If a shooter can get benched for going into a prolonged slump, why not an NCAA Tournament prognosticator?
Truth be told, my bosses have a right to wonder if my crystal ball projecting the last 16 March Madness outcomes for the Times-Union has lost its clairvoyant touch.
It’s one thing to not correctly pick the national champion, as I did seven times from 2007-18, but quite another to go 2-for-16 on forecasting the Elite Eight the past two years.
Holy James Naismith, a blindfolded Caitlin Clark could do better than that shooting from halfcourt.
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Now granted, everybody’s bracket got busted last year when the Final Four consisted of a No. 9 seed (Florida Atlantic), two No. 5s (San Diego State and Miami) and No. 4-seeded UConn, the eventual national champ.
My 2023 national champion pick, Kansas, lost in the second round to Arkansas. Seven of my Elite Eight picks (only Texas survived that far) didn’t get there and four failed to get past the first weekend.
The same thing happened in 2022 when my entertainment-purpose-only recommendations were about as reliable as trusting Bernie Madoff with your 401K nest egg.
Again, my only Elite Eight pick that made me look somewhat prescient was taking No. 10-seeded Miami and the Hurricanes came through. Picking No. 2 seed Kentucky and No.3 seed Tennessee backfired, both gone on the first weekend.
Painful as it is to acknowledge such forecasting ineptitude, let it serve as a forewarning for you to treat these 2024 projections with an abundance of caution.
The good news is, I’m way overdue to bust out of this slump and deliver a worthy hoops prophesy, like 2021 when I nailed three of the Final Four teams (Gonzaga, Baylor and Houston). Unfortunately, Baylor ruined Gonzaga’s perfect season and my NCAA champion pick with an 86-70 blowout in the title game.
But just as shooters unable to buy a bucket keep shooting, my crystal ball will not get benched. I guarantee a March Madness prognostication bounce back. Hey, try not to notice my nose getting bigger after typing that.
Gators make for tough call
Few teams in the country have made greater improvement from January to March than Florida, which makes the No. 7-seeded Gators in the South region a tempting pick for a deep tournament run.
A major hurdle for a UF surge came early in its SEC Championship game loss to Auburn when 7-foot-1, 235-pound center Micah Handlogten, going after a rebound, suffered a gruesome-looking broken leg.
His absence diminishes one of the Gators’ biggest advantages, being third in the country in offensive rebounding (14.77 per game). It also means more playing time for a pair of freshmen, 6-11 Alex Condon and 6-9 Thomas Haugh.
Losing Handlogten, fifth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 17.8 percent, is a blow that could be problematic depending on matchups.
Florida also got a tough draw as a No. 7 seed, potentially facing No. 2 Marquette in the second round and No. 3 Kentucky in the Sweet 16.
The selection committee could just have easily given UF a No. 6 seed in the East (BYU’s spot), allowing the Gators to rightfully avoid an SEC opponent until the regional final.
As things stand, the path for Todd Golden’s program is dicey to get to the second week, but I’ve got them springing an upset of Marquette and avoiding Kentucky, which gets ambushed by Texas Tech.
Most college hoops forecasters would have those two outcomes reversed. Still, it’s hard to ignore the fact Florida is sixth in the nation in scoring (85.1 points per game) and ascending under Golden. Kentucky is even better at 89.4 points, but John Calipari’s team has been very Jekyll-and-Hyde.
Plus, there’s certainly going to be an emotional motivation for the Gators to prove they can still win without Handlogten.
My surprise Final Four pick is Texas Tech, mainly because some lower seed nobody envisions is likely going to make a breakthrough and taking a team from the nation’s best league, the Big 12, seems like a reasonable gamble.
I like the Red Raiders to send Florida packing, just as they did in 2018 in Dallas, the same American Airlines Arena venue where those teams could meet again next week.
Which Cinderellas stick around?
It’s impossible to have any fun with an NCAA bracket without forecasting upsets and a little bit of chaos.
History says a double-digit getting to the Sweet 16 or further is a virtual certainty. In the three post-COVID 19 tournaments, eight double-digit seeds have made it to at least the second weekend.
Furthermore, No. 11 reached the Final Four in 2021 and three others over that span (No. 15 St. Peter’s, No. 10 Miami and No. 12 Oregon State) got to the Elite Eight.
Here’s another interesting Cinderella nugget: every one of those double-digit seeds making those surprise runs victimized an SEC opponent along the way. Tennessee was the only one to get ushered out twice, by No. 11 Michigan in the second round (2022) and No. 12 Oregon State in the first round (2021). Florida was taken out by No. 15 Oral Roberts in the second round (2021).
Chaos is one the most appealing factors of March Madness. Expect this year to be no different. Guessing where it’s going to happen is the challenge.
I’m thinking the Midwest and South brackets have the greatest potential for upheaval, and the least disruption being in the East, where I have the top four seeds getting to the Sweet 16.
My boldest call is No. 12 seed McNeese taking out fifth-seeded Gonzaga, then making the Sweet 16 by eliminating 13th-seeded Samford, who upsets Kansas in the first round.
McNeese, coached by Will Wade, who got fired at LSU for prodigious violations of NCAA rules and is serving a show-cause penalty for those infractions.
But Wade has the Cowboys (30-3) playing some inspired ball as Southland Conference champions. McNeese might not play a great schedule, but it leads the nation in scoring margin (18.9 points), the only team above No. 1-ranked UConn.
The Cowboys are also third nationally in field goal defense (38.4 percent), fifth in scoring defense (61.5 points), eighth in three-point shooting percentage (38.8) and 10th in field goal percentage (49.3). It’s the mark of a well-balanced team that is as good a pick as any low seed to make some NCAA tournament noise.
My other unexpected Sweet 16 entry is James Madison, which will have to eliminate No. 5 seed Wisconsin and likely No. 4 Duke to get there. Tall order, for sure.
But JMU has a nation-leading 31 wins, the Sun Belt Player of the Year in wingman Terrence Edwards Jr., with a complementary inside presence in T. J. Bickerstaff. Besides, how fun would it to see Duke exiting the NCAAs at the hands of the Dukes?
Repeat after me, it’s UConn
There are easily a minimum dozen teams with the ingredients to win a national title, but none of them have as complete a team as defending NCAA champion UConn.
The Huskies, led by supremely impactful point guard Tristen Newton, have fewer flaws than anybody in the 68-team field. Good luck to anybody trying to exploit a UConn weakness. There are none, unless you count being 81st in the nation in free throw shooting, a still respectable 74.25 percent.
UConn has the country’s best assist/turnover ratio (+1.88), a key statistic that features 18 tournament teams among the top 20.
To illustrate the scary balance of Danny Hurley’s team, the Huskies are also sixth nationally in field goal percentage (49.6), 11th in field goal defense (39.8), 10th in rebound margin (+8.4), second in scoring margin (+17.1 points) and 15th in scoring defense (64.4 ppg).
It’ll require a near perfect game for anyone to dethrone UConn. The Huskies, who have won 21 of their last 22 games, had enough depth to survive injuries to star freshman Stephon Castle and big man Donovan Clingan.
About the only concern beyond complacency for UConn is being sent to the toughest bracket in the East, where I have all four top seeds (No. 2 Iowa State, No. 3 Illinois and No. 4 Auburn) making the Sweet 16.
Iowa State, the Big 12 tournament champion that swept No. 1 seed Houston in both matchups, looms as potentially UConn’s biggest obstacle on the whole NCAA dance card.
In my view, the toughest bracket to call is the Midwest, featuring top-seeded Purdue and the nation’s best player, 7-foot-4 Zach Edey. The Boilermakers should make it to the regional final, but they also have a history of underachieving in the postseason, bowing out the last three years to double-digit seeds, including a shocking 63-58 loss last year to No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson.
Give me No. 2 Tennessee to come out of the Midwest, which would be a first Final Four appearance for coach Rick Barnes since he took Texas there in 2003.
Out West, for no particular reason, I don’t trust top-seeded North Carolina to earn its first Final Four berth since Roy Williams won his third national title in 2017.
My gut feeling is Michigan State and Tom Izzo will pull off a second-round upset, and if not, maybe Alabama rediscovers a semblance of playing defense and takes out the Tar Heels in the Sweet 16.
All of that doesn’t change the big picture that UConn, which won its six NCAA tournament games last year by an impressive average margin of 20.0 points, has everything it takes to be the first repeat champion since Florida under Billy Donovan in 2006 and ‘07.
Then again, there is one caveat: the last time I picked a team to repeat as national champion was Kansas last year. It lost to Arkansas in the second round.
My NCAA crystal ball has been known to shatter.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: UConn has all the ingredients needed to repeat as March Madness champions in 2024
