Heading into March, there aren’t many bubble teams facing a tougher stretch than Villanova.
The final three games of the regular season for the Wildcats are all against Quad 1 opponents, a high risk, high reward for a team that has struggled against tougher competition this season and needs those big wins to get in the tournament field.
Consider it a great start.
After getting blitzed from behind the arc to start the game, Villanova used a blazing second-half start to beat Providence 71-60 on the road and likely jump the Friars in securing one of the last mens’ NCAA Tournament spots.
Heading into Saturday, Villanova had lost seven straight games against Quad 1 opponents and was one of the first four teams projected to miss the NCAA Tournament in the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology predictions. Providence didn’t waste time getting its shooting started, catching fire on 3-pointers in the first half and at one point, leading by seven points in a raucous Amica Mutual Pavilion.
But whatever coach Kyle Neptune said at the break worked. Down by three, Villanova started the second half on an 18-2 run and made 13 total 3-pointers that Providence would never recover from, leading the Wildcats to their second win of the season over the Friars.
Less than one month ago, Villanova was 12-11 and well on its way to missing the tournament again. But since then, it has won five of six, with victories over fellow bubble teams like Butler, Seton Hall and now Providence – something that will certainly be under consideration from the selection committee.
The road to securing a spot in March Madness doesn’t get easier for the Wildcats; they have to face Seton Hall on the road next before hosting No. 12 Creighton. But in what is such a pivotal stretch, getting any Quad 1 win is a plus, and Saturday could be a reason why Villanova returns to the big dance for the first time under Neptune. With several teams facing critical matchups on the first weekend of March, Villanova leads the early winners and losers on the bubble.
WINNERS
Colorado State
The Rams can finally feel a sense of relief after holding off a pesky Wyoming team.
Colorado State emerged as a Mountain West title contender in the beginning of February, but the wheels began to fall off when it lost its third in a row after a heartbreaking, buzzer-beating loss to Nevada. This time around, it led for nearly all of the contest against the Cowboys and picked up a 70-62 victory.
While it isn’t a major victory – Wyoming was a Quad 4 team – Colorado State needed a win as it began to plummet down the projected bracket, currently one of three Mountain West teams projected as a No. 10 seed. It also keeps the Rams in contention of getting at least the No. 5 seed in the conference tournament, which means a first-round bye and avoiding a top-three seed until at least the semifinals.
The Mountain West is no easy conference to be in, and Colorado State still has a chance to pick up a solid seed in the NCAA Tournament, as long as it doesn’t fall into any traps.
LOSERS
Providence
It looked like such a promising start for Providence. It felt like it rarely missed a 3-pointer and had an answer for anything Villanova put up in the first 20 minutes of the first half.
But then the second half started, and the Friars went ice cold. After shooting 53.8% from the field with seven 3-pointers in the first half, Providence shot a horrid 26.9% and made only three shots beyond the arc as it was handed a disappointing 11-point loss.
Providence doesn’t have a bad résumé when it comes to qualifying for the NCAA Tournament, but it has to pick up wins when facing other squads in the same position, especially when some of the recent wins haven’t been anything to gloat about. The Friars were projected to be one of the last four teams in to make the tournament, but after Saturday’s loss, they likely could see themselves on the outside looking in.
Oregon
Oregon may have quickly risen into NCAA Tournament consideration, but it may fall just as fast after the shellacking it took from Arizona.
One of the first teams projected to miss the tournament, the Ducks stood no chance against the Arizona buzzsaw Saturday, falling early and never able to pull itself out of a hole in a 103-83 defeat.
It was a tall task for Dana Altman’s team to go into Tucson and beat a Wildcats team that has only lost at home three times in the past three seasons, but a win was necessary when Oregon just entered the conversation as a fringe tournament contender. It only took 10 minutes for Arizona to build up a 17-point lead, and at one point, the Wildcats led by 28.
The Oregon offense did have a good second half, putting up 53 points in the final frame, but it doesn’t mean much when the defense lets the other team make a season-high 14 3-pointers and record a shooting percentage of 61%.
Not all hope is lost entirely for Oregon; it has another Quad 1 opportunity against Colorado next week. But what happened against Arizona might hurt the Ducks too much to recover from.
Mississippi State
Mississippi State has been able to show it can keep up with some of the top teams in the SEC, but anyone that watched what happened in Neville Arena on Saturday saw the Bulldogs had no answer for Auburn.
The Tigers quickly pounced on Mississippi State, getting out to as much as a 19-point lead in the first half, going wire-to-wire in a 78-63 win over a team that entered the week blazing hot. In the first half, the Bulldogs shot 27.6% and had more turnovers (10) than made shots (8). Mississippi State looked more of the tournament team it had become in the second half, but the deficit was too big for it to catch up.
Saturday’s defeat marks two missed opportunities for the Bulldogs this week with two Quad 1 losses after they narrowly fell to Kentucky on Tuesday. There isn’t a need for panic at the moment in Starkville with Mississippi State projected to be a No. 8 seed, but it’ll need to come up big against Texas A&M and South Carolina next week to avoid plummeting down.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bubble winners, losers: Villanova gets critical road win
