USC vs. Fresno State Prediction, Odds, Pick For College Football Week 1

The USC Trojans will host the Fresno State Bulldogs at the Coliseum on Friday night in a Week 1 college football matchup on FOX.

USC comes into this Week 1 tilt with a game already under its belt, after beating San Jose State 42-26 in Week 0.

Considering the Trojans entered the game as 38.5-point favorites, the final score doesn’t look all that impressive — but it also doesn’t tell the full story. 

USC pulled its starters in the fourth quarter, and San Jose State proceeded to outscore the Trojans 23-7.

The bright side for USC was the play of Jayden Maiava, who completed 25 of 29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns while adding another score on the ground. True freshman wide receiver Trent Mosley also showed out in his college debut, catching seven passes for 118 yards and a touchdown.

Meanwhile, Fresno State will make its 2026 debut after going 9-4 last season. Fourth-year junior Jayden Mandal has been named the Bulldogs’ starting quarterback and will make just his second collegiate start.

Fresno State also returns seven starters from one of the best defenses in the country last season. The Bulldogs ranked second in the FBS in passing defense (153.8 YPG allowed), fifth in interceptions (20), sixth in opponent completion percentage (53.8%), seventh in takeaways (26) and rushing touchdowns allowed (9), and 10th in total defense (285.7 YPG allowed). They also led the Mountain West in passing defense, interceptions, takeaways and total defense.

Can Fresno State stifle USC’s high-powered offense? 

Let’s take a look at the odds for USC vs. Fresno State at FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sept. 4.

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

Moneyline

• USC: -2500 (bet $10 to win $10.40 total)
• Fresno State: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)

Spread 

• USC -21.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
• Fresno State +21.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

Over/Under

• Over 51.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
• Under 51.5: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

From FOX Sports Research: 

This season feels like make or break for USC. The Trojans are still seeking their first College Football Playoff appearance under Lincoln Riley, and with Riley now entering his fifth season as head coach, the pressure is on. Maiava looked sharp in Week 0, after leading the Big Ten with 3,711 passing yards in 2025. USC also signed the No. 1 recruiting class in the country this offseason, and that young talent was on full display in the opener. The Trojans started five true freshmen, with several others seeing significant playing time. While Fresno State’s defense can pose a challenge, its impressive numbers from last season didn’t come against an offense with USC’s talent. And with Bulldogs starting quarterback Mandal making just his second career start in this type of environment, it’s difficult to see Fresno State keeping pace. Take the Trojans to win big.

How to Watch USC vs. Fresno State

• Date: Friday, Sept. 4, 2026
• Time: 9 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
• Stream: Watch 3 days free on FOX One, FOXSports.com, FOX Sports App
• Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA