Tennessee‘s last hope of hosting a College Football Playoff game depends on a blowout in the SEC or Big Ten title games.
The Vols probably would need Georgia or Penn State to lose by a wide margin in their conference championship games to keep the possibility open.
No. 2 Texas (11-1) plays No. 5 Georgia (10-2) in the SEC championship game on Saturday (4 p.m. ET, ABC). No. 1 Oregon (12-0) plays No. 3 Penn State (11-1) in the Big Ten championship game on Saturday (8 p.m., CBS).
But even if those blowout losses occurred, the CFP selection committee might not drop the losing teams behind Tennessee in the rankings. However, committee chairman Warde Manuel left the door slightly open to that possibility.
“It depends on the outcome of the game as we watch the game and the results of the game and the outcome as to whether or not teams will move above (or) below other teams that are ranked in the Top 25,” Manuel said on a CFP teleconference with reporters after the rankings were released Tuesday night.
“I can’t tell you the answer because we have not as a committee seen the outcome of the (championship) games.”
Here’s where Tennessee ranks and where it wants to go
Tennessee is ranked No. 7 in the updated CFP poll. That’s equivalent to the No. 9 seed because two lower-ranked conference champions get automatic first-round byes.
Tennessee (10-2) is slotted to play at No. 8 seed Ohio State (10-2) in a first-round game, but the bracket isn’t set yet.
VOLS BEHIND OHIO STATE? Explaining Tennessee’s ranking in College Football Playoff poll
The final playoff selections and matchups will be announced on Sunday (noon, ESPN). And the Vols need to move up one spot to host a first-round game.
Manuel said the only possible movement in the rankings would occur because of conference championship games. Here’s how that could help Tennessee land a home playoff game at Neyland Stadium, although the chances aren’t great.
Georgia’s win over Tennessee doesn’t lock in the rankings
For Tennessee to jump ahead of Georgia, it needs the selection committee to minimize the importance of a head-to-head result.
Georgia beat Tennessee 31-17 on Nov. 16 in Athens. But Manuel declined to say that the head-to-head win would assure Georgia of finishing ahead of Tennessee in the rankings if they lost to Texas.
“There are multiple things that we consider, multiple data points, strength of schedule. There’s all kinds of data that we look at to evaluate,” Manuel said. “It’s not one stat or data point that determines how we rank the teams.
“We will see how the (SEC championship) game goes, and we will definitely rank them as we see the results of the game, again, with a high regard for those teams who have made the championships.”
If Penn State lost, its resume could be scrutinized
For Tennessee to jump ahead of Penn State, it needs the Nittany Lions to take a major tumble in the rankings.
If Oregon won the Big Ten title in a rout, it would highlight a weakness in Penn State’s resume. The Nittany Lions have only one win over a Top 25 team, and that was over No. 21 Illinois.
Tennessee beat No. 11 Alabama for its best win.
Manuel said teams will be given credit for making their conference championship game. But the result of the game will factor into the final ranking.
“The committee has coaches, athletic directors (and) former players who have played the game,” said Manuel, the Michigan athletics director who played for the Wolverines in the 1980s.
“We have great respect for the teams that make their championship games, and we give them a lot of credit for what they’ve done throughout the season. But we’ve been asked by the commissioners to rank the Top 25 through the end of the championship weekend, and so we have an obligation to take a look at those data points and the outcomes of those games.”
Here’s a twist: Vols could play at Penn State
There may be a greater chance that Penn State hosts Tennessee in a first-round game if it loses to Oregon.
Penn State lost to Ohio State, 20-13, in the regular season. The committee may consider dropping the Nittany Lions behind the Buckeyes. If so, Penn State would be the No. 8 seed and host No. 9 seed Tennessee.
There are numerous scenarios that could still play out for the Vols. But their path to hosting a game is getting narrow.
Fortunately, Tennessee is ranked high enough that it’s assured of making the 12-team playoff. But the time, place and opponent are still in unknown for its first-round game.
All first-round games will be played at campus sites, including one game on Dec. 20 and three games on Dec. 21.
Quarterfinals will be at bowl sites: Fiesta Bowl (Dec. 31), Peach Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl (Jan. 1), Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1). Semifinals will be at the Orange Bowl (Jan. 9) and Cotton Bowl (Jan. 10). The national championship game will be on Jan. 20 in Atlanta.
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football needs help to host CFP game at Neyland Stadium
