One sure thing about NFL betting is that there are no sure things.
That played out in NFL Week 5 odds right out of the gate on Thursday night, with the public betting masses on the wrong side.
The Cowboys were the biggest favorite on the board. Dallas faced a Buccaneers side that hadn’t covered in its last 13 games and was starting an undrafted rookie QB in Jalon Daniels.
So of course: Bucs 24, Cowboys 16.
“The Cowboys spent the week as the safest leg on the NFL card. But Thursday night served as a reminder that there are no free squares in the NFL,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
The upset kicked off four days of back-and-forth between sportsbooks and bettors. Oddsmakers from Las Vegas and across the country chimed in to recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting.
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Nothing starts off an NFL week better for sportsbooks — or worse for the masses — than a popular favorite going up in flames. The Cowboys were surely the lead-off hitter on countless moneyline parlays running to Sunday’s NFL games, and perhaps to some Saturday college football, too.
All those parlays went poof before Friday even arrived.
“Undrafted Kansas product Jalon Daniels stunned bettors by leading the winless Buccaneers to the season’s biggest upset,” Feazel said.
Indeed, the Cowboys were 9.5-point favorites, matching the Chargers’ line vs. the Cardinals in Week 1, when L.A. tumbled 26-14. But Dallas’ loss certainly felt like a bigger upset due to the surrounding circumstances.
The Bucs were on an 0-13 slide against the spread (ATS), having not covered since Week 8 of last season. And Tampa was just 2-11 straight up (SU) in that stretch, including 0-4 SU and ATS this season.
Jalon Daniels helped doom bettors win his performance against the Cowboys (Getty Images).
In Sunday’s first game, Eagles vs. Jaguars in London, Jacksonville won in crazy fashion, but didn’t cover the number. More on that in a moment.
Both BetMGM and Caesars Sports said the 1 p.m. ET games — eight in all — generally fell in their favor, even with a lot of favorites winning and covering.
“We got off to a reasonably good start,” BetMGM trading manager Tristan Davis said.
The Raiders and Browns were trendy underdogs on the spread and moneyline, and both failed to deliver. Las Vegas (+3.5) got blown out by the host Patriots 45-17. Cleveland (+2.5), on a three-game SU and ATS win streak, lost to the Jets 17-12 on the road.
“It was a solid early slate for the book,” Feazel said. “Even with the Eagles unable to hold on for the upset in the final seconds of the game, there was healthy Jacksonville action on the spread throughout the week.”
The Jags closed as 7.5-point favorites and were never covering the number. In fact, Jacksonville trailed most of the game, including 17-16 with eight seconds remaining, after Jake Elliott’s 48-yard field goal for Philly.
But Ameer Abdullah returned the ensuing kick 53 yards to the Eagles’ 39-yard line, getting tackled with one second left. Cam Little then booted a 57-yarder to give the Jags an improbable 19-17 win, albeit well short of covering.
Las Vegas entered Week 5 at 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS, the only team with a perfect spread-covering mark. That’s no longer the case.
“The love for the Raiders in Vegas continued into this week, [so] the Patriots’ blowout was another key decision,” Feazel said.
Public Performers
There were only three games in the 4:05 p.m./4:25 p.m. ET window. The Broncos and Lions were popular road favorites, vs. the Chargers and Cardinals, respectively.
Denver (-3.5) once again had to rally, but won and covered 23-17. Detroit (-5.5) ran away from Arizona 45-21.
And the 49ers were another trendy underdog vs. the 3-point home favorite Seahawks. In a back-and-forth battle, San Francisco won outright 32-29.
“Bettors expected fireworks in the 49ers-Seahawks matchup and were not shy about backing San Francisco as the live ‘dog. Points and the 49ers proved to be a popular marriage for the public,” Feazel said.
Added Davis: “The afternoon slate reared its ugly head, which gave the bettors the edge.”
Also helping the masses were the favorites going 9-3 SU and ATS across the early and late windows, and two of those three underdogs being popular with the public: Green Bay and San Fran. The Packers were 1.5-point home ‘dogs and smoked the Bears 45-17.
“Way too many favorites won, way too many favorites covered. And all the money was on the Packers,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said.
The Packers were one of many favorites that won and covered in NFL Week 5 (Getty Images).
Feazel noted that the Texans (1-4 SU and ATS) finally cracking the win column also boosted bettors. Houston was a 6.5-point favorite at Tennessee and rolled 26-3.
“Bettors have been taking the Texans and fading the Titans since Week 1, and that was finally the perfect combination for them to capitalize on,” Feazel said.
Sunday night’s Ravens-Falcons tilt was a big winner for DraftKings customers. Pregame, DraftKings noted that its worst outcome was Baltimore moneyline — a Ravens outright win — and Over 43.5 points scored.
So a 30-23 Ravens overtime victory padded the bettors’ pockets.
However, BetMGM’s Davis and South Point’s Andrews both said they needed a Baltimore outright win. So, as is the case sometimes, different sportsbooks can have different needs.
On Campus
Three outright underdog winners and one key favorite across Saturday’s slate proved too much for the public betting masses to overcome.
Leading the way: Unranked Oklahoma, a 7.5-point neutral-site ‘dog, knocking off No. 1 Texas 27-24 on a Tate Sandel 47-yard field goal as time expired at the Cotton Bowl.
UCLA was a 10-point road underdog to Oregon and shut down the Ducks in a 17-15 upset. USC was a 1.5-point road favorite, but Penn State was a trendy underdog with the public and lost 31-23.
And in the game of the day, 2.5-point road ‘dog Georgia held off Alabama 20-17.
“It was day for the ages for BetMGM. Oklahoma, UCLA, Georgia and USC all winning outright were massive results for the book,” BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. “Oklahoma alone took out a heap of moneyline parlays, which really set the table for the rest of Saturday night.
“It felt like Notre Dame covering was just about the only result that didn’t go our way.”
The Fighting Irish had no trouble with Stanford, winning 58-7 as massive 40.5-point home favorites.
