NORMAN — OU women’s basketball is back in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive season.
The Sooners haven’t been much of an upset victim during their tournament history, not losing to a team seeded more than one seed line behind them in the first two rounds of the tournament.
But No. 5 seeded OU’s matchup with No. 12 seed Florida Gulf Coast in the first round of the tournament is far from a cakewalk for the Sooners.
Here’s two reasons why OU could be upset in the NCAA Tournament, two reasons they won’t be, and a prediction:
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FGCU has upset history
Since 2018, six No. 12 seeds have pulled off first-round wins over No. 5 seeds.
Three times, including each of the last two seasons, that team pulling off the upset was Florida Gulf Coast.
The Eagles knocked off Washington State 74-63 in the first round last season, Virginia Tech 84-81 in 2022, and Missouri 80-70 in 2018.
Though none of the starters in last year’s upset remain, four players who appeared in that win over Washington State are on the roster, including Kierra Adams, who scored 12 in that upset.
FGCU isn’t going to be intimidated by the Sooners, not only because of their recent tournament history but also because of their schedule this season, which featured matchups with eventual No. 1 seeds Southern California and Iowa as well as games against Duke, Kentucky and North Carolina.
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FGCU could make life difficult on Oklahoma’s offense
It’s easy to look at Florida Gulf Coast’s offense and their prolific use of the 3-pointer as a reason why they could pull off the upset — and that’s true, the 3-pointer can be an equalizer when it comes tournament time — but it’s the Eagles’ defense that really gives them a chance to win this one.
FGCU is allowing just 54.5 points per game and has allowed 70 or more just twice — none since Dec. 10.
During their current 22-game winning streak, the Eagles are allowing just 51.1 points per game.
OU is averaging 76.8 points per game, in the top 25 nationally.
One area of offensive concern recently is with co-Big 12 Player of the Year Skylar Vann.
Vann is averaging 14.7 points per game and shooting 45.6% from the field this season but is averaging just 8.5 points and shooting 33.3% over the last four games.
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Payton Verhulst surging
When Payton Verhulst transferred to OU from Louisville last season, big things were expected.
The former five-star prospect looked like the perfect fit for Jennie Baranczyk’s high-flying offense.
Verhulst’s season was hot and cold early, averaging 12 points and shooting 39.9% — 33.6% from beyond the arc — in her first 23 games.
But over the last nine games, Verhulst has come on strong, averaging 16.8 points and shooting 43.4%, including 40.9% from beyond the arc — on 7.3 attempted 3-pointers per game, a jump from the 4.7 3-point tries before that.
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Sooners have size advantage
In the Big 12 Tournament, especially in the loss to Iowa State, the Sooners struggled on the interior.
Over the last three seasons under Jennie Baranczyk, usually when OU gets beat it’s by a team that can control the game physically near the bucket.
The Sooners beefs up their interior this season, but FGCU also doesn’t match up great physically on the inside, with only one player taller than 6-foot-1.
For OU, Skylar Vann plays bigger than she is at 5-foot-11, 6-foot freshman Sahara Williams can defend inside and outside and can take advantage of mismatches offensively, and 6-foot-4 Kiersten Johnson and 6-foot-3 Beatrice Culliton offer some interior depth off the bench.
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Prediction: Sooners advance to second round
While Florida Gulf Coast is a dangerous first-round matchup, there’s plenty of reason to be optimistic about the Sooners’ chances of avoiding an upset right off the bat.
But the potential second-round matchup with No. 4 seed Indiana is a bit of a different story.
The Hoosiers’ interior of 6-foot-3 forwards MacKenzie Holmes and Yarden Garzon could make it extremely difficult for the Sooners to make it out of the first weekend.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Oklahoma women upset in 2024 March Madness predictions? Here’s when
