Week 6 didn’t go our way, but we’re still positive on the season, and a new week brings new opportunities.
Now, it’s on to a loaded Week 7 slate. Let’s get to my wagers.
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Last Week: 0-3
Season: 16-13
I can’t see the shorthanded BYU offense doing much against the best defense it will face by far. The Cougars struggled mightily vs. Texas Tech last season — another excellent defense (7 TO, 14 points, 3.7 YPP in two games) — and without LJ Martin, will be lacking a huge part of their attack.
The K-State defense has not been very good this year, but it’s facing a unit on the other side — the Kansas offense — which has been just about as bad. After a blowout loss last week to Houston, I’d expect Collin Klein to have the Wildcats ready for their Sunflower State rivals. Klein owned the rivalry as a player and will look to bring a similar mindset as a coach.
Fallica’s Pick: Kansas State -4.5
The Hokies surprisingly lost at Cal last week, but returning home should be enough of a boost to beat up on Georgia Tech, which managed an upset win of its own over Duke last week. The Jackets have managed to lose to Colorado and at Cal this season, so I don’t think there’s any reason to believe they have turned some corner. This feels like the type of game in which James Franklin would like to make a statement.
Fallica’s Pick: Virginia Tech -9.5
Carolina is very close to being 4-1, although I have no idea how the Tar Heels won last week — outside of some very poor play by the Pitt backup and an injury to the Panthers’ top back. Duke has done very well against its Tobacco Road rivals, and look for Nate Sheppard and company to get back on track here after a shock loss to GT last week.
Fallica’s Pick: Duke -3.5
‘Dogs To Play On The Moneyline
Last Week: 2-4, -1.6
Season: 6-10, -1.79
Boston College +195
Indiana +155
TCU +190
Virginia +280
Wisconsin +120
Bear Bytes
There are nine P4 teams that have played at least three P4 opponents this season and have not won a game against any of them. Five of the nine are from the Big Ten (Michigan State and Maryland are 0-4; Rutgers, Washington and Penn State are 0-3). The other four are Arkansas, TCU, Syracuse and Kansas.
Six P4 teams have won at least 10 home games in a row. Half of them are involved in a ranked matchup this weekend, including the teams with the two longest streaks — Indiana (19) and Ole Miss (13) — and two are home underdogs (BYU vs. Notre Dame and Indiana vs. Ohio State). The other such game is Ole Miss hosting Missouri.
No. 2 NOTRE DAME @ No. 8 BYU
Big 12 teams are 5-7 vs. other P4 conferences this season. The five wins have come against Virginia, Arkansas, Oregon, Boston College and Georgia Tech. Those five teams are 5-14 against P4 opponents this season.
The only other time a ranked BYU team hosted a top-three team was the 1990 upset win over defending national champion Miami.
Dating back to Michigan State’s upset win over Ohio State in 2015, double-digit favorites in regular-season top-10 matchups have won 19 straight games. Each of the last four and six of the last seven have covered the big number. Ten of the last 14 have gone under, FWIW. The Irish are the first road team in this role since Alabama’s 29-0 win at LSU in 2018.
BYU has allowed 12.3 PPG vs. P4 teams this season — best among P4 teams. Notre Dame has averaged 42.4 PPG vs. P4 teams this season — second-best among P4 teams.
Notre Dame has outscored its five P4 opponents by 29.2 PPG (best in the nation). Miami is second (+26.7).
Since 2024, Big 12 teams are 1-5 vs. top-10 opponents from the other P4 leagues.
The current Big 12 memberships’ record vs. top-10 teams from the ACC, Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame in the regular season and CFP: 1-5 in the last three years; 6-20 in the last 15 seasons.
BYU in two games vs. Texas Tech last year:
- 7 turnovers
- 14 points
- 227.5 YPG
- 25 drives, 2 TD
- 3.7 yards per play
FLORIDA ST. @ No. 3 MIAMI
Miami has handled Florida schools with ease since 2024. The Canes are 9-0, outscoring opponents by 33.6 PPG (408-106). Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. Florida, Florida State and USF — the other FBS teams in Florida — in that stretch.
Since the start of the 2024 season, Florida State is 5-19 vs. Power 4 opponents. The only teams worse are Arkansas and Oklahoma State at 4-19, Maryland (3-20) and Purdue (2-23).
Miami is the only P4 team to not trail for a second against another P4 team this season. The Canes have led for 2:42:50 of a possible three hours in three games vs. P4 teams.
Florida State has allowed 7.2 YPP vs. P4 opponents this season. Only Stanford, K-State, Rutgers and West Virginia are worse among P4 teams.
No. 4 OHIO ST. @ No. 5 INDIANA
This is the fifth time Indiana has been an underdog under Curt Cignetti. In 2024, IU lost both games and covered neither. Last year, IU won both outright — vs. Oregon and Ohio State.
Including this week, each of the last five regular-season top-five matchups has featured Ohio State. The Buckeyes won three of the first four, with the loss coming at Texas last month.
On third down vs. P4 opponents this season, Indiana is 10-for-10 when it is third-and-3 or fewer, but 5-for-25 when it is third-and-4 or more.
In the last 30 years, there have been seven teams 6-0 or better and ranked in the top five that were home underdogs. Five of the seven lost the game, with the last being 7-0 No. 3 Penn State, which lost to No. 4 Ohio State 20-13 as a 3.5-point ‘dog. The two teams that won: Notre Dame in 2020 vs. Clemson — COVID season, Trevor Lawrence did not play — and Oklahoma in 2000 vs. Nebraska.
LOUISVILLE @ SYRACUSE
Syracuse is 1-12 (11 straight losses) vs. Power 4 teams since the start of last season, allowing 37.5 PPG in that stretch.
UNC @ DUKE
Under Manny Diaz, Duke is 6-0 and 6-0 ATS vs. North Carolina, NC State and Wake Forest. The Blue Devils were not favored by more than 6.5 points in any of the games and were underdogs in two of the six.
North Carolina has been penalized 24.3 YPG in four games vs. P4 opponents. That’s the fewest among P4 teams.
No. 15 KENTUCKY @ OKLAHOMA
Since 1978, there have been 13 instances of an unranked team being favored by a TD or more over a top-15 team. Twelve of the 13 unranked teams won the game, and nine of the 13 covered the number. The only top-15 team to pull the upset was No. 12 Kentucky in 2018, which won at unranked Missouri 15-14 as a 7.5-point dog.
Kentucky has been an underdog four times this season, winning three of the games outright. And in the other instance, the Wildcats led Alabama at halftime before getting blown out in the second half.
Three P4 teams are averaging less than a point per drive this season against P4 teams — Stanford (.98), Oklahoma (.90) and Colorado (.82). OU’s drives have covered an average of 21.5 yards vs. P4 opponents, which is the worst among P4 teams.
Oklahoma is 1-24 on third-and-7 or more this season.
No. 6 ALABAMA @ No. 14 TENNESSEE
Josh Heupel has been an underdog 15 times in the regular season at Tennessee. The Vols have pulled three upsets — two of the three have come in Alabama’s last two visits to Neyland Stadium.
Tennessee has 16 sacks in four games against P4 opponents this season (most in the country).
WISCONSIN @ No. 12 UCLA
In four games vs. P4 teams, UCLA has been the beneficiary of 18 opponent turnovers — five more than any other P4 team. The Bruins’ POT margin is +53 against P4 teams, 15 points better than the next-closest team.
No. 21 WAKE FOREST @ CAL
Wake Forest is averaging 3.45 points per drive in five games vs. P4 teams this season. That’s third-best in the country behind Notre Dame (3.67) and Alabama (3.50).
FLORIDA @ No. 7 TEXAS
Texas has gone three-and-out on 47.4% of its drives vs. P4 teams this season. That’s the highest percentage among P4 teams. Washington is next at 45.9%, followed by Oklahoma at 42.5%.
AUBURN @ No. 1 GEORGIA
Since 2009, AP No. 1 teams are 146-2 vs. unranked teams. The two losses: Alabama at Vanderbilt in 2024 and Alabama at Texas A&M in 2021. The last dozen games have been decided by an average of 34.4 PPG, and none have been closer than 18.
Over the last 40 seasons, AP No. 1 teams are 274-6 as favorites of 20 points or more. The only loss in the last 104 such games is Alabama’s loss at Vanderbilt in 2024. The six losses? 2024 Alabama -22.5 at Vanderbilt, 2012 Oregon -20.5 vs. Stanford, 2008 USC -25 at Oregon State, 2001 Florida -23 at Auburn, 1998 Ohio State -27 vs. Michigan State and 1996 Nebraska -24.5 at Arizona State.
