March Madness predictions 4.0: Projecting NCAA Tournament bracket for Big 12 basketball teams

In fewer than two full weeks, the day that stands as a finish line for much of men’s college basketball will finally arrive and, at last, a bracket will be revealed.

For now, guesses at what that 68-team concoction will look like continue.

How will the Big 12 factor into that?

Heading into the final week of the regular season, the conference has an astonishing nine teams in the field, representing nearly two-thirds of its 14 members. It has one team in each of the top five seed lines and each of its nine projected tournament inclusions is at least a No. 9 seed.

REQUIRED READING: College basketball rankings: Big 12 teams in updated Coaches Poll, AP Top 25 on March 4

Leading that group is newcomer Houston, which continues to roll along in its first season in the conference, but Iowa State, Kansas and Baylor are each projected to be top-four seeds. Fellow new arrival BYU is a projected No. 5 seed while Texas Tech, TCU, Texas and Oklahoma are all safely in the field for now.

Where do things stand now, with several big games looming in the next two weeks? Here’s a look at the projected bracket and where Big 12 teams fit in that larger picture:

2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Note: These projections do not take into account games that took place on Monday, March 4.

** Participating in a play-in game

Last four in

Virginia
Wake Forest
Colorado
Villanova

First four out

Seton Hall
Providence
St. John’s
Pitt

No. 1 seeds

Houston (26-3, 13-3 Big 12): NET No. 1 | KenPom No. 1
UConn (26-3, 16-2 Big East): NET No. 3 | KenPom No. 2
Purdue (26-3, 15-3 Big Ten): NET No. 2 | KenPom No. 3
Arizona (23-6, 14-4 Pac-12): NET No. 4 | KenPom No. 4

At No. 1 in both the USA TODAY Coaches Poll and AP Top 25, as well as both of the major aforementioned metrics, the Cougars have temporarily established themselves as the top team among a trio of squads that are the unimpeachable Nos. 1-3 in the sport right now. Barring losses in their final two regular-season games and an early exit from the Big 12 tournament, Kelvin Sampson’s team will be a No. 1 seed. And it still might be even if it experiences those late-season stumbles.

No. 2 seeds

Tennessee (23-6, 13-3 SEC): NET No. 5 | KenPom No. 5
North Carolina (23-6, 15-3 ACC): NET No. 9 | KenPom No. 9
Iowa State (23-6, 12-4 Big 12): NET No. 8 | KenPom No. 10
Marquette (22-7, 13-5 Big East): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 13

After a one-week absence, the Cyclones are back on the No. 2 seed line. In an exhaustingly competitive conference, Iowa State has won seven of its past eight games, with the lone loss during that spurt coming on the road against top-ranked Houston. It faces a stiff challenge on Wednesday against BYU, though that game comes at home, where the Cyclones are 17-0 this season.

No. 3 seeds

Duke (23-6, 14-4 ACC): NET No. 10 | KenPom No. 7
Kansas (21-8, 9-7 Big 12): NET No. 18 | KenPom No. 17
Alabama (20-9, 12-4 SEC): NET No. 7 | KenPom No. 8
Creighton (22-8, 13-6 Big East): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 11

The Jayhawks had a week to forget, with losses in back-to-back games for the first time this season. Though a loss at Baylor is far from shocking, falling at to BYU last Tuesday at Allen Fieldhouse, where Kansas had been 14-0 prior to that defeat, raised more than a few eyebrows. It’s the first time ever under coach Bill Self that the Jayhawks have lost at least seven games in Big 12 play. A home game against Kansas State should give it a good opportunity to rebound before a high-stakes regular-season finale at Houston awaits.

No. 4 seeds

Auburn (22-7, 11-5 SEC): NET No. 6 | KenPom No. 6
Illinois (22-7, 13-5 Big Ten): NET No. 15 | KenPom No. 12
Baylor (21-8, 10-6 Big 12): NET No. 13 | KenPom No. 14
Kentucky (21-8, 11-5 SEC): NET No. 20 | KenPom No. 18

The Bears responded to back-to-back losses with back-to-back wins, defeating TCU on the road and Kansas at home to keep themselves in strong contention for a top-three seed. The victories gave them at least 20 wins for the sixth consecutive season and the 15th time in 21 seasons under coach Scott Drew. Prior to Drew’s hiring in 2003, Baylor had just three seasons ever with at least 20 wins.

No. 5 seeds

San Diego State (22-7, 11-5 Mountain West): NET No. 19 | KenPom No. 19
BYU (21-8, 9-7 Big 12): NET No. 12 | KenPom No. 16
South Carolina (24-5, 12-4 SEC): NET No. 47 | KenPom No. 43
Washington State (23-7, 14-5 Pac-12): NET No. 37 | KenPom No. 39

The Cougars picked up a signature win in what was already a strong debut season in the Big 12 when it knocked off Kansas last Tuesday in Lawrence. It followed that up with a home win against TCU. Mark Pope’s team has hummed offensively this season, ranking ninth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, while attempting 50.4% of its shots from 3-point range, the fourth-highest mark in the country.

No. 6 seeds

Saint Mary’s (24-7, 15-1 West Coast): NET No. 17 | KenPom No. 22
Wisconsin (18-11, 10-8 Big Ten): NET No. 23 | KenPom No. 23
Dayton (22-6, 12-4 Atlantic 10): NET No. 21| KenPom: 27
Clemson (20-9, 10-8 ACC): NET No. 25 | KenPom No. 25

No. 7 seeds

Utah State (24-5, 12-4 Mountain West): NET No. 36 | KenPom: 42
Texas Tech (20-9, 9-7 Big 12): NET No. 42 | KenPom No. 33
Boise State (21-8, 12-4 Mountain West): NET No. 24 | KenPom No. 34
Florida (20-9, 10-6 SEC): NET No. 33 | KenPom No. 31

The Red Raiders were drubbed at home by rival Texas in a game defined at least in some part by the behavior of the crowd at United Supermarkets Arena, which threw objects on the court after Texas’ Brock Cunningham committed a flagrant two foul. Texas Tech rebounded later in the week, though, with a road victory at West Virginia. Its four Quad 1 wins and lack of a Quad 3 or Quad 4 loss have it in a good position.

No. 8 seeds

Colorado State (21-9, 9-8 Mountain West): NET No. 34 | KenPom No. 36
TCU (19-10, 8-8 Big 12): NET No. 38 | KenPom No. 32
Florida Atlantic (22-7, 12-4 American Athletic): NET No. 35 | KenPom No. 40
Nevada (24-6, 11-5 Mountain West): NET No. 40 | KenPom No. 41

The Horned Frogs are stumbling a bit down the stretch, with a 3-5 record in their past eight games, though each of those five losses came against a projected tournament team. Jamie Dixon’s team has a chance to finish the regular season on a strong note with a game at last-place West Virginia and a home contest against UCF.

No. 9 seeds

Michigan State (17-12, 9-9 Big Ten): NET No. 22 | KenPom No. 20
Mississippi State (19-10, 8-8 SEC): NET No. 32 | KenPom No. 30
Texas (19-10, 8-8 Big 12): NET No. 27 | KenPom: No. 26
Oklahoma (19-10, 7-9 Big 12): NET No. 41 | KenPom No. 37

What had been a reeling Longhorns team got exactly what it needed last week with a commanding win at Texas Tech, which had been 14-1 at home this season entering the matchup, followed up by a 16-point victory against Oklahoma State. Texas has strong metrics, is 5-7 in Quad 1 games and has an experienced roster that should help it navigate some of the challenges that present themselves in March.

Oklahoma, Texas’ longtime rival and soon-to-be SEC foe, went 0-2 last week while facing off against the Big 12’s top two teams in Houston and Iowa State. The Sooners very nearly knocked off the top-ranked Cougars, but Jamal Shead’s bucket with 0.4 seconds left broke a tie and allowed Houston to leave Norman with a victory. Oklahoma has lost four of its past five games and has a tough matchup Saturday against Texas at the Moody Center.

No. 10 seeds

Northwestern (20-9, 11-7 Big Ten): NET No. 53 | KenPom No. 46
New Mexico (21-8, 9-7 Mountain West): NET No. 28 | KenPom No. 38
Gonzaga (24-6, 14-2 West Coast Conference): NET No. 16 | KenPom No. 15
Nebraska (21-9, 11-8 Big Ten): NET No. 43 | KenPom No. 34

REQUIRED READING: Texas basketball preview, prediction: Longhorns hope to get season sweep at No. 15 Baylor

No. 11 seeds

Indiana State (26-5, 17-3 Missouri Valley): NET No. 29 | KenPom No. 45
Princeton (23-3, 11-2 Ivy): NET No. 51 | KenPom No. 64
Virginia (21-9, 12-7 ACC)**: NET No. 49 | KenPom No. 69
Wake Forest (18-11, 10-8 ACC)**: NET No. 31, KenPom No. 21
Colorado (20-9, 11-7 Pac-12)**: NET No. 30 | KenPom No. 29
Villanova (17-12, 10-8 Big East)**: NET No. 26 | KenPom No. 24

No. 12 seeds

Grand Canyon (26-4, 16-3 Western Athletic): NET No. 55 | KenPom No. 57
McNeese (26-3, 15-1 Southland): NET No. 56 | KenPom No. 66
South Florida (22-5, 15-1 American Athletic): NET No. 79 | KenPom No. 89
Richmond (22-7, 14-2 Atlantic 10): NET No. 70 | KenPom No. 77

No. 13 seeds

Appalachian State (26-5, 16-2 Sun Belt): NET No. 69 | KenPom No. 73
Samford (26-5, 15-3 Southern): NET No. 81 | KenPom No. 86
UC Irvine (22-8, 15-3 Big West): NET No. 76 | KenPom No. 74
Charleston (24-7, 15-3 Colonial Athletic): NET No. 102 | KenPom No. 104

No. 14 seeds

Akron (21-8, 13-3 Mid-American): NET No. 102 | KenPom No. 101
Vermont (24-6, 14-1 America East): NET No. 97 | KenPom No. 97
High Point (24-7, 13-3 Big South): NET No. 108 | KenPom No. 112
Oakland (20-11, 15-5 Horizon): NET No. 138 | KenPom No. 141

No. 15 seeds

Colgate (22-9, 16-2 Patriot): NET No. 131 | KenPom No. 143
Eastern Washington (20-10, 14-3 Big Sky): NET No. 132 | KenPom No. 137
South Dakota State (19-12, 12-4 Summit): NET No. 152 | KenPom No. 149
Sam Houston State (18-11, 11-3 Conference USA): NET No. 161 | KenPom No. 154

No. 16 seeds

Quinnipiac (21-8, 13-5 Metro Atlantic Athletic): NET No. 167 | KenPom No. 189
Little Rock (20-11, 14-4 Ohio Valley): NET No. 188 | KenPom No. 192
Eastern Kentucky (17-13, 12-4 ASUN)**: NET No. 205 | KenPom No. 200
Central Connecticut State (19-10, 13-2 Northeast)**: NET No. 231 | KenPom No. 253
Norfolk State (19-10, 9-3 Mid-Eastern Athletic)**: NET No. 233 | KenPom No. 254
Grambling (15-13, 12-3 Southwestern Athletic)**: NET No. 294 | KenPom No. 285

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: March Madness predictions 4.0: 2024 NCAA Tournament bracketology for Big 12

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