• What: Michigan State vs. Washington
• When: 8 p.m. Thursday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), 380 (Washington broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 12-2 overall, 3-0 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 14 in the Coaches Poll and No. 16 in The Associated Press Poll and is No. 18 via the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Washington is 10-5 overall, 1-3 in the Big Ten and unranked in both major polls. The Huskies are No. 87 via Kenpom.
• Projected betting line: MSU -13
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 719-297 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Washington — Danny Sprinkle is 116-54 in his sixth season as a head coach, his first with the Huskies. He spent four seasons at Montana State before spending last season at Utah State, where he went 28-7.
• Series: MSU leads 4-2 all-time, meeting most recently in the 2010 Maui Invitational, a game won by MSU. The Spartans have faced the Huskies one other time in the Izzo era, with MSU beating Washington at Breslin Center in the first round of the 1996 NIT, at the end of Izzo’s first season.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 6.1
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.1
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.7
G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 7.1
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.3
Washington
C (32) Wilhelm Breidenbach (6-10) 4.7
PF (1) Great Osobor (6-8) 14.3
SF (8) Tyler Harris (6-8) 12.1
SG (0) Tyree Ihenacho (6-4) 5.0
PG (9) Vazoumana Diallo (6-4) 11.1
• MSU update: The Spartans are in a good place after winning at Ohio State on Friday to move to 3-0 in the Big Ten. MSU’s strong start can be seen in some of their numbers. The Spartans are 10th nationally in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom. They’re in the top 15 in defensive rebounding and 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage. They’re also making 81.3% of their free throws, fifth-best nationally. Individually, sophomore point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. is third in the Big Ten at 6.0 assists per game and is in the top five in college basketball in assist rate, via Kenpom. Junior Jaxon Kohler is sixth in the Big Ten in rebounds, averaging 8.5.
• Washington update: The Huskies’ recent results suggests they might be a tougher out this year in the Big Ten than it appeared early on. Washington lost narrowly at home to Illinois, 81-77, on Sunday, after beating Maryland at home, 75-69, last week. The Huskies also have some less inspiring results — including a nine-point home loss to Seattle right before Christmas and a 24-point home loss at home to USC, after falling more respectively by 11 at UCLA during their two December Big Ten games.
This is a transfer-heavy Washington roster, led by leading scorer and rebounder Great Osobor, a 6-8 power forward who transferred in from Utah State with new head coach Danny Sprinkle after also following Sprinkle from Montana State to Utah State. Osobor is reportedly making $2 million this season on an NIL deal with Washington. There are seven other first-year transfers on the roster, including somewhat familiar names, DJ Davis from Butler, who’s averaging 9.1 points per game and Chris Conway from Oakland, who’s been out all season with an injury.
• Matchup analysis: Osobor is a physical and powerful post presence, who has good feel, positioning and touch around the rim. He’s the best offensive post player the Spartans have faced since Hunter Dickinson in the Kansas game and very different than Dickinson — lower to the ground, more brute force. The Osobor matchup figures to fall on Jaxon Kohler most often. It’s probably worth getting the ball out of his hands with some help defensively, though. Washington starts a big lineup with Osobor next to 6-10 Wilhelm Breidenbach, whose 3-point shot has to be respected. He’s made 8 of 20 tries from deep this season. Freshman Vazoumana “Zoom” Diallo was a good get at point guard. He played well against Illinois and as he continues to grow, so will the Huskies.
Right now, Washington’s greatest strength is guarding the perimeter. Opponents are shooting only 27.6% on 3-point tries against the Huskies, which is seventh-best nationally. Fortunately for the Spartans, they’ve learned to win without hitting many 3s. Washington is not a very good shooting team itself, from distance or the free-throw line (though they have several capable outside shooters, led by Davis, the Butler transfer). And defensively, the Huskies haven’t protected the rim well.
RELATED: Couch: Is Michigan State men’s basketball back? The numbers suggest MSU’s start is real
• Prediction: Washington has some good pieces — one really good one in Osobor. The Huskies have played two true road games thus far and lost by 10 at Nevada and by 11 to UCLA. In both games they fell behind early. The Huskies looked like a chore to deal with this past week, but let’s see them do it on the road before we begin to take them seriously in the Big Ten.
• Make it: MSU 79, Washington 67
MORE: Couch: Inside Jase Richardson’s road from career-threatening surgery to MSU basketball revelation
— Graham Couch
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Washington: Prediction, preview, TV, betting line
