Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets on Illinois vs Purdue, Alabama at Florida, plus UNC hosting Notre Dame.
Purdue at Illinois (-1.5): O/U 163.5
Illinois is 9-3 since Terrence Shannon returned to the lineup, ranking as the second-best offense in the country with nearly 90 points per game.
The Illini’s defense ranks 202nd in that span, but Purdue is barely a top 100 defensive team in that same span. The two edges Illinois has going for them is they rank No. 1 in three-point defensive rate during that 12-game span and they have size to compete on the boards.
Purdue on the road is 6-3 this season and owns a bottom 10 rank when it comes to forcing turnovers (11.3%) and comes in at 209th for three-point defense (35.5%).
If Illinois can double-team Zach Edey enough on defense and rotate like Northwestern and Nebraska were able to, then Illinois can win.
I played Illinois on the ML at -125 odds and would opt to play this out to -3 if you play spreads.
Pick: Illinois ML (1u)
Alabama at Florida (-1.5): O/U 176.5
The first meeting between these two teams was one of the better games of the year. Alabama won at home, 98-93 in OT, after trailing 72-62 with 8:40 remaining (Alabama had a 24% win expectancy).
The Tide rallied back and scored 61 combined second-half and OT points to beat the Gators. Since February 10, Florida is No. 19 in Barttorvik and Alabama is No. 25 with the 226th-ranked defense.
Florida ranks 14th and 62nd in offensive and defensive efficiency during that span. The Tide are not forcing tunovers, defensive rebounding at the 302nd-best rate, and allowing 56.2% from two-point range (322nd).
Florida is coming off a road loss, which sets them up well for a home revenge spot on Senior Night (two seniors). I have no trust in Alabama’s defense and while the Tide don’t lose two straight games often, the Tide also don’t win two consecutive road games often either.
I grabbed the Gators’ ML at -125 odds and would go out to -3 if you opt for the spread. This was +1.5 yesterday.
Pick: Florida ML (1.5u)
Notre Dame at North Carolina (-15.5): O/U 138.5
Both Notre Dame and North Carolina have won five of the last six games and the Irish post the 30th-best defense in that span, while UNC is 28th.
This is the first meeting of the season between the two squads. Historically, Notre Dame has scored 69 or fewer points in five straight trips to Chapel Hill with 65 or less in the past three.
The Irish have scored 28, 31, and 30 first half points in the past three trips and I expect a lower number here. Notre Dame is playing at the 330th-ranked tempo in the country during this 5-1 stretch with the 135th-ranked offense.
Despite winning lately, Notre Dame faces a tough test at North Carolina on Senior Night. UNC has RJ Davis, Armando Bacot, and Cormac Ryan walking tonight, so I expect the Tar Heels to come out aggressive.
I played Notre Dame’s First Half Team Total Under 28.5 at -112 odds and would go down to 27.5 for 1 unit. The Irish have scored 31 or less first half points in four of the past five games versus unimpressive defenses in the ACC.
Pick: Notre Dame 1H Team Total Under 28.5 (1.5u)
Tulane at South Florida (-7.5): O/U 156.5
This is the first meeting of the season between Tulane and South Florida, but the story of two teams trending in different directions. USF has won 14 straight games, the nation’s longest winning streak, while Tulane lost six consecutive.
Tulane is 2-7 on the road this season with the 360th and 38th-ranked offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. The Green Wave is the worst rebounding team in the conference and is shooting the two at 48.1% (12 of 14) and ranks 11th in offensive efficiency.
This is the final home game for USF and the Bulls are locked in as the regular-season conference champs. The Bulls have the best defense in the conference and I expect it to be on display.
I played Tulane’s First Half Team Total Under 35.5 at -118 odds and would go down to 34.5. The last three visitors to USF stayed Under this number.
Pick: Tulane 1H Team Total Under 34.5 (1u)
Season Record: 60-50 (54.5%) +4.68 units
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