We’re gonna take last week and throw it in the trash. We’re gonna act like it never happened.
Agreed?
Here’s how I’m wagering on Week 11, along with my Bear Bytes.
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Last Week: 0-4
Season: 24-22
This game is near the tail end of a tough stretch for the Vols — Alabama, at South Carolina, Kentucky, at A&M and then hosting LSU next week. There could be a bit of an emotional letup after the huge win over Kentucky and knowing that old friend Lane Kiffin is coming to town next week. I’m still trying to figure out how A&M couldn’t score a TD last week, and how the Aggies allowed LaNorris Sellers to get out on a long run. I know Marcel Reed has been brutal vs. ranked teams and the Tennessee defensive front is real. It’s been a dismal year for A&M, but this could be a spot where the Aggies are able to salvage a little something out of the season.
Arkansas has been much more competitive than I thought it would be. It was in the game with Tennessee and could have won it, as well as last week at Auburn. If Sellers’ ankle isn’t near 100 percent, or if the Gamecocks are looking ahead to hosting No. 1 Georgia next week, this could get a little tricky for South Carolina.
Fallica’s Pick: Arkansas +7.5
This is a game I’ll probably hate myself for betting, but I think Michigan State’s win over Michigan last week was more about Michigan being awful than the Spartans making some monumental leap. I hate that Demond Williams is back at QB for Washington because the Huskies played their best game on the road at Purdue with him sidelined. Still, I’ll back the UW defense here.
Fallica’s Pick: Washington -3.5
Underdogs To Play On ML
Last Week: 0-4, -4
Season: 10-21, -5.79
Texas A&M +115
Florida +135
Arkansas +230
Maryland +275
Arizona State +130
Kansas +120
Bear Bytes
A top-two team has lost five straight weeks. Utah is a slight favorite at Arizona and Georgia could be in a bit of a letdown spot this week at home vs. Missouri. Will the streak hit six?
No. 18 USC @ No. 9 INDIANA
Lincoln Riley is 1-7 on the road vs. ranked teams as USC head coach and 1-3 on the road vs. top-10 teams as a head coach. The last time USC played a road game, it scored seven points and ran for 39 yards outside of sack yardage in a loss at Wisconsin.
NORTHWESTERN @ No. 20 OHIO STATE
Ohio State has lost consecutive games to unranked teams for the first time since 1992. It will try to avoid making it three in a row this week vs. Northwestern. Ohio State is 4-5 in its last nine games vs. P4 opponents.
No. 8 TENNESSEE @ TEXAS A&M
In his last six games vs. AP-ranked opponents, Marcel Reed has thrown one TD with nine INTs, while being sacked 21 times. The Aggies have lost all six games and have been held to single digits in four of the games. He’s thrown for 187.7 yards per game on 5.6 yards per attempt in those games.
No. 3 ALABAMA @ VANDERBILT
Will it be déjà vu all over again for the Tide? In 2024, No. 1 Alabama lost 40-35 at unranked Vanderbilt the week after beating No. 2 Georgia. Saturday, No. 7 Alabama is a 17.5-point favorite at unranked Vandy the week after beating No. 15 LSU in Baton Rouge.
No. 6 TEXAS @ No. 21 LSU
As an underdog at Texas, Steve Sarkisian is 2-8 (1-7 away from home).
No. 2 UTAH @ No. 22 ARIZONA
Utah is the first top-two team to be favored by less than a field against a team outside the top 20 since 2014, when No. 2 Florida State was a 2.5-point favorite at unranked Miami and won 30-26.
MICHIGAN @ No. 16 OREGON
Oregon has been a double-digit favorite four times this year vs. an FBS opponent. The Ducks have lost outright in three of those games and trailed in the fourth quarter of the game they won (Boise State).
GEORGIA TECH @ CLEMSON
Dating back to 2024, Clemson has failed to cover nine of its last 11 games as a double-digit favorite.
BAYLOR @ No. 10 BYU
Kalani Sitake has been a home favorite of at least seven points 34 times. BYU has never lost a game outright under Sitake when favored at home by at least seven points.
