ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — Up by two points with 2:27 remaining, the Buffalo Bills needed a play.
Facing fourth-and-2 on the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs‘ 26-yard line, the Bills’ offense remained on the field. Bills quarterback Josh Allen got the snap in shotgun formation and first looked to his left, faking a pass to running back Ty Johnson.
Allen stepped farther back before identifying a lane and starting to run. He darted past Chiefs defenders as defensive tackle Mike Pennel and then cornerback Nazeeh Johnson attempted to bring him down. Linebacker Nick Bolton tried to tackle Allen as he neared the end zone, but he escaped before falling into the end zone as safety Bryan Cook tried one last time to take him down.
4th-and-2, two point game vs. the Chiefs. And Josh Allen does that. 26-yard TD run. Incredible play. pic.twitter.com/Xx7Jrbm6J8
— Alaina Getzenberg (@agetzenberg) November 18, 2024
“It was crazy,” Bills wide receiver Amari Cooper said of Allen’s performance in the Week 11 matchup. “… He used to take a lot of hits, but he used to obviously have these big runs, but he was sliding all game. So, I wasn’t sure if he was going to go for it. … He knew the situation like, ‘Yo, we need to score. We have this great offense on the other side. I can’t slide right here.'”
The game-winning touchdown not only showed signs of the Bills’ dominance but also ignited Allen’s most valuable player campaign. He is the favorite to win the award (-225, per ESPN BET) with two games to go in the regular season, starting Sunday vs. the New York Jets (1 p.m. EST, CBS). His campaign, however, is saddled with fierce competition.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson‘s performance vs. the Houston Texans on Christmas Day improved his odds to +180. Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is behind them at +1800 and Cincinnati Bengals‘ QB Joe Burrow may be listed at +10000 odds but has a compelling statistical argument for the award, especially if the Bengals sneak into the playoffs.
Entering Sunday of Week 18 in 2023, Lamar Jackson was a -190 favorite to win MVP, lesser odds than Allen has now.
With one more game played, Jackson has accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s touchdowns (71.7% to 63.8%), however, he is complemented by a running back in Derrick Henry who has the second-most yards from scrimmage per game. The Ravens have played 10 one-score games to the Bills’ seven, with Allen sitting out the end of multiple lopsided matchups. That could come up again toward the end of MVP voting as the Bills could clinch playoff seeding Sunday, while the Ravens will still have the division to play for Week 18.
“A Super Bowl would mean a lot more [than MVP], and I think that his drive for that is more than what he cares about for the MVP,” Bills safety Micah Hyde said. “Actually, I know, that’s a fact. … [But] I’ll say it for guys in the league, guys want their own personal stats, and if they deny that, that’s a damn lie and for him to win an MVP and bring that here to One Bills Drive, that’d be pretty damn awesome.”
Allen’s 37 combined rushing and passing touchdowns with two games to go would rank eighth among players to win MVP, however, it’s worth noting that last year’s MVP — Jackson — had one of the worst statistical seasons by an NFL MVP.
Teammates and those who have watched him along the way say that this year, more than before, Allen’s leadership and maturation have been MVP-worthy.
Allen’s case for MVP includes improved decision-making, total command of the offense, excelling under pressure — in terms of big-game moments and pressure from defenders — combining his abilities with his legs and arm, and leading the team in ways he hadn’t done as consistently in previous years. He has done this despite dealing with hand and other injuries.
“It’s the best I’ve seen him play and not surprised,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said after the Week 14 win over the Detroit Lions. “When he sets a goal for himself, for the team, he’s hard to stop. So, people have tried, they’ll keep trying, that’s what we do in this league. … Every week, we’re watching an incredible player play incredibly consistent week after week and I’ll let you guys fill in the rest of the sentence.”
The seventh-year quarterback has never won the prestigious award. He was the runner-up in 2020 to Aaron Rodgers. Allen, 28, would become the third Bills player to win the award and the first quarterback (O.J. Simpson, 1973 and Thurman Thomas, 1991).
When asked about winning the award, Allen makes his goals pretty clear.
“The only good takeaway [is] that I feel like [it] means your team’s in a position to make the playoffs and give yourselves the chance to win the Super Bowl,” Allen said of the award. “That’s really all I care about.”
No quarterback who has won MVP has more rushing touchdowns than Allen this season (11). He has set countless records along the way — becoming the first player to account for six touchdowns in a regular-season game vs. the Los Angeles Rams, only to rack up four more against the Detroit Lions.
Coming into the year, there were questions from outside the organization about how Allen would perform without No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs. The front office didn’t acquire an obvious No. 1 receiver to replace Diggs and only one player on the roster had caught a pass from Allen coming into the year — Khalil Shakir.
The Bills added Cooper via trade in October — with Cooper contributing 17 catches for 241 yards and one touchdown in addition to his veteran presence — but no true No. 1 receiver has materialized and the offense under Allen has arguably been the best of his career.
In coordinator Joe Brady’s first full season with the Bills, the offense has tied an NFL record with eight straight games of 30-plus points.
Brady’s playcalling has helped Allen put together this type of season and created a system where a variety of players have found success.
“He’s locked in. He gets the game. He’s prepared. He has a fine line of making sure that he’s loose with the guys, has a great pulse of the locker room, and knowing that he’s going to be ready to go and the guys follow him,” Brady said. “… The only thing he cares about is finding ways to win football games. I think our team kind of embodies that as well because of him.”
The Bills’ offensive line has allowed just 14 sacks, 10 fewer than any season of Allen’s career at this point and has been vital in the success of its quarterback. To top it off, running back James Cook has put together an explosive season with the second-most touchdowns from scrimmage in a season in Bills history (16). Though only one player gets the MVP award, as has been the case with many accolades for Allen this season, the play of the offensive players around him, especially up front, is instrumental.
“It’s fun having him behind you,” Bills center Connor McGovern told ESPN. “If you give him an extra second, he can make anything happen. … There’s a lot of other phenomenal players, especially at the quarterback position, but he’s just in a league of his own.”
