How Lions and Bills match up ahead of game of the season

The Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills are two of the 12 NFL teams that have never won a Super Bowl. A third of those franchises have never appeared in the game, including the Lions. None has lost four straight appearances like the Bills.

The two Canadian-border cities have supported their teams through thick and thin. Detroit and Buffalo both dream of achieving football’s highest level of success — so far, out of reach.

The two teams will meet on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) in what could be a Super Bowl preview. The Lions (37.9%) and Bills (27.2%) are the favorites in their conferences to reach the Super Bowl, according to ESPN Analytics.

With both teams already punching the ticket to the postseason, the next step for the Lions is winning the NFC North with the Bills having already clinched the AFC East. Both teams have their eyes on the No. 1 seed with four games to go. The Bills (10-3) and Lions (12-1) enter this matchup with a combined win percentage of .846, tied for the fourth highest entering a matchup in Week 15 or later since the 1970 merger, per ESPN Research.

The quarterbacks have led the way. The Bills’ Josh Allen is the leader in MVP odds, per ESPN BET, and leads the league in Total QBR (76.7), while the Lions’ Jared Goff has put together the best season of his career, completing 72.4% of passes. The performances have led to high-scoring offenses. This will be the fourth time since the 1970 merger that two teams averaging 30 points per game met in Week 15 or later, per Elias Sports Bureau.

Game of the season? Maybe so. Here’s how the two teams stack up.

Detroit Lions (12-1)

FPI overall ranking: 1st (8.4)

Chances to win division: 89.4%

Chances to make the playoffs: 100%

Chances to earn No. 1 seed: 76%

Chances to reach/win Super Bowl: 38.7 / 24.7%

Remaining schedule: vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

What makes the Lions offense so good?

The simple answer is the talent on this roster. However, it’s much more than that. Goff is guiding the ship alongside coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes. The Lions have put together a roster full of young players through the draft who have contributed immediately, such as WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Jameson Williams, TE Sam LaPorta and RT Penei Sewell, who are all 25 or younger.

Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is also arguably the league’s top playcaller, and he isn’t afraid to pull out all the stops on any given possession. Under his guidance, the Lions have one of the most creative and productive offenses in the NFL, which has helped make Johnson a top head coaching candidate heading into the offseason.

How has Goff made an impact on this team?

Goff is having an MVP-caliber season, aided by the many weapons around him. Entering Sunday’s matchup, the first overall pick from 2016 has completed at least 75% of his passes seven times this season, which is tied for the second-most such games in a season all-time behind Tom Brady (eight in 2007), per ESPN Research, with a minimum 15 pass attempts in each game. More importantly, Goff has earned the trust of his teammates as the guy to get the franchise to its first Super Bowl.

“The way he goes about his business, he comes in each and every day the same guy and everybody gravitates towards his energy,” Sewell told ESPN. “We all just follow, and we all love that about him.”

How can the Lions reach the Super Bowl?

The Lions have a top-five offense and a top-five defense and have reeled off 11 consecutive victories. So, they just need to continue performing at that level. They can’t skip steps and Campbell is always stressing attention to detail each week during preparation. With the squad they have, Detroit is confident and presents a nightmare matchup for any team in the league.

“We still understand the assignment. We know no matter what, it’s up to us,” Lions rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold told ESPN. “We’re not looking at the other factors as far as what they do, it goes through us.”

What could keep the Lions from making a deep playoff run?

Injuries. It’s a miracle that Detroit has continued to play at such a high level while being without the likes of Pro Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who suffered a broken tibia and fibula in Week 6 at Dallas. But he’s not the only defender down.

The Lions had a league-high 13 defensive players on the injured reserve list for last week’s 34-31 over the Packers, and then saw defensive tackle Alim McNeill ruled out for the second half with a concussion. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has so far been able to adapt, but you must wonder whether these injuries will catch up at some point.

Who do the Lions have to worry about in this upcoming matchup?

With the Lions (32.1 PPG) and Bills (30.5 PPG) ranking first and second in the NFL in scoring offense this season, Detroit’s defense must be ready for the challenge. Buffalo has explosive weapons in quarterback Josh Allen, running back James Cook and wide receiver Khalil Shakir. Even with all of Detroit’s defensive injuries, Lions cornerback Carlton Davis said they’ll continue to view the Bills as a “nameless, faceless opponent” — meaning the team’s main focus is on week-to-week improvement, no matter the opponent.

“I feel like we’ve been getting tested all year. Last week was a test with Green Bay coming in hot and we’ve had different tests this year,” Davis told ESPN. “It’s part of the game, it’s the NFL … for us, we’re just going to work. We’re clocking in and however your habits are will make you win. It’s the same.”

Buffalo Bills (10-3)

FPI overall ranking: 2nd (6.7)

Chances to win division: 100%

Chances to make the playoffs: 100%

Chances to earn No. 1 seed: 17.1%

Chances to reach/win Super Bowl: 27.2% / 14.1%

Remaining schedule: @ Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, @ Patriots

What makes the Bills offense so good?

Josh Allen. This offense is not nearly as good or successful without No. 17.

Many of the statistics don’t necessarily jump off the page for the quarterback, but he has thrown just five interceptions compared to 14 through 13 games last season and the Bills are second in the league in turnovers.

The offensive line has been another key reason for the Bills’ success, allowing a league-low 13 sacks and having consistency, with only one starter missing a game this year. This is a line that can be dominant up front as seen in the win over the 49ers (220 rushing yards).

How has Allen made an impact on this team?

How hasn’t he would be a shorter question to answer. He’s stepped up as a leader this year as one of two team captains (the other, LB Terrel Bernard).

In his seventh season, Allen has shown the ability to put the team on his back and score both with his legs and his arm. He is tied for second in the NFL in total touchdowns (32).

The Bills have won games this season in large part because of Allen’s ability to make a play when it’s needed; there’s no better example than his winning touchdown run on fourth down to beat the Kansas City Chiefs.

How can the Bills reach the Super Bowl?

Everything falling into place. That could sound overly simple, but in playoff run after playoff run for the Bills all sorts of hurdles have impeded their way. From injuries to poor clock management to defensive miscues, but this team has shown it has the talent, coaching and ability to play with the league’s best.

Allen has executed at the highest levels in the postseason. Taking that next step will come from the defense and special teams showing up when it matters most.

What could keep the Bills from making a deep playoff run?

Defense. Too many big plays allowed has been the issue, put on display against their Week 14 opponent, the Los Angeles Rams.

The Bills have allowed the third-most plays of 10 or more yards, including tied for the third-most such passing plays. The Baltimore Ravens‘ and Rams’ offenses showed the ability to take advantage of that.

The Bills’ inability to get off the field on third down (25th) is another trouble area. The concern for the Bills extends to the ground with consistency issues against the run.

One area to watch: Kicker Tyler Bass. He has improved after early-season woes, but his reliability is still a concern.

Who do the Bills have to worry about in this upcoming matchup?

Does the entire offense count? The Lions are a massive overall challenge, but especially for the Bills’ defense going up against Goff, a formidable running back duo in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Winning the battle up front and forcing turnovers will be key after the Bills’ league-best 14-game streak with a takeaway ended last Sunday. “They do a great job, in particular in the play-action game and screen game,” coach Sean McDermott said of the Lions.

Safety Taylor Rapp (neck) and cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) are dealing with injuries, which would be key absences for this matchup.