Jan. 22—CHAMPAIGN — One of the best seasons in the history of college football — name one that was better — just ended. So, naturally, I’m going to look ahead to the next.
Specifically, who has the best chance to replace Ohio State as the national champion?
Normally, I’d trot out my preseason Top 10. But this is the expanded College Playoff era, so that is two teams too short.
Here is my 2025 preseason Top 12, the teams at the moment I expect to get bids to the CFP. Most of them are logical. And a couple are surprises.
1. Ohio State
Could it be a three-peat for the Big Ten? It will be if the Buckeyes win another national title. A couple items in their favor: first, they bring back the best player in college football, wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. For two more years. Second, it won’t be hard for Ryan Day to sell his team to recruits and transfers. Former Purdue tight end Max Klare already bought in. Others will follow.
Day needs to find a replacement for quarterback Will Howard, but Julian Sayin is ready to go. The defense needs rebuilding. Jim Knowles has the ability to get it done.
It won’t take long to figure out if the Buckeyes are up for another title run. They open the season at home Aug. 30 against Texas, which you will find two spots down the list. Fun.
2. Penn State
The second of four Big Ten teams on this list. The Nittany Lions missed a reasonable chance to play in the title game with a last-second semifinal loss to Notre Dame.
The pressure will be on the Penn State offense, which loses star tight end Tyler Warren, but welcomes back quarterback Drew Allar and the best running back tandem in the country, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
The defense should be solid in the back half, but will miss disruptive end Abdul Carter, who is about to star in the NFL for some lucky team. Penn State has to replace defensive coordinator Tom Allen, who got swiped away by Clemson.
Surviving the conference schedule will be Penn State’s greatest challenge, with Oregon, Indiana and Nebraska visiting Happy Valley and trips to Ohio State and Iowa.
3. Texas
Time for Steve Sarkisian to give Arch Manning the ball and see what all the fuss is about. The nephew of Peyton and Eli will no longer back up Quinn Ewers, who reluctantly got out of the way and is trying the NFL.
If Arch Manning is half as good as the hype promises, they might need to build a statue in Austin. Manning will have some help, starting with running back Quintrevion Wisner. But the team’s best receiver is done and so are two of the top offensive linemen.
The good news is that Sark has been recruiting at a high level and also knows how to use the portal. The Longhorns understand the importance of a run at the title after falling short this season. Manning and the defense will be well-stocked.
The opener at Ohio State will be a chance for the quarterback to move to the front of the Heisman line. It is early enough that a loss won’t end Texas hopes. The SEC schedule is a mixed bag, with trips to Florida and Georgia, but no Alabama, Tennessee or Mississippi.
4. Oregon
The Ducks got a raw deal in this year’s playoff, taking time off then getting ambushed by the eventual national champion. Had Oregon met Ohio State later in the tournament, it would have had a much better chance. Oh, well.
Oregon got hit hard by graduation, with quarterback Dillon Gabriel out of eligibility. Wisely, Dan Lanning added UCLA transfer Dante Moore before the 2024 season. He sat, watched and learned from Gabriel and should be ready from Day 1. Moore will look to receiver Evan Stewart early and often. He will also get immediate help from a star-filled recruiting class.
Linebacker Devon Jackson, son of former Illini Bobby Jackson, leads the defense.
The schedule is set up for a team plugging in new players with four likely wins to open the season before a trip to Penn State. That’s about it. Very surprising if Oregon doesn’t win at least 10 games.
5. Notre Dame
It isn’t a question of will Marcus Freeman win a national title in South Bend, but how many. Already recruiting at a ridiculously high level, Freeman made it easy for top players to say “Yes” by rallying the Irish in what looked like an impossible situation.
If not for a doinked field goal try (it happens), the Green Machine might have pulled it off. Smart move by Freeman to take all the blame for the loss to Ohio State. No throwing guys under the bus.
He must find a quarterback to replace gritty Riley Leonard and the defense gets hit hard. CJ Carr and Steve Angeli will compete to replace Leonard. Both are capable of running an offense that will rely on its run game. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are big-time running backs. So is receiver Jaden Greathouse, who showed up at critical times in the title game.
One of the primary reasons Notre Dame insists on remaining an independent is scheduling. If it was, say, in the Big Ten, it might get Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State in the same season.
Notre Dame is able to pick and choose a schedule that looks impressive to the CFP committee, but has soft spots when needed. The biggest challenges in 2025 are the opener at Miami and visits by Texas A&M, Boise State and Southern California. Pencil in the last five games as all wins.
6. Georgia
Carson Beck has another season of college football that you figured he would use in Athens. Nope. Instead, he takes over at Miami while his replacement during the CFP, Gunner Stockton, gets the full-time gig.
Running back Trevor Etienne will be missed, but there is plenty of talent in the backfield. Tight end is set and receiver gets a boost from transfers Zachariah Branch and Noah Thomas.
The hard-hit secondary will rely on transfers, albeit uber-talented transfers. Folks in Georgia crave another title and are none too happy with back-to-back wins by the Big Ten.
The schedule is doable, with home games against Alabama, Texas and Mississippi and a trip to Tennessee.
7. LSU
Brian Kelly might be feeling the heat in Baton Rouge. So, he loaded up the roster with a dozen players from the transfer portal to end a string of so-so (for them) seasons for the Tigers.
It all starts with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who had to follow the Heisman Trophy winner in Jayden Daniels. He has trained for this and figures to have another big season (he threw for more than 4,000 yards in 2024).
Kelly needs to rebuild the offensive line and also work on a defense that isn’t quite up to past standards.
The Tigers open at Clemson and also play Alabama and Mississippi. But no Texas or Georgia, so thanks for small favors, SEC schedule maker.
8. BYU
The Cougars are having a blast in the Big 12, competing for conference titles with underrated coach Kalani Sitake in charge.
Most important, quarterback Jake Retzlaff returns. Along with his top running back and talented receivers.
The defense brings back four top tacklers, though help is needed up front.
The Cougars don’t play reigning league champion Arizona State. Most of the tricky games are in the final third of the season with consecutive trips to Iowa State and Colorado.
9. Illinois
Don’t really need notes for this one. It all starts with quarterback Luke Altmyer, a rare three-year starting quarterback at Illinois. When he decided to play one more season in C-U, the reality for the team changed.
The low-end goal for Bret Bielema’s team should be making the 12-team CFP. A bigger goal is to be among the top-eight seeds and either a) earn a bye or b) host a playoff game for the first time in school history.
A handful of players who could have left for the NFL announced their return. Left tackle J.C. Davis put a smile on his coach’s face. The defensive front got hit by graduation but the back half is solid assuming linebacker Dylan Rosiek is his old self after recovering from injury.
At receiver, the young guys and transfers need to step in for Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin.
The most difficult game on the schedule is an Oct. 11 visit from reigning national champion Ohio State. The team also hosts Southern Cal, which wasn’t as good as many expected in its first Big Ten season.
Trips to Duke, Indiana, Washington and Wisconsin will show if Illinois is ready for prime time. My hunch is yes.
10. Iowa State
I am a big Matt Campbell fan. The former boss at Toledo has turned Iowa State into a consistent winner, something I thought was impossible when I covered Iowa State 40 years ago (yes, I am old).
Quarterback Rocco Becht returns along with talented running backs. Iowa State lost one of the nation’s best receiver tandems.
The defense figures to be stellar, especially the secondary.
The Cyclones open overseas against Kansas State in Dublin. Both BYU and Arizona State visit Ames, a huge edge for the home team.
11. Clemson
I am not a big fan of Dabo Swinney, who led his team back to the playoffs. Where the Tigers got knocked around by Texas. The window might be closing on Swinney, who has had a long, successful run with the Tigers.
He will pin his hopes on quarterback Cade Klubnik, who will have the benefit of a talented receiving corps.
Pulling Allen away from Penn State to coordinate the defense was a smart move by Swinney. He will quickly put the Tigers in position to improve.
Clemson opens at home against LSU and plays the fourth week at South Carolina (see No. 12). SMU and Syracuse come to Clemson. The Tigers should easily win nine games thanks to playing in a conference that is not what it once was.
12. South Carolina
Here’s hoping there will be no rifts between Shane Beamer and the rest of the SEC head coaches. He seemed a bit distracted at the Citrus Bowl.
Fortunately, Beamer welcomes back quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who showed flashes of his potential in Orlando, Fla. He is only going to get better.
Beamer needs to rebuild the defense, so the talented offense will have to carry the load.
The Gamecocks found help in the portal for the defense and at running back.
South Carolina travels to Missouri, LSU and Mississippi. Alabama visits Columbia, S.C. No Texas or Georgia is always a good thing.
So, how’s that sound for the next 12-team playoff field? Let me know in 11 months.
