line, which has been somewhat of an issue lately — then there’s every chance the Tigers can mitigate a little bit of what the Gators are likely to do well elsewhere.
More: Missouri basketball takeaways: Is free throw shooting going to hurt Mizzou this year?
Florida doesn’t attack the rim quite as much as Mizzou, which explains the free-throw disparity. Instead, the Gators loft a lot of 3-point attempts, taking the second-most shots from behind the arc (27.9) per game in the SEC.
UF struggled from deep on the road against Arkansas, going 8-of-28 (28.5%) but still got across the line for a road win as the Razorbacks were an even-worse 3-of-16.
It’s a narrow path, but a path nonetheless for the Tigers. If Mizzou can battle its way to the line and keep Florida quiet from 3, there’s a way to stay competitive in Gainesville.
Player to watch: Alex Condon
Florida is loaded with talent. Senior point guard Walter Clayton Jr. is a first-team All-SEC candidate, averaging 17.2 points and 4.0 assists per game this season. Graduate guard Alijah Martin is off to a fast start in SEC play, shooting 45.8% from 3 and scoring 19.8 points per game in his past three outings.
But how Missouri handles center Alex Condon is perhaps the most intriguing matchup. He’s averaging a double-double in SEC play so far, and the 6-foot-11 center is facilitating at a high level with 3.7 assists per game.
Josh Gray is Mizzou’s natural answer, but when the Tigers opt to go smaller — which they’ve been doing in their starting lineup lately — the task of guarding Condon will likely fall to Mark Mitchell. As mentioned, Florida is excellent at converting on second-chance opportunities, and Condon is a big reason why. The Tigers have to try and keep those points to a minimum.
Challenge of ranked teams on the road
Here’s how many times the current top-five teams in the NET rankings (Florida is No. 5) have lost at home this season: 0.
Yes, zero.
Tuesday’s contest is already a gargantuan task for MU. Case in point: Florida knocked off then-No. 1 and previously undefeated Tennessee by 30 points last Tuesday in Gainesville. The Tigers learned the hard way at Auburn how much of a challenge life on the road in the SEC can be. It doesn’t get much easier in the next attempt.
Score prediction: Florida 79, Missouri 66
More: Was Missouri basketball’s survival vs Vandy cause for concern or a gutsy win? Perhaps both
The combination of the road environment and the strength of Florida’s roster makes this a likely loss for Mizzou. The Tigers have the pieces to keep it close, but Dennis Gates’ team will need to have one of its better games of the season for that to happen.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Scouting report, score prediction for Missouri basketball at No. 5 Florida
