When the legal tampering period for NFL free agency opened on Monday, it was a mad dash to the quarterbacks. When the dust settled, it was the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers who made the biggest splashes with QB signings, bringing in Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson, respectively.
Time will tell whether or not the aging QBs can bring the Lombardi Trophy home to their new franchises – but the betting markets have already spoken on the odds to win next year’s Super Bowl and they’re sending opposite messages for each move.
Let’s start with the Falcons, whose promising but disappointing 2023 campaign, fueled by a much-maligned performance from Desmond Ridder, led many pundits to give Atlanta the coveted “a quarterback away” moniker. New head coach Raheem Morris and company wasted no time rectifying the situation, signing Cousins to a reported four-year, $180 million contract.
Sportsbooks across the country seem to agree that Atlanta just needed a competent player under center: The Falcons’ odds to win the Super Bowl saw the largest line drop across every major sportsbook, including ESPN Bet, where the team fell from 50-1 to 30-1 to win it all. Atlanta shifted from 18-1 to 12-1 to win the NFC, and are now the clear favorites to win the NFC South at -110.
Cousins’ arrival also affected Offensive Player of the Year odds, with his new running back Bijan Robinson moving from 40-1 to 25-1, and new wide receiver Drake London moving from 150-1 to 75-1 to win the honor.
However, the enthusiasm from the sportsbooks (and possibly sharp bettors) is not shared by the betting public. ESPN Bet reports that just 4% of Super Bowl future tickets written since Monday have been on Atlanta — ninth in the NFL.
Fanatics Sportsbook reports that 5.0% of the tickets (7th) and 2.1% of the handle (9th) since Monday have been with Atlanta, while DraftKings reports 3% of tickets (11th) and 2% of handle (12th) for the same time period. BetMGM has just 1.4% of its tickets and 1.5% of its handle on Atlanta since it opened 2025 Super Bowl futures.
Despite the low action, these books all instituted similar drops in the Falcons’ odds to win it all.
Meanwhile, over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers decided to take a low-cost chance on Wilson, signing him to a one-year deal at the veteran minimum of $1.2 million.
Sportsbooks were much less impressed with this move. ESPN Bet has not budged from its line of 75-1 for the Black and Gold to win the Super Bowl, and made only marginal moves in the conference and division markets.
Other sportsbooks moved the Steelers’ Super Bowl slightly and only after the team signed linebacker Patrick Queen away from the Baltimore Ravens: Fanatics came down from 80-1 to 75-1, DraftKings from 75-1 to 65-1, and BetMGM from 80-1 to 66-1, which is the largest move of any book listed.
This was despite the betting public rushing to the window to bet Steelers’ futures following the Wilson news. Since Monday, BetMGM and Fanatics both report that Pittsburgh has attracted the most money of any team in the league, bringing in 15.1% and 22.1% of the handle, respectively. The Steelers have the second-most tickets at BetMGM (11.2%), the third-most at DraftKings (9%) and Fanatics (10.7%), and the fourth-most at ESPN Bet (10%).
“The biggest question mark there is Russell Wilson,” DraftKings director of race & sportsbook operations Johnny Avello told ESPN. “Is he an upgrade from what they already had? I guess he might be. We’ve seen some money come in, but we’re just holding the number at [65-1].”
Recent history could be playing a significant role for bookmakers. Despite his age and a recent season-ending injury, Cousins has played at a higher caliber than Wilson in recent years, with the latter’s stint in Denver going down as such a disaster that his former team is footing most of the contract for his new team.
It’s certainly worth noting that Wilson is a Super Bowl-winning QB, whereas Cousins has won just a single playoff game, but perhaps an even bigger factor in the line movement is the divisions in which these teams play.
“I think the big news was probably Atlanta getting a quality quarterback that actually hasn’t won anything,” said Avello. “But he is a much-needed quarterback for that team, so it certainly helps them out in a division… that can be had easily if you could win 10 games or so.”
On the contrary, the AFC North is one of the toughest divisions in the NFL. The Ravens, Browns and, yes, Steelers, all made the playoffs last season, and the Bengals just missed a berth despite a season-ending injury to superstar Joe Burrow. Pittsburgh’s 11-1 odds to take the AFC North title are the bottom of the division, and imply it will be a much difficult road for them to ultimately take home the Lombardi.
With free agency largely settled, teams and bettors will turn their attention to the NFL Draft, where the QB frenzy affected odds as well: Cousins’ former team, the Minnesota Vikings, are now the favorites to draft Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy (EVEN), who had previously been favored to go to the New York Giants.
