NIL. Transfer Portal. Nine-game conference schedules.
These are among the primary forces driving parity across college football. Traditional powerhouses can no longer count on stockpiling talent behind established starters, as more players find opportunities elsewhere to get on the field right away. When talent is equated, outcomes often come down to scheme and execution.
But there’s another development worth noting: There has never been more scrutiny on college football coaches and the desire to win now.
The Heat Is On
Four Power Four coaches were fired this past week — Maryland head coach Mike Locksley, NC State head coach Dave Doeren, Baylor head coach Dave Aranda and first-year Oregon offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer — underscoring the pressure coaches endure early in the season and how crucial it is to get off to a fast start.
The significant investments donors make in college football programs have only heightened the urgency to see a return. I call it the “Cignetti effect.” When a downtrodden program like Indiana can go from the worst in college football, and then hit the jackpot with Cignetti, winning a national championship two years later, that’s a problem for the rest of the sport.
Suddenly, every fan base is asking the same question: Why not us?
Oregon offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer was fired following the Ducks’ third loss of the season. (Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)
Alumni and donors pour millions into their programs expecting to see them rise to prominence. When results don’t come quickly, someone has to take the blame.
Sometimes, the criticism is justified. Other times, there needs to be more patience.
When a coaching change is made, it can be challenging for a quarterback to adapt to a new offense, which can be akin to learning a new language. A new playcaller might come in with a different style and personality. It takes time to get used to that, and often times, there is a feeling-out period during a game.
The questions running through a signal-caller’s mind are: How aggressive will the new playcaller be? Will they trust me after I make a mistake?
There’s nothing worse than a playcaller who calls a downfield pass, and then puts you in handcuffs for the rest of the game if there’s a bad result.
When it came to Mehringer’s case, his offense simply struggled to meet the expectations of Oregon fans, who had national championship aspirations after quarterback Dante Moore announced he would return for his final season. Moore entered the season with +800 odds to win the Heisman Trophy, the fourth-best odds in the country.
A close call against Boise State in the opener — the Broncos are now 6-1 and ranked No. 20 in the AP Top 25 — sparked frustration that began to fester in the coming weeks.
Then came a road loss to Oklahoma State, which is now 5-2 and ranked No. 24 in the AP Poll. The criticism grew louder. A dominant win over Portland State did little to quiet the concerns, but the season appeared to be back on track the following week when backup quarterback Dylan Raiola replaced an injured Moore against USC and led the Ducks to victory.
Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola led the Ducks to a 41-27 win over USC before being benched the following week against UCLA. (Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)
Raiola looked poised, confident, and up for the challenge of leading Oregon for the foreseeable future. That optimism lasted just one week. After a slow start against UCLA, Raiola was benched in a loss. Brock Thomas got the start against Nebraska the following week, only to struggle early and get benched himself. Raiola returned and saved the day.
There would be no hero for Oregon this past week. The Ducks were without several receivers following an off-field incident and, for the third straight week, failed to score more than 17 points.
Only two Power Four programs have started three different quarterbacks in their first six games this season: Oregon and Syracuse. It’s extremely difficult to find an offensive rhythm when you’re rotating quarterbacks with different skill sets and trying to establish consistent execution. Injuries and off-field issues affecting the skill players around them only make matters more challenging.
Then comes the desperation. Calling plays like this is a sign you’re grabbing for anything you believe will give you a chance to be successful.
Some will ask, “was it the Xs and Os that led to Mehringer’s firing?” No. Mehringer was more a victim of circumstances than anything he did scheme-wise.
In the end, Mehringer was relieved of his duties before completing his first season as offensive coordinator. The move also marked the end of a relationship with a coach who had been on Dan Lanning’s staff since 2022.
The news was followed by Baylor’s decision to dismiss Aranda, whose team is 4-3 this season. He finished his tenure with a .500 overall record. On Saturday, North Carolina State fired Doeren, the winningest coach in program history, while Maryland dismissed Locksley earlier last week.
These decisions will only make administrators more comfortable when it comes to making a move in hopes of satisfying outside noise from donors and fans.
I believe it’s unrealistic to give a playcaller half a season to find a rhythm in an offense that has battled injuries, played musical chairs at quarterback, and struggled to establish an identity. And the Ducks’ issues extend well beyond offensive play calling, which makes the decision to move on from Mehringer even more complicated.
Oregon’s only internal candidate with previous experience calling plays is assistant quarterbacks coach Jay Johnson, who will officially take over playcalling duties for the remainder of the season.
Lanning may have even bigger problems to address on the defensive side of the ball. Oregon gave up 225 rushing yards to an Illinois team starting freshman backup quarterback Michael Clayton II.
Last year’s coaching carousel saw DeShaun Foster, Brent Pry, Mike Gundy and Sam Pittman all dismissed before October. It’s apparent this trend will continue as programs feel the pressure to win now and appease those funding the entire operation.
Oregon is just one of several programs facing questions this season. As teams see their College Football Playoff hopes fade, keep an eye out for who has to bear the blame.
Two programs to watch: Michigan and Clemson. Michigan offensive coordinator Jason Beck’s offense ranks 130th nationally, while Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris faces questions of his own as the Tigers have thrown just two touchdown passes this season, the fewest in the FBS. Both teams have failed to live up to expectations this season, an unacceptable showing for programs trying to compete for a national championship.
One Name To Know …
Aidan Chiles has completed 71% of his passes in his first year under center at Northwestern. (Photo by Adam Ruff/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
If you haven’t watched Northwestern’s offense this season, you’re missing out.
No one in the sport is as creative as offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, and the wrinkles he forces defenses to deal with on a week-to-week basis creates headaches for opposing coordinators.
Take a look at this: Kelly installed the Wing-T against Penn State.
The following week, Kelly and the Wildcats broke out a CFL formation against Ball State.
The quarterback tasked with commanding this offense is senior Aidan Chiles, who has thrived in his first year as a Wildcat. Chiles’ journey is like many other QBs in today’s college game. He was a four-star prospect out of Downey High School and committed to Jonathan Smith and Oregon State. After playing sparingly in his freshman year, Chiles followed Smith to Michigan State. That chapter lasted two years and was filled with inconsistent play and an eventual benching, which led to Chiles searching for a new opportunity.
Northwestern head coach David Braun was in need of a quarterback following the graduation of Preston Stone. Chiles made the decision to transfer to Northwestern where he could compete for a starting job. He beat out Ryan Boe and West Virginia transfer Nicco Marichol in training camp to earn the role.
That is where the similarities end.
After transferring multiple times, most quarterbacks struggle to catch on and find the success they are seeking. Chiles, on the other hand, is thriving this season. Through seven games, he has accounted for 21 total touchdowns and has only thrown one interception.
Chiles has always possessed a strong arm with athleticism to be a threat in the run game. But when watching his film, what I’ve been impressed with is his improved ball placement and accuracy.
In past years, Chiles has struggled with short, underneath routes, where ball placement is critical for yards after the catch. This year, he’s improved greatly there, adding nearly 2 yards per reception for Northwestern pass-catchers. His downfield accuracy has also been a remarkable improvement, completing 60% of those throws over 20-plus yards.
Chiles never completed better than 63% of his passes in his two seasons as a starter in East Lansing. This year, he’s completing 71% of his throws, only dipping below that mark in two games this season.
What has impressed me the most with Chiles this season is his ability to transition to a new offensive scheme that is very different from what he was running in the past. Operating under center and running the Wing-T one week, and then executing what appears to be a play out of a CFL playbook the following week is a stark transition, but Chiles has made it look easy.
What won’t be easy is the upcoming schedule for Chiles and the Wildcats, but it offers an opportunity to prove any doubters wrong. Northwestern travels to Oregon this weekend, then hosts Iowa the first weekend of November before traveling to Ohio State and Minnesota in back-to-back weeks.
In a season that’s been full of surprises, maybe Kelly and Chiles have something else up their sleeve.
What I’m Watching …
Ohio State at USC
A potential elimination game for both teams in their hunt for a Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff berth leaves more questions than answers.
Ohio State returns to action after the bye week, but will have to do so without their starting quarterback, Julian Sayin. The assumption is true freshman QB Luke Fahey will get the nod, but how has he been able to surpass sophomore Tavien St. Clair?
St. Clair, a former five-star prospect, has spent more time in the program, and by all accounts, has the more physical gifts, yet Fahey has been the signal-caller Day has trusted when Sayin is out.
Ohio State true freshman quarterback Luke Fahey was a four-star recruit. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)
Fahey’s path to Ohio State has been unique. At one point, the former four-star recruit who played multiple sports, including lacrosse, was splitting reps at quarterback in high school until his senior year. In fact, it was current Ohio State sophomore wide receiver Phillip Bell who caught the attention of Ohio State’s staff, which led to them asking: “Who’s this guy throwing him the ball?”
Fahey, who stands at 5-foot-11, 206 pounds, has been applauded for his work ethic and command of the offense as a true freshman. This might shed some light on why Fahey has surpassed a player that appeared to be the next in line.
There are still plenty of questions to be answered.
What will the offense look like with Fahey behind center? Will there be a package for St. Clair? How will Jeremiah Smith’s role and Heisman campaign be impacted? Can the run game carry Ohio State’s offense like it did during the team’s 2014 run to the national championship?
Ohio State’s rushing offense currently ranks 73rd among FBS teams, but what’s more concerning to me is the lack of explosives. When it comes to runs over 20-plus yards, the Buckeyes rank 112th in the country.
Another question: Why should this be considered a “potential elimination game” for an Ohio State team with only one loss? Simple. I don’t trust the College Football Playoff committee. Look back at 2023 when a 13-0 Florida State team won the ACC championship without its starting QB, Jordan Travis, who suffered a late-season injury. The Seminoles were left on the outside looking in.
If the Buckeyes were to lose to USC – depending on how they look down the stretch – the CFP committee could potentially make a similar decision.
Lincoln Riley’s team suffered another miserable loss to Wisconsin this past weekend. The Badgers appear closer to contending for a Big Ten title this season than Riley has throughout his entire tenure at USC. This USC team proved once again that it lacks physicality (lost the rushing battle by over 100 yards on the ground when you remove sacks), is undisciplined (six penalties, a blocked kick, a dropped kickoff and lost the turnover battle), and is incapable of stopping an offense that only mustered 200 total yards of offense.
Lincoln Riley is 41-20 as the head coach at USC. (Photo by Ronaldo Bolaños/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Does anyone believe Riley can actually lead this program to a conference title, let alone a CFP berth?
I’ll save the talk about “buyout costs” for other national pundits, but it does beg the question: what is the price of winning and is USC willing to make that commitment? LSU did. Three losses won’t be good enough to make this year’s CFP. It likely will once the field expands to 24 teams, but will Riley survive to see that day?
Here’s the beauty of college football: A win this week and the narrative changes, most likely securing Riley’s future for another year. USC is 26-6 at home under Riley, and this season in particular has seen a historic wave of ranked teams being upset on the road, 42 to be exact.
If this game does anything, it will at least provide some answers to many looming questions for both teams.
