2026 NFL Odds: Which QBs Will Surpass 4,000 Passing Yards?

In 2025, only six quarterbacks surpassed 4,000 passing yards. 

Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Drake Maye, Sam Darnold and Trevor Lawrence all accomplished the feat, with Stafford being the only QB to throw for more than 4,700 yards in his MVP season. 

In 2024, six QBs also exceeded the number, with Burrow leading the league with 4,918 passing yards, while Goff and Darnold found themselves on the list in consecutive seasons. 

So, which QBs will top 4,000 passing yards this season?

Let’s check out the latest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Aug. 24.

Matthew Stafford led the NFL in passing yards in 2025 (Harry How/Getty Images).

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

Jared Goff: -135 (bet $10 to win $17.41 total)
Joe Burrow: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Dak Prescott: -110 (bet $10 to win $19.09 total)
Matthew Stafford: +120 (bet $10 to win $22 total)
Brock Purdy: +130 (bet $10 to win $23 total)
Drake Maye: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Trevor Lawrence: +140 (bet $10 to win $24 total)
Josh Allen: +165 (bet $10 to win $26.50 total)
Sam Darnold: +175 (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Caleb Williams: +175 (bet $10 to win $27.50 total)
Patrick Mahomes: +185 (bet $10 to win $28.50 total)
C.J. Stroud: +190 (bet $10 to win $29 total)
Justin Herbert: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Jordan Love: +230 (bet $10 to win $33 total)
Baker Mayfield: +230 (bet $10 to win $33 total)
Bo Nix: +250 (bet $10 to win $35 total)

Here’s what to know about the oddsboard.

The Favorites: In the last two seasons, Jared Goff has been second in the NFL in passing yards, trailing only Joe Burrow in 2024 and Matthew Stafford in 2025. The Lions QB has thrown 4,000+ passing yards in six of his 10 NFL seasons, including in four straight. Goff has the shortest odds at -135 to throw for 4,000+ passing yards once again. Next on the board are Burrow and Prescott. In every season he has remained healthy, Burrow has reached this number with ease. In the other three years, when injuries forced him to miss significant time, he hasn’t come close. Health is wealth, and Burrow’s availability will likely determine whether the Bengals QB reaches this number again in 2026. Similarly, Prescott has surpassed 4,400 passing yards in three of his last five seasons, with injuries limiting him from reaching that mark in the other two. Prescott was third in the NFL last season with 4,552 passing yards. 

Mahomes’ Bounceback: Surprisingly, Patrick Mahomes has led the league in passing yards just once, throwing for a career-high 5,250 yards in 2022. Last season, Mahomes posted a career-low 3,587 passing yards as he dealt with an inconsistent offensive line and receiving corps before missing the final three games of the season with a torn ACL. The two-time MVP has since been fully cleared and is expected to be ready for Week 1 against the Broncos. Before falling short of 4,000 yards in both 2024 and 2025, Mahomes surpassed that mark in each of his first six seasons as a starting QB, including four seasons with more than 4,700 yards. The three-time Super Bowl champion is +185 to get back over 4,000 passing yards in 2026.