Following the Mets‘ signing of Juan Soto to the biggest deal in sports history, the expectation was that a dam had broken. Surely, the Winter Meetings would be crazy and an avalanche of signings would happen. But the meetings were largely a dud, as has been the case for the last few years.
And while there have been some big moves since Soto signed, including the Yankees inking Max Fried and trading for Devin Williams, and the Red Sox swinging a deal for Garrett Crochet, things have remained mostly stagnant when it comes to major offseason moves.
That includes Pete Alonso, whose market — at least regarding leaks about interested teams — has been quiet.
Along with Alonso, there are a whole bunch of big free agents still out there, including Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Christian Walker, Teoscar Hernandez, Roki Sasaki (who won’t sign until January), Sean Manaea, Walker Buehler, Carlos Estevez, and Tanner Scott. There are also lots of trade candidates available for the taking, such as Cody Bellinger, Dylan Cease, Luis Castillo, and Jesus Luzardo.
So something will have to give at some point, perhaps with a flurry of moves happening over the next week or so before things slow down (and maybe shut down entirely) for the holidays.
For the Mets, there is still a ton to do.
They need to add at least one (and ideally two) legitimate starting pitchers to a rotation that is full of question marks. And one of those pitchers should have the ability to pitch near the top of the rotation.
They have to bolster a bullpen that right now has three guarantees and not a whole lot else.
They must decide if they’re trading Starling Marte and/or Jeff McNeil.
And they need to find a first baseman or — if first base isn’t addressed — a third baseman, in which case Mark Vientos can shift to first.
Because as much as the Soto addition transforms the Mets’ lineup, they are still one big hitter short. And when you survey the market, take into account how David Stearns operates, and use common sense to project what’s going to happen with Alonso, a return to Queens feels like the obvious outcome.
First, let’s look at it from the Mets’ perspective…
Regardless of how the Soto situation played out, it was close to impossible to envision them signing Fried or Burnes. Megadeals for pitchers on the wrong end of 30 almost never work out. So there was very likely never any salary earmarked for a deal like that. The same can be said for a big money reliever like Scott or Estevez. The Mets already have one of those with Edwin Diaz.
So, with the Mets not expected to break the bank for a “big” starting pitcher (the guess here is that they sign someone like Buehler, re-sign Manaea, and/or trade for someone like Castillo or Cease) or “big” reliever, there is only one large money free agency or trade move that makes sense: a first baseman or third baseman.
That could be Bellinger, but the Mets haven’t been connected to him — and the Yanks have been working on a deal. It could be Walker, but he’s entering his age-34 season and could get a contract that takes him to 36 or 37.
Bregman makes sense if the deal is right (think five or six years), but his market will seemingly go beyond that, since he’s so far left the Astros’ reported six-year, roughly $156 million offer on the table.
So … Alonso?
As things currently stand, Vientos is Soto’s main lineup protection. And while Vientos had a breakout 2024 and has otherworldly power, the Mets can’t bank on him being an 800+ OPS player. Maybe he is, and there’s no reason to think he won’t continue to be good. But as is noted above, the Mets are short one big bat in the lineup.
Now the emotional part.
Alonso is a homegrown Met, is beloved by a large swath of the fan base, and is poised to break the Mets’ franchise home run record in 2025 if he re-signs. And if Alonso — who has spoken repeatedly about his love for the city and the fans — is back, he will join Brandon Nimmo as a potential career Met.
The Mets reportedly offered Alonso a seven-year, $158 million extension during the 2023 season. That would’ve bought out his final arbitration year (2024) and been worth $22.5 million annually through 2030.
So perhaps there is common ground to be found here, if the Mets (under the same ownership but different head of baseball operations) offer Alonso something like $125 million for five years or $150 million for six years.
Stearns and Steve Cohen have made it clear that they want Alonso back. And while you can dismiss some of that as front-office-speak if you want to take a cynical view, there’s no reason for the Mets to be this open about their desire to retain Alonso if that desire isn’t there. If they were saying all of this to be nice, they could be vague. But they haven’t been.
Now, let’s examine this from Alonso’s perspective…
Alonso and his agent Scott Boras want to land an enormous deal, as is their right. But it’s really hard to envision a scenario where Alonso’s market gets out of control — not with him entering his age-30 season, coming off two relatively down years, and not being a plus defender.
Freddie Freeman, a much better all-around hitter than Alonso and a Gold Glove first baseman, got a six-year, $162 million deal from the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season.
Matt Olson, who is also a better all-around hitter than Alonso and a Gold Glove first baseman, inked an eight-year, $168 million extension with the Braves before his age-28 season.
So it’s fair to believe that Alonso could top out at six years and a salary commitment right around or a bit below what Freeman and Olson received. But that would likely take a hot market. And the available first basemen beyond Alonso include Bellinger via trade and Walker via free agency, as well as short-term free agent options Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana — meaning the supply could outweigh the demand.
Some have connected the Yanks to Alonso, but he makes very little sense in a lineup that already includes two right-handed power hitters over 30 who strike out at a relatively high clip (Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton).
Maybe the Giants will have interest if they don’t sign Burnes, or the Mariners if they free up some money. Perhaps a team like the Angels offers something crazy. But if not, how long can Alonso wait? And what does he want?
It stands to reason that he would want to continue to be a part of the Mets, especially when you consider what it is they’re building.
The simplest way to put this is that Alonso seems as right for the Mets as the Mets do for Alonso. And if you strip away all the outside noise, the Mets-Alonso match becomes too clear to ignore. It makes too much sense for it to not happen. But in order for this to come to fruition, one side will have to blink sooner rather than later.
