There’s something uniquely valuable about the power of groupthink. No one person can keep track of everything happening in the NHL, especially with the 495 games that have already been played through Monday’s action. That’s why looking at trends from the collective — the hive mind of fantasy managers — is often helpful.
In the ESPN fantasy game, the rostership trend can be a telling indicator, highlighting players poised to make a jump or those likely on the decline. It can also serve as a reminder of which players are worth dropping or adding from the waiver wire.
However, the ESPN interface scratches only the surface, offering limited data. That’s why I’ve been saving weekly rostership data since the start of the season. Now, I thought it would be interesting to take a step back and reflect on some of the bigger shifts in the fantasy landscape that have emerged so far.
Let’s dive into these changes and see what we all thought, and what it might mean for the remainder of the campaign.
Jump ahead: Goalies | Power Play | Droppables
Most added
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Connor McMichael, C, Washington Capitals (currently 74.6%, up 73.3% since start of season)
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Kevin Lankinen, G, Vancouver Canucks (currently 69.7%, up 69.3% )
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Brandt Clarke, D, Los Angeles Kings (currently 71.4%, up 69.0%)
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Ivan Barbashev, LW, Vegas Golden Knights (currently 78.4%, up 68.5%)
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Anthony Stolarz, G, Toronto Maple Leafs (currently 69.8%, up 62.3%)
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Anthony Cirelli, C, Tampa Bay Lightning (currently 69.8%, up 57.3%)
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Tom Wilson, RW, Washington Capitals (currently 78.4%, up 56.9%)
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Mikael Granlund, LW, San Jose Sharks (currently 84.6%, up 56.5%)
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Jake Walman, D, San Jose Sharks (currently 65.1%, up 56.4%)
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Josh Norris, C, Ottawa Senators (currently 63.2%, up 56.4%)
Not many surprises in this list of the top 10 most-added players since the preseason. McMichael is a revelation with the upstart Capitals, but there was no reason to be heavy on them before the campaign started. They’ve earned the attention since then though, as Wilson make this list, too.
Lankinen wasn’t even on an NHL roster until the Canucks signed him late, when it became clear Thatcher Demko wouldn’t be healthy to start the season. Unfortunately, Lankinen’s run of increased value in the crease will be closing as Demko ramps up his performance.
Clarke is another one whose time in the limelight might be fading. If Drew Doughty comes back in good form next month, he’ll reclaim some of the key power-play minutes from Clarke – whose future remains bright.
But, as you’ll see for most of this list, it’s mostly players that went from zero rostership to their current mark. What about looking at the most gains since just the start of November?
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Connor McMichael, C, Washington Capitals (currently 74.6%, up 64.0% since start of November)
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Jake Walman, D, San Jose Sharks (currently 65.1%, up 53.2%)
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Joey Daccord, G, Seattle Kraken (currently 65.1%, up 48.4%)
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Alex Vlasic, D, Chicago Blackhawks (currently 48.2%, up 44.0%)
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Will Cuylle, LW, New York Rangers (currently 47.9%, up 41.8%)
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Mason Marchment, LW, Dallas Stars (currently 63.8%, up 41.0%)
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Anthony Cirelli, C, Tampa Bay Lightning (currently 69.8%, up 40.4%)
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Kent Johnson, C, Columbus Blue Jackets (currently 43.0%, up 39.0%)
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Brandt Clarke, D, Los Angeles Kings (currently 71.4%, up 38.7%)
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Jake DeBrusk, RW, Vancouver Canucks (currently 66.9%, up 36.5%)
McMichael, Walman, Cirelli and Clarke are repeats, but we get fresh names elsewhere, as these are the players that were a little slower to show their hand.
Daccord took over an increasing share of the Kraken crease and sits sixth among all goaltenders in fantasy points. Vlasic got some help with an increased role while Seth Jones was injured, but it’s still a feat for him to currently rank 19th among defenders in fantasy points.
The thing is: With the exception of a couple of names, most of these players are still available in at least a third of leagues. There is no excuse for not trading in some of your underperforming draft picks for some of the hive mind’s choices here.
But who should you drop? What do we all think?
I’ll use the November start for this again, as the most-dropped list from the preseason is dominated by injuries, like Doughty and Evander Kane.
Most dropped
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Frederik Andersen, G, Carolina Hurricanes (currently 53.5%, down 33.6% since start of November)
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Jordan Eberle, RW, Seattle Kraken (currently 9.6%, down 28.4%)
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Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Chicago Blackhawks (currently 29.4%, down 27.9%)
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Casey Mittelstadt, C, Colorado Avalanche (currently 35.6%, down 27.8%)
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K’Andre Miller, D, New York Rangers (currently 31.3%, down 23.3%)
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Patrick Kane, RW, Detroit Red Wings (currently 50.1%, down 22.9%)
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Paul Cotter, C, New Jersey Devils (currently 15.9%, down 22.2%)
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Elias Lindholm, RW, Boston Bruins (currently 58.0%, down 22.2%)
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Alexandar Georgiev, G, San Jose Sharks (currently 55.9%, down 22.2%)
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Ryan O’Reilly, C, Nashville Predators (currently 50.9%, down 21.8%)
I don’t think I’d quibble with letting any of these players go. We collectively made a good call here.
Andersen will probably have late-season value, but you are justified in not sitting on him until then.
As for the rest, it’s good riddance. It is painful to drop Kane, Lindholm and O’Reilly, in particular, as hopes were so high before the season.
If you find yourself with any of these players on your roster, consider trusting your fellow fantasy managers and making the swap for some of the most-added players.
Resources: Goalie depth chart | Daily lines | Projections | Play for free | Player rater | Most added/dropped | Mock draft lobby | How to watch on ESPN+
Goalie notes
Boston Bruins in 32 games (three last week):
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Jeremy Swayman (crease share season/week: 67.1%/67.5%, fantasy points season/week: 16.8/-4.8, 17.8% available)
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Joonas Korpisalo (crease share season/week: 32.9%/32.5%, fantasy points season/week: 25.8/-4.8, 95.3% available)
The top-ranked Bruins goaltender in fantasy points sits 30th among all goaltenders … and it’s Korpisalo, not Swayman. But I don’t think it’s time to get out of the Swayman business yet. The wins are still there. It’s just the negative landmine games erasing all the positive progress. Hang in there.
Carolina Hurricanes in 30 games (three last week):
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Pyotr Kochetkov (crease share season/week: 59.3%/66.1%, fantasy points season/week: 34.2/4.0, 58.4% available)
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Spencer Martin (crease share season/week: 23.3%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -8.4/DNP, 99.8% available)
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Frederik Andersen (crease share season/week: 13.6%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 19.0/DNP, 46.5% available)
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Dustin Tokarski (crease share season/week: 3.4%/33.9%, fantasy points season/week: 7.4/7.4, 99.7% available)
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Yaniv Perets (crease share season/week: 0.5%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -0.8/DNP, 100.0% available)
The Canes latest addition, Tokarski showed this crease is a good place to be for fantasy. Andersen is still expected out until almost March, so Tokarski might be around for a while. It’s doubtful he eats into any more than a 35-65 share with Kochetkov though.
Calgary Flames in 31 games (three last week):
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Dan Vladar (crease share season/week: 51.8%/66.8%, fantasy points season/week: 11.0/-11.0, 96.9% available)
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Dustin Wolf (crease share season/week: 48.2%/33.2%, fantasy points season/week: 49.6/13.4, 60.8% available)
Wolf has Montembeault syndrome, but it’s not as bad. He’s earned 26.2 of his fantasy points from his two enormous shutouts, while collecting 23.4 fantasy points across his other 15 appearances – including -12.6 fantasy points in the three games prior to Saturday’s show against the Panthers.
Colorado Avalanche in seven games (four last week):
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Mackenzie Blackwood (crease share season/week: 100.0%/50.3%, fantasy points season/week: 7.8/7.8, 66.2% available)
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Scott Wedgewood (crease share season/week: 55.3%/49.7%, fantasy points season/week: 21.2/2.8, 90.6% available)
This shows 100 percent crease share for Blackwood, as he’s played every minute for the Avs since making his first appearance for them. That’s how these calculations work, as manually maintaining date of acquisition makes for complicated calculations. The early returns on the BlackWedgeWood tandem are a net positive. Blackwood has stopped 55 of 59 shots (.937 save percentage), while Wedgewood has stopped 121 of 130 (.931 save percentage).
Minnesota Wild in 31 games (five last week):
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Filip Gustavsson (crease share season/week: 70.1%/43.0%, fantasy points season/week: 83.2/-5.6, 4.3% available)
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Marc-Andre Fleury (crease share season/week: 26.8%/33.1%, fantasy points season/week: 25.0/3.6, 49.0% available)
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Jesper Wallstedt (crease share season/week: 3.1%/23.9%, fantasy points season/week: -1.2/-1.2, 99.4% available)
Gustavsson still has a day-to-day tag and we probably won’t get an update until Wednesday. Wallstedt looked the part in keeping the Wild in it against the Golden Knights on Sunday. If you’re in a keeper league, now could be a good time to target him, making it seem like his start caught your attention. The thing is, while Gustavsson’s return to form has delayed Wallstedt’s timeline to becoming a full-time starter, talent finds a way. If you are playing the long-game, you still want Wallstedt in your corner.
Power-play notes
Elias Lindholm, RW, Boston Bruins (available in 42.0%): Are the Bruins getting close to a breakthrough on the advantage? Last week’s column looked closely at shot-attempt rates by power-play units and highlighted the Bruins for not making the threshold of 4.00 shot attempts per two minutes of PP time. During the past three games, they upped their rate to 6.21 and have two goals to show for it.
Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders (available in 43.0%): I’m not entirely sure what coach Patrick Roy’s plan for the power play is, but here is the unit Barzal rolled with in his return from injury: Anders Lee, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Barzal, Simon Holmstrom and Dennis Cholowski. And to be clear, they were the top unit; they played 2:02 and managed a single shot on net together.
Kent Johnson, C, Columbus Blue Jackets (available in 57.0%): He’s looking like the real deal here, so that 57 percent availability stands out like a sore thumb. It’s been 17 games now for Johnson this season and he’s maintained 2.2 fantasy points per game, thanks in large part to the advantage.
Jamie Drysdale, D, Philadelphia Flyers (available in 97.2%): Back and playing the big minutes on the blue line for the advantage, Drysdale is worth having on rosters. He is clearly the Flyers No. 1 choice for quarterback when healthy, which, over the long term, will bring in enough fantasy stats.
Ross Colton, LW, Colorado Avalanche (available in 42.6%): The Avs are giving Colton looks on the top unit again, but the results have been lackluster. They were admittedly bad matchups for power plays against the Canucks and Predators, but 2.38 shot attempts per two minutes across 5:02 is not good foreshadowing for the unit.
Matthew Knies, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs (available in 62.3%): It seems the five-forward experiment is over for now, with Knies demoted from the top unit. Morgan Rielly was back as the quarterback for the Leafs past two games – and he helped them to score a goal in each.
Frank Nazar, C, Chicago Blackhawks (available in 99.4%): An offensive prospect called up this past week from the AHL, the Hawks are putting Nazar in a position to succeed with top power-play time. He’s put in 3:44 with the top unit in his two games.
Justin Faulk, D, St. Louis Blues (33.8%): With just four power-play points across 30 games played, only the Dallas Stars and Philadelphia Flyers have fewer from their blue-line leader than Faulk. One has to ruminate on the possibility that the recently acquired Cam Fowler — who had some power-play chops in his heyday — gets a chance.
Droppables
Chris Kreider, LW, New York Rangers (87.3%): Actually, don’t drop Kreider. If this Rangers tailspin and messy trade-rumor business continues, Kreider could end up in a different jersey. He’s still firing lots of offense and could be rejuvenated with a change of scenery. I would have said it was impossible to happen two weeks ago, but the Rangers slump and dealing of captain Jacob Trouba puts everything on the table here. The 1.5 fantasy points per game is painful though, so tuck him on your bench if you can.
Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh Penguins (88.3%): The 1.7 fantasy points per game you see next to Malkin’s name on the ESPN interface is very misleading. It is propped up to fantasy-relevant range by his first five games of the season. If you only consider Malkin’s stats in the 27 games since Oct. 16, he’s averaged 1.3 fantasy points per game. Considering the Penguins have gone as far as taking him off the top power-play unit of late, he, at the very least, needs a break from your starting roster. Dropping him is for shallow leagues and the boldest of us.
Brayden McNabb, D, Vegas Golden Knights (51.4%): Whatever the reason, McNabb isn’t touching as many pucks that end up in the net and it’s taken him from fantasy friendly to fantasy anchor. Without the supplemental assists in his profile, the blocked shots and hits aren’t enough to bring him over the threshold to roster-worthy.
