March Madness predictions 5.0: Projecting NCAA Tournament bracket for Big 12 basketball teams

The number of days remaining until the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket is revealed can now be counted on a single hand.

March Madness is officially upon us.

Across the country, conference tournaments have either already begun, are set to start in the coming days or, in a select few cases, have already wrapped up.

REQUIRED READING: College basketball rankings: Big 12 teams in updated Coaches Poll, AP Top 25 on March 11

With the Big 12 Tournament set to tip off in Kansas City on Tuesday, the league remains the class of college basketball. The conference, rated as the best in the sport by a sizable margin by KenPom, has a Division I-best nine teams in the projected tournament field, led by No. 1 overall seed Houston. The nine teams in the tournament represent just under two-thirds of the league’s 14-team membership.

Where do the conference’s other teams fall? Here’s the projected bracket and which Big 12 teams made the cut:

2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Note: This projections do not take into account games that took place on Monday, March 11.

** Participating in a play-in game

Last four in

Virginia
Colorado
Seton Hall
St. John’s

First four out

Indiana State
Wake Forest
Pitt
Providence

No. 1 seeds

Houston (28-3, 15-3 Big 12): NET No. 1 | KenPom No. 1
UConn (28-3, 18-2 Big East): NET No. 3 | KenPom No. 2
Purdue (28-3, 17-3 Big Ten): NET No. 2 | KenPom No. 3
North Carolina (25-6, 17-3 ACC): NET No. 7 | KenPom No. 8

At this point, what else is there to say about the Cougars? Despite making the sizable leap in competition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12, coach Kelvin Sampson’s team was as strong as ever, winning its new league by a full two games. It capped off a stellar regular season by pasting Kansas 76-46 last Saturday. At this point, it’s not whether Houston can hold on to a No. 1 seed, but whether it can remain the top overall seed.

No. 2 seeds

Tennessee (24-7, 14-4 SEC): NET No. 5 | KenPom No. 5
Arizona (24-7, 15-5 Pac-12): NET No. 4 | KenPom No. 6
Iowa State (24-7, 13-5 Big 12): NET No. 9 | KenPom No. 12
Marquette (23-8, 14-6 Big East): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 13

While a road loss against Kansas State last Saturday was a bit of a downer, the Cyclones still put together one of their best regular seasons in recent memory. The 24 wins are their most in seven years. Ranked No. 2 in Division I in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, Iowa State is well-positioned to try to make its first Final Four appearance since 1944.

No. 3 seeds

Duke (24-7, 15-5 ACC): NET No. 10 | KenPom No. 7
Creighton (23-8, 14-6 Big East): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 9
Kentucky (23-8, 13-5 SEC): NET No. 19 | KenPom No. 17
Baylor (22-9, 11-7 Big 12): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 14

At 22-9, the Bears have secured their fifth consecutive season with more than 20 wins, something the program had done only three times ever prior to coach Scott Drew’s hiring in 2003. Baylor has nine wins in Quad 1 games, the fourth-most of any Division I team, and has yet to lose in a Quad 3 or Quad 4 contest.

No. 4 seeds

Illinois (23-8, 14-6 Big Ten): NET No. 15 | KenPom No. 10
Kansas (22-9, 10-8 Big 12): NET No. 18 | KenPom No. 18
Auburn (24-7, 13-5 SEC): NET No. 6 | KenPom No. 4
Alabama (21-10, 13-5 SEC): NET No. 8 | KenPom No. 11

What began as a season of immense promise for the Jayhawks, with a preseason No. 1 ranking in the Coaches Poll, will end as a disappointment unless they pull off a deep run in the NCAA Tournament (which, with coach Bill Self at the helm, is certainly possible). Since starting 13-1, Kansas has gone just 9-8 since Jan. 10 and has its most losses in a season in conference play since 1988-89.

No. 5 seeds

BYU (22-9, 10-8 Big 12): NET No. 12 | KenPom No. 16
South Carolina (25-6, 13-5 SEC): NET No. 47 | KenPom No. 43
Utah State (26-5, 14-4 Mountain West): NET No. 32 | KenPom: 44
Texas Tech (22-9, 11-7 Big 12): NET No. 30 | KenPom No. 25

The Cougars held serve last week, falling at Iowa State, which finished off an 18-0 run at Hilton Coliseum in the process, before running away from Oklahoma State last Saturday in their regular-season finale. With its 1-1 record last week, BYU finished the regular season fifth in a conference in which it was 13th of 14 teams in the league’s preseason poll.

The Red Raiders, meanwhile, enjoy a sizable jump after piecing together an emphatic end to the regular season, their first under coach Grant McCasland. After blowing by Oklahoma State by 17, Texas Tech finished off its regular season with a 78-68 home victory against Baylor. With the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments still to go, the Red Raiders have the eighth-most wins in a season in program history.

No. 6 seeds

San Diego State (22-9, 11-7 Mountain West): NET No. 20 | KenPom No. 20
Dayton (24-6, 14-4 Atlantic 10): NET No. 21| KenPom: 28
Wisconsin (19-12, 11-9 Big Ten): NET No. 22 | KenPom No. 21
Clemson (21-10, 11-9 ACC): NET No. 26 | KenPom No. 24

No. 7 seeds

Washington State (23-8, 14-6 Pac-12): NET No. 45 | KenPom No. 45
Saint Mary’s (24-7, 15-1 West Coast): NET No. 17 | KenPom No. 22
Nevada (26-6, 13-5 Mountain West): NET No. 35 | KenPom No. 31
Florida (21-10, 11-7 SEC): NET No. 35 | KenPom No. 30

No. 8 seeds

Boise State (22-9, 13-5 Mountain West): NET No. 23 | KenPom No. 38
Florida Atlantic (24-7, 14-4 American Athletic): NET No. 34 | KenPom No. 37
Texas (20-11, 9-9 Big 12): NET No. 24 | KenPom: No. 23
Gonzaga (24-6, 14-2 West Coast Conference): NET No. 16 | KenPom No. 15

In what had been a disappointing season, the Longhorns finished strong, winning three of their final four games heading into the Big 12 Tournament. That late-season spurt was capped off by a 14-point win last Saturday against rival Oklahoma. Between Max Abmas, Dylan Disu and Tyrese Hunter, Texas has plenty of offensive firepower that could make it a dangerous team both in Kansas City and the NCAA Tournament.

No. 9 seeds

Colorado State (22-9, 10-8 Mountain West): NET No. 36 | KenPom No. 36
TCU (20-11, 9-9 Big 12): NET No. 40 | KenPom No. 33
Michigan State (18-13, 10-10 Big Ten): NET No. 25 | KenPom No. 19
Nebraska (22-9, 12-8 Big Ten): NET No. 37 | KenPom No. 32

Though still comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field, the Horned Frogs aren’t heading into the most important weeks of their season playing their best ball. After an 18-7 start, TCU went just 2-4 in its final six regular-season games, which included a 79-77 home loss last Saturday against UCF.

REQUIRED READING: This was the Tyrese Hunter that Texas basketball has been waiting to see | Bohls

No. 10 seeds

Northwestern (21-10, 12-8 Big Ten): NET No. 50 | KenPom No. 42
Oklahoma (20-11, 8-10 Big 12): NET No. 43 | KenPom No. 40
Mississippi State (19-12, 8-10 SEC): NET No. 42 | KenPom No. 39
New Mexico (22-9, 10-8 Mountain West): NET No. 28 | KenPom No. 34

The Sooners’ final season in the Big 12 didn’t end on a high note. At 18-6 just one month ago, Oklahoma went 2-5 in its final seven regular-season games, though each loss came against a team ranked in the top 25 by KenPom. The loser of its second-round Big 12 Tournament matchup against TCU on Wednesday will end up having a much more anxious Selection Sunday than it would have anticipated a few weeks ago.

No. 11 seeds

Drake (28-6, 16-4 Missouri Valley): NET No. 47 | KenPom No. 50
Princeton (23-3, 11-2 Ivy): NET No. 48 | KenPom No. 57
Virginia (22-9, 13-7 ACC)**: NET No. 51 | KenPom No. 66
Colorado (22-9, 13-7 Pac-12)**: NET No. 27 | KenPom No. 27
Seton Hall (20-11, 13-7 Big East)**: NET No. 62, KenPom No. 56
St. John’s (19-12, 11-9 Big East)**: NET No. 39 | KenPom No. 31

No. 12 seeds

Grand Canyon (27-4, 17-3 Western Athletic): NET No. 53 | KenPom No. 55
South Florida (23-6, 16-2 American Athletic): NET No. 78 | KenPom No. 88
Richmond (23-8, 15-3 Atlantic 10): NET No. 71 | KenPom No. 81
James Madison (30-3, 15-3 Sun Belt): NET No. 55 | KenPom No. 68

No. 13 seeds

McNeese (28-3, 17-1 Southland): NET No. 58 | KenPom No. 65
Samford (28-5, 15-3 Southern): NET No. 74 | KenPom No. 80
UC Irvine (24-8, 17-3 Big West): NET No. 73 | KenPom No. 73
Charleston (25-7, 15-3 Colonial Athletic): NET No. 100 | KenPom No. 100

No. 14 seeds

Vermont (26-6, 15-1 America East): NET No. 103 | KenPom No. 103
Morehead State (26-8, 14-4 Ohio Valley): NET No. 106 | KenPom No. 112
Toledo (20-11, 14-4 Mid-American): NET No. 128 | KenPom No. 133
Oakland (21-11, 15-5 Horizon): NET No. 129 | KenPom No. 137

No. 15 seeds

Colgate (24-9, 16-2 Patriot): NET No. 131 | KenPom No. 149
Montana (21-10, 12-6 Big Sky): NET No. 136 | KenPom No. 155
South Dakota State (20-12, 12-4 Summit): NET No. 146 | KenPom No. 141
Sam Houston State (20-11, 13-3 Conference USA): NET No. 153 | KenPom No. 143

No. 16 seeds

Quinnipiac (23-8, 15-5 Metro Atlantic Athletic): NET No. 168 | KenPom No. 175
Longwood (21-13, 6-10 Big South): NET No. 160 | KenPom No. 158
Stetson (22-12, 11-5 ASUN)**: NET No. 209 | KenPom No. 214
Merrimack (21-11, 13-3 Northeast)**: NET No. 200 | KenPom No. 200
Norfolk State (21-10, 11-3 Mid-Eastern Athletic)**: NET No. 221 | KenPom No. 237
Grambling (17-14, 14-4 Southwestern Athletic)**: NET No. 293 | KenPom No. 286

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: March Madness predictions 5.0: 2024 NCAA Tournament bracketology for Big 12

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