BLOOMINGTON — Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti largely avoided stumping for his team amidst all of the discussion surrounding the College Football Playoff leading up to championship weekend.
While conference commissioners and head coaches from across the country spent the week politicking, Cignetti stayed out of the fray until he joined the CBS’ pre-game show ahead of the Big Ten title game on Saturday.
“Here’s my question, right, there’s six one-loss teams in the country, ok?” Cignetti said. “We lost to the second-ranked team on the road, Penn State lost to the fourth-ranked team at home, Texas lost to the fifth-ranked team at home, Boise lost to the seventh-ranked team, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois and SMU lost to an unranked team at the time they played.”
“So how are we not right now seeded for a home game? That’s what I want to know. We have the largest margin of victory in the country.”
More: How Indiana football fans can watch CFP bracket reveal
Cignetti speculated that it was because the school attached to that resume was named Indiana and “not Michigan.”
It’s a valid argument, but the committee has largely settled on its view of the No. 9 Indiana (11-1; 8-1 Big Ten) ahead of the final bracket reveal on Sunday. Barring some unforeseen turn of events, the Hoosiers will be part of the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff and be playing on the road in the first round.
They were projected to play Georgia in the penultimate set of CFP rankings in the No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup, but that game is off the table now with the Bulldogs earning a first-round bye for beating Texas in the SEC title game.
The Longhorns are one of IU’s likeliest potential opponents alongside Notre Dame and Penn State. One of the key debates for the committee on Sunday will be how far to drop the teams that lost their conference championship.
Penn State’s strong performance against Oregon, the only undefeated left in the FBS and top seed in the rankings, will give the Big Ten runner-up a strong argument for keeping the No. 5 seed.
More: Ranking Indiana football’s potential CFP opponents, from most exciting to least
The debate between Notre Dame and Texas is a little trickier.
Notre Dame was a more dominant team during the regular season than PSU and Texas, but it had the worst loss of the three (Northern Illinois) as Cignetti bluntly pointed out and had the worst strength of schedule (No. 58 going into the weekend).
The committee could just slide the Fighting Irish down and avoid penalizing Penn State and Texas for playing in their respective conference championship games, but there really should be a discussion about the Longhorns resume.
Outside of games against Georgia and Texas A&M, they didn’t play a single SEC opponent that had a winning record in the conference and played three of the bottom four teams (Oklahoma, Kentucky and Mississippi State).
It’s the same problem Indiana has faced.
The Hoosiers only had one conference win (Michigan) over team that finished in the top half of the Big Ten and they faced the bottom five teams in the standings. Much of that same criticism applies to Texas, and that’s why our final prediction for the College Football Playoff rankings has IU headed to Austin.
Final College Football Playoff rankings projection
-
Oregon (13-0); highest-ranked conference champion (Big Ten)
-
Georgia (11-2), second highest-ranked conference champion (SEC)
-
Penn State (11-2); at-large, seeded No. 5
-
Notre Dame (11-1); at-large, seeded No. 6
-
Texas (11-2); at-large, seeded No. 7
-
Tennessee (10-2), at-large, seeded No. 8
-
Ohio State (10-2); at-large, seeded No. 9
-
Indiana (11-1); at-large, seeded No. 10
-
Boise State (11-1); third highest-ranked conference champion (Mountain West), seeded No. 3
-
SMU (11-2); at-large, seeded No. 11
-
Alabama (9-3); first team out
-
Miami (10-2); second team out
-
Arizona State (11-2); fourth highest-ranked conference champion (Big 12), seeded No. 4
-
Ole Miss (9-3); third team out
-
South Carolina (9-3); fourth team out
-
Clemson (10-3); fifth-highest-ranked conference champion (ACC), seeded No. 12
Final College Football Playoff bracket projection
-
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Penn State; winner plays No. 4 Arizona State
-
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Notre Dame; winner plays No. 3 Boise State
-
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Texas; winner plays No. 2 Georgia
-
No. 9 Ohio State at No. 8 Tennessee; winner plays No. 1 Oregon
Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.
This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Indiana CFP final bracket prediction: Where Hoosiers may land in first round
